Automakers brace for tariff-induced disruptions, price increases
Published in Business News
Automakers have warned of supply-chain disruptions, price increases and softened earnings throughout this year as more of President Donald Trump's automotive tariffs took effect.
Reporting a 64% decline in first-quarter net income from plant retooling and inventory destocking measures, Ford Motor Co. on Monday joined Chrysler parent Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and others in suspending its annual earnings guidance because of tariffs, indicating a need for greater clarity and consistency on trade policy. General Motors Co. last week lowered its forecast after urging investors not to rely on the guidance it provided earlier this year.
Boosted sales in March and April driven by tariff fears aren't expected to last, the companies said. Although they discussed some production, logistics and shipment changes to offset the costs of import taxes, they indicated the duties will cost them billions of dollars and said it might cause the industry to raise prices toward the end of the year, which could hurt demand for new vehicles.
"We've estimated the adverse impact of tariffs as well as partial offsets," Ford Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said on a briefing call. "That said, there are a number of other potential uncertainties. So like many other companies across multiple industries, we felt it prudent to suspend our full-year guidance for 2025."
Although Ford's revenue and earnings per share financial results beat average analyst expectations, shares of Ford, which reported its financial results after the bell, were declining around 2.75% in post-market trading after closing down 1% Monday at $10.17.
Trump last week made adjustments to the 25% auto tariffs he announced in late March on the grounds of protecting national security and building a domestic automotive supply chain. The change limited some tariffs from stacking on top of the auto tariffs and provided two years of offsets for tariffs on imported parts going into vehicles manufactured in the United States. Still, the 25% tariff on more than 100 categories of auto parts, from engines and steering wheels to hinges and more, took effect Saturday in a move analysts and executives expect will increase prices of new vehicles and suppress demand for them.
Ford, which manufactures more vehicles in the United States than its competitors, said its tariff exposure is about $2.5 billion, but with steps it's taking to limit the impact, it expects the import taxes will hurt 2025 adjusted operating earnings by $1.5 billion. GM, which is one of the largest importers of vehicles into the United States, estimates as high as $5 billion in costs from tariffs this year, 30% of which it can absorb with some supply and manufacturing adjustments.
Ford's estimates reflect the expectation that Ford will be reimbursed for the U.S. content in its vehicles imported from Mexico, House said. CEO Jim Farley has emphasized that the company will work with the administration in hopes of addressing auto parts and so-called reciprocal tariffs as well as encouraging incentives for manufacturers like Ford that export vehicles from the United States. GM CEO Mary Barra also has emphasized the need to renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement to offer the industry stability; that is slated for 2026.
"We should just all expect to be a little bit patient during this time to see how these policies kind of work out together," Farley said on an earnings call. "USMCA could be a substantial negotiation and a very important tool for the government and industry to work to transition to more U.S.-sourced parts."
David Whiston, analyst at financial services firm Morningstar Inc., affirmed Ford's view that there remains uncertainty on tariffs.
"Eventually Ford will have to decide if they want to permanently relocate capacity from Mexico back to the U.S." he wrote in an email. "Probably too early to make a decision on that now though as tariff policy has changed multiple times recently.
"The fact that they withdrew guidance but still gave a tariff impact," he continued, "begs the question of why not just give new guidance with tariffs like GM did but they must want to protect themselves from disappointing the market if things get worse this year."
House said Ford manufactures 80% of the vehicles it sells in the United States in the country already, and there aren't plans to manufacture Mexican-built vehicles likes the Maverick, Mustang Mach-E or Bronco Sport in the United States. It's also not adjusting plans to build Super Duty pickups at its idled Oakville Assembly Complex in Ontario, with House noting the credit on U.S. content. But Ford is investing $10 billion for EV and battery capacity in Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee.
"For Ford, this is a continuation, not a course correction," Kumar Galhotra, chief operating officer, said on the earnings call.
Ford suspended the guidance it provided in February for an adjusted operating profit of $7 billion to $8.5 billion. That would've been a 17% to 31% decrease from 2024. The company said that excluding tariff costs, its results were tracking within that forecast, and it'll provide an update on its second-quarter earnings call.
Farley has said the company will look at what its competitors do on pricing in the coming months. The company is offering its customers pricing previously reserved for employees on most of its lineup through the July 4 weekend. House said the company is expecting 1% to 1.5% price increases across the industry in the second half of the year.
"We do think that pricing, if it comes via the top line, would likely come later this summer, when inventory hits dealerships, and would impact the customer," House said. "But if it happens in the form of incentive adjustments, then it could have a little bit more of an immediate impact."
Galhotra also noted Ford is watching the impact of tariffs on its supply chain with disruptions affecting goods such as rare earth minerals out of China having the potential to affect production.
GM on Thursday updated its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance to $10 billion to $12.5 billion. GM previously predicted it would earn between $13.7 billion and $15.7 billion, but that range didn't factor in tariffs.
The updated guidance included current tariff exposure of $4 billion to $5 billion. Barra said the company expects to offset about 30% in part by tightening budgeting and moving more supplies and manufacturing to the United States. The company isn't expecting major price hikes.
GM already has said it's increasing full-size, light-duty truck volume at its Fort Wayne Assembly plant in Indiana, and cited Trump's tariffs on Friday in its decision to cut a shift at its Oshawa Assembly plant in Ontario that produces light- and heavy-duty pickups.
Stellantis last week scrapped its 2025 guidance for positive net revenue growth and adjusted operating income margin in the mid-single digits. The Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram maker suspended European vehicle imports to the United States and paused production at major assembly plants in Canada and Mexico in April. It too is offering employee pricing discounts to customers, currently through May.
Ford's net income was $471 million in the first three months of 2025 on $40.7 billion in revenue, which was down 4.9% year-over-year. That reflected a roughly $200 million impact from tariffs — after Ford obtained 35% offsets, House said, from using bonded trucks to transport vehicles and parts from Mexico through the United States to Canada, stopping vehicle shipments to China and making production changes to the China-built Lincoln Nautilus because of high enough U.S. inventory levels. It also expects U.S.-built products like full-size pickups to become more attractive under pricing pressure on competitors that are importing products.
The company had forecast a flat first quarter because of production downtime at its Kentucky Truck Plant for retooling to accommodate the recently launched fifth-generation Expedition SUV as well as at Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne. Farley last week described Kentucky Truck's revenue as being more than that produced by Southwest Airlines Co., whose operating revenues were $27.5 billion in 2024.
Ford also continues to address its cost structure, quality and warranty expenses, House said. The company is on track for $1 billion in operating profit savings from those measures, excluding the tariff impact.
"We had planned that the cost was going to be significantly different," House said about first-quarter results. "We got a good surprise on warranty that ended up being positive versus our plan."
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