As Boeing continues to recover from the reputational damage following the Alaska Airlines panel blowout in January 2024 and two fatal 737 Max crashes six years ago, industry watchers are asking what's become the perennial question: When will Boeing build its next all-new aircraft?

Boeing walked away from plans to launch a new plane shortly after the fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019, leaving a gap in the market that its European rival Airbus quickly filled. Airbus now outpaces Boeing in orders and deliveries, though Boeing is closing the gap this year as it increases production and scores large international orders.

But, since the crashes, the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's Alaska Airlines blowout, many have wondered when Boeing will return to its new plane and what it will look like.

On Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing may be getting started, citing anonymous sources who said the company is in the early stages of designing a new narrowbody jet to replace the Renton, Washington-built 737 Max.

A Boeing spokesperson said the company is focused on other priorities, but “at the same time, as we have done over the decades, our team evaluates the market, advances key technologies and improves our financial performance, so that we will be ready when the time is right to move forward with a new product.”

The next narrowbody plane is at least 10 years away from launching, aerospace analysts said Tuesday, but it's not a surprise the discussion is starting.

George Ferguson, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, said a replacement for the Max has “been a long time coming.

"If you’re Boeing," he said, it’s time to redo the airplane.”

Replacing the Max

The plane Boeing was set to launch before the deadly Max crashes would have been a middle-of-the-market aircraft, meant to fall in between the 737 narrowbody and the 787 widebody.

When Boeing dropped its plans, still reeling from the deadly crashes that grounded the Max for 20 months, Airbus launched the A321XLR to fill that hole.

Boeing has since worked to claw back its reputation among airlines, regulators and the flying public, but it still lags behind its European rival. Last year, Boeing delivered 348 airplanes while Airbus delivered 766.

Now, Boeing is due for a new narrowbody.

The 737 Max is built on the same airframe that Boeing designed for its first iterations of the 737 more than 60 years ago. Rather than debuting an entirely new single-aisle jet, Boeing instead modified the existing design over the years, changing things like the placement of engines and introducing new software.

Ferguson said those modifications led Boeing to trouble. When designing the 737 Max, Boeing moved the engines forward and, consequently, introduced a new software system meant to help pilots fly the plane. A flaw in that system led to the two fatal crashes that killed 346 people.

“You just don’t want to be in a situation to need a system like that again,” Ferguson said. “They don’t want to go further down that road.”

Meanwhile, Airbus is preparing for its next new plane. It plans to launch a replacement for its single-aisle A320neo in 2030, with entry into service in 2038, according to Scott Hamilton, an analyst with aviation consulting firm Leeham News.

“Boeing must be ready to move when Airbus does,” Hamilton wrote in response to the news Tuesday. “Of course it's working on a 737 replacement. It would be corporate malpractice not to be.”

Choosing an engine

Boeing also needs to design a new airframe to take advantage of new engine technology that will make aircraft more fuel efficient, saving money and helping companies reduce emissions.

The wings on the 737 Max are too low to the ground to fit new, larger engines, which rely on larger fans.

Boeing will have to wait for those new engines to be ready before it can launch a new aircraft. But once the technology is there, it will have its pick of power sources.

A consortium of three companies — GE Aerospace, CFM International and Safran — is working on a new open-rotor engine, which means the blades are not encased in the usual tubelike structure attached to the fuselage. RTX’s Pratt and Whitney is working on an updated geared turbofan engine.

Rolls-Royce is also “pitching” its new engine to Boeing, according to The Wall Street Journal report. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg reportedly visited Rolls-Royce in the U.K. earlier this year to learn about its engine for a new narrowbody aircraft.

Rolls-Royce is “hungry” for a project like a Boeing narrowbody, Ferguson said, because it would guarantee a high volume of planes in production. But he doesn’t expect it will beat out the GE Aerospace joint venture, which builds the engines for the 737 Max and some 787s.

A spokesperson for GE Aerospace said Tuesday “we’re proud of our long-term partnership with Boeing and regularly discuss our technology advancements for the future of flight.”

‘Precursors to a new plane’

Sheila Kahyaoglu, an analyst with Jefferies, told investors in a Tuesday note that Boeing likely was interested in checking out the new engine technology, but that doesn’t change its aims.

Instead, she said, the company remains focused on increasing 737 Max production, certifying its long-delayed 777X family, improving its defense business outlook and restoring its balance sheet. Boeing had $53 billion in debt at the end of the second quarter, according to the company’s financial reports.

Meeting those goals are “precursors to a new plane,” Kahyaoglu wrote.

Historically, it has taken Boeing about five years from the launch of a new aircraft program to entry into service, Kahyaoglu wrote, though that timeline has been stretched for its recent programs, including the 777X and two new Max variants.

Ortberg told analysts at a September conference that the slow certification process will stand in the way of launching a new plane. He hopes to work with the Federal Aviation Administration “in swinging the pendulum back,” and streamlining the certification process after the FAA heightened its scrutiny of Boeing following the deadly Max crashes.

“I can’t imagine that we can do a new airplane without having that process refined,” Ortberg said.

That same month, the FAA said it planned to propose changes to speed up certification of commercial airplanes by the end of this year.

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