Southern California in 'uncharted territory' as extreme fire weather returns next week

Rong-Gong Lin II and Melody Gutierrez, Los Angeles Times on Jan 18, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

LOS ANGELES — Another round of extreme fire weather is expected next week with gusts of up to 80 mph in Southern California, bringing new dangers as Pacific Palisades, Altadena and surrounding communities struggle to assess the damage of devastating wildfires earlier this month.

“The bottom line is: we’re in uncharted territories this deep into the winter, or rainy season,” in having barely any rain, said Alex Tardy, a National Weather Service meteorologist in San Diego.

After mostly calm winds over the weekend, fire weather is expected to return Monday, with the peak threat arriving that night through Tuesday morning, but it could persist through Thursday, forecasters said. Red flag fire weather warnings are expected for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, said Rose Schoenfeld, a weather service meteorologist in Oxnard.

“We’re looking at another period of long-duration fire weather concerns here,” Schoenfeld said.

All this fire weather comes amid a continuing record-setting dry spell, which could break Jan. 25 to Feb. 1 when there is a 20% to 30% chance of rain. That potential rain, Schoenfeld said, is expected to be on the lighter side and “doesnt look like the kind of rain that would really put a complete end to fire weather season.”

The last day downtown Los Angeles saw more than one-tenth of an inch of rain on a single day was May 5. Since May 6, there hasn’t been a single day with one-tenth of an inch of rain or more, for 257 days and counting.

That’s a record for downtown — the previous mark was 253 consecutive days, from Feb. 25, 2008, to Nov. 3, 2008.

And across Southern California, this has been the driest start to the water year on record. For the three-and-a-half-month period that began Oct. 1, so little rain has fallen that it is the driest period for this time frame for Los Angeles International Airport, UCLA, Van Nuys, Woodland Hills and Camarillo.

For downtown L.A., only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen since Oct. 1. The average annual rainfall for downtown L.A. over the same time period is 5.78 inches, meaning downtown L.A. has received only 3% of the rainfall the city gets on average by this time in the water year.

The severe dryness, combined with week after week of Santa Ana winds, is unusual.

Strong Santa Ana winds are forecast for Monday and Tuesday, particularly 10 a.m. to 10 p.m., with sustained gusts of 45 mph to 65 mph expected across Santa Ana wind corridors of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Wind speeds as high as 80 mph are forecast in the mountains and foothills.

The Santa Ana winds, Schoenfeld said, are expected to come from the northeast to east, predominantly affecting Ventura County and higher-elevation areas of western Los Angeles County,” Schoenfeld said.

The air is also expected to be very dry. Relatively humidity on Tuesday could hit as low as 5% in Thousand Oaks, Oxnard, Canoga Park, Fillmore, Santa Clarita, Acton and Pyramid Lake.

Given the potential effects of the strong winds and extreme fire weather, Schoenfeld urged residents to plan ahead, ensuring medication is packed, vehicles are ready and evacuation routes are planned.

“And then when wind does start, stay away from trees, windows and use extreme caution again with anything that could start a fire,” Schoenfeld said.

The Palisades and Eaton fires have burned more than 11,000 structures and killed at least 27 people. As of Saturday morning, the Palisades fire had burned 23,713 acres and was 43% contained, according to the state Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The Eaton fire, which has charred 14,117 acres, was 73% contained.

Meanwhile, the search for missing fire victims continues.