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Fire-weary L.A. faces more dangerous winds; officials say they are prepared

Rong-Gong Lin II, Colleen Shalby, Keri Blakinger and Hannah Fry, Los Angeles Times on

Published in News & Features

LOS ANGELES — Southern California is heading into a day of its most extreme fire weather with bone-dry vegetation and strong Santa Ana winds that officials warn could turn a small blaze into a massive inferno.

A “particularly dangerous situation” warning is set to go into effect Monday at noon and last through Tuesday at 10 a.m. for swaths of Los Angeles County and most of Ventura County — an unprecedented fifth time the National Weather Service has sounded the alarm this season for acute fire conditions.

Peak gusts of 50 mph to 70 mph are possible along the coast and valleys, while sustained winds are expected to be between 25 mph to 40 mph. Isolated gusts of up to 100 mph are possible in the mountains and foothills, while sustained winds there are expected to be between 30 mph to 50 mph, said Rose Schoenfeld, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.

A “particularly dangerous situation” is an enhancement of a red flag warning, which already warns of critical fire weather and the rapid spread of fire should an ignition occur.

What makes this “particularly dangerous situation” so distinct from the four earlier warnings of this kind since November is that “this may be one of the driest fire weather events that we’ve seen so far this year,” Schoenfeld said.

Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said during a news conference Monday that the fire department has deployed all available resources and positioned fire patrols and engines in high-risk areas across Los Angeles including in Sun Valley, Woodland Hills, West Los Angeles and Hollywood.

Officials have also issued parking restrictions in specific locations to allow for rapid response to hillside communities if a fire ignites. Staffing levels for this wind event are higher than what the city had ready during the strong winds that ignited the Eaton and Palisades fires earlier this month, Crowley said.

“I urge everyone to stay alert as danger has not yet passed,” Crowley said.

The fire department has 30 pre-deployed rigs and 64 augmented engines that supplement the regular firefighting force in such emergencies staffed for this wind event. During the Jan. 7 winds, the department had 14 pre-deployed engines and 15 augmented engines, Crowley said.

The agency has been criticized for its preparation for the devastating winds that sparked the Palisades fire and damaged thousands of structures, including many homes.

Crowley and other top officials have defended their decisions, saying they had to juggle limited resources while continuing to handle 911 calls unrelated to the fire, which doubled the day it started, Jan. 7, because of wind damage elsewhere in the city. LAFD officials have also claimed that the firefighting effort was hampered by budget constraints and low water levels for some fire hydrants.

Mayor Karen Bass said Monday that the planning measures in place this week have the city “well positioned to deal with any fires that might break out.”

Areas in the “particularly dangerous situation” in Los Angeles County include the northern San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys, Malibu, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, the Santa Clarita Valley and other areas to the north.

They include Altadena and Pasadena, but also areas to the northwest, from La Crescenta to the Porter Ranch area.

The northern San Gabriel Valley areas affected by the “particularly dangerous situation” are north of Interstate 210, which includes Altadena and a large part of Pasadena. The parts of the San Fernando Valley in this warning area include Reseda and Burbank and areas to the north.

Much of Ventura County is also in the “particularly dangerous situation,” including Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, Ventura, Camarillo, Moorpark, Santa Paula, Port Hueneme and Fillmore.

Areas in a “particularly dangerous situation” face “the extreme of extreme conditions — almost as bad as it can get,” said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard.

Depending on the type of fuel burning, if a fire ignites, the anticipated rates of spread with the expected wind speeds are 1 to 4 mph with spotting up to 2 mph, said Dennis Burns, a fire behavior analyst.

“If a fire were to ignite and get into structures that spotting distance would probably increase to close to four miles,” he said. “So if you do the math, an eight-hour event at 4 mph, the fire has the potential to spread up to 32 miles.”

Another challenge, Burns said, is that if a fire ignites amid 30- to 40-mph winds, firefighting aircraft may not be able to fly, which could significantly hamper efforts to get a blaze under control quickly.

“It’s kind of a dire prediction,” he said. “Hopefully nothing does occur today.”

Forecasters say wind speeds are likely to fall between what the region experienced on Jan. 7 when the Eaton and Palisades fires broke out and the weaker Santa Ana wind event last week.

“It’s not going to be as long or as severe at Jan. 7, but there is strong indications that it will be stronger and more widespread than what happened on Jan. 13,” said James White, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service working on the Eaton fire.

A conventional red flag warning went into effect at 8 a.m. Monday for a much larger swath of Southern California, and is expected to persist through 10 a.m. Tuesday.

The red flag warning in L.A. County also includes the San Gabriel Valley, the Palos Verdes Peninsula and Santa Catalina Island. Inland San Diego and Orange counties and large swaths of Riverside and San Bernardino counties are also included.

Thousands of people across Southern California could lose power during the winds as utilities including Southern California Edison consider public safety power shutoffs.

More than 40,000 SCE customers in Los Angeles County are under consideration for such power shutoffs, which aim to mitigate threats in areas where the utility’s equipment could be at a high risk of sparking a wildfire.

More than 52,000 SCE customers in Ventura County, 57,000 in San Bernardino County, 83,000 in Riverside County and 11,000 in Orange County are also under consideration for shutoffs, the utility said Monday.

Red flag fire weather warnings announced for large swaths of Southern California from Monday morning until Tuesday.

 

Unlike the Jan. 7-8 windstorm, where winds came out of the north and northeast, this week’s Santa Ana winds are expected to be more traditional, and will head from the east and northeast, forecasters said.

That’s why forecasters expect one of the most affected areas will be the Santa Ana wind corridor that extends from Palmdale toward points southwest, including Santa Clarita and Ventura, as wind heads toward the coast.

The strongest winds are expected from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

“The good news is that unlike Jan. 7 where those winds continued for a very long period of time, the period of time for these winds is pretty short. The time when we have a potential for those strongest winds to mix down is only about eight hours or so,” White said. “Unfortunately, it’s going to be even drier than it was during that event and the dry weather is going to continue.”

Relative humidity could be down to just 3% for some areas, with the driest air likely on Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected to continue through Thursday, White said.

As officials prepare for potentially destructive winds, some residents in the Palisades and Eaton fire zones have begun returning to their homes. Officials urge them to remain vigilant.

As of Monday, the Palisades fire, which has burned more than 23,700 acres and killed at least 10 people, was 59% contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The Eaton fire, which has charred more than 14,000 acres and killed at least 17 people, was 87% contained.

Officials have said they expect the death toll to continue to rise. There are still 27 people reported missing from the fire zones — 20 from the Eaton fire and seven from the Palisades, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department.

Officials on Monday confirmed that at least 6,051 structures have been destroyed in the Palisades fire and 9,416 had been destroyed in the Eaton fire.

Despite the expected winds, fire officials on Monday said they don’t expect the Eaton fire to expand outside its current footprint. Crews working the fire could be redeployed elsewhere if another blaze breaks out.

An extreme lack of rain has played a major role in explaining Southern California’s fire woes, where vegetation is parched and flammable, making brush far more likely to turn into a spot fire should an ember land on it.

But wet weather may be on the horizon.

There’s a 50% to 70% chance of rain starting Saturday and lasting for the following two days — but also a 20% to 30% chance of thunderstorms. That could bring heavy rain in some isolated areas, and the risk of flooding near recently burned areas.

The good news is that there’s a chance of mostly beneficial showers, which could help dampen the fires. And it’s a cold storm, which would bring snow levels down to 4,000 feet above sea level, reaching some mountain communities, Schoenfeld said.

“If we were to get enough beneficial rain, it would really be a game changer for the fire weather,” Schoenfeld said.

The last time downtown L.A. got more than one-tenth of an inch of rain in a single calendar day was on May 5. It has now been 259 days since then — a record for downtown of not getting at least one-tenth of an inch of rain. The previous record for downtown was from Feb. 25–Nov. 3, 2008, a record 253 consecutive days without a tenth of an inch of rain.

Downtown L.A. has received only 0.16 of an inch of rain since the water year began Oct. 1. That’s only 3% of the average at this point in the water year, which is 5.99 inches. The annual average rainfall for downtown is 14.25 inches.

Ahead of the winds, forecasters have urged people to take action to reduce the risk of any kind of ignition or a spread of fire, and to prepare for strong, damaging winds.

Residents should secure loose outdoor items such as patio furniture; adjust travel times between Monday night and Tuesday morning; charge up electronics, flashlights and battery packs; fill up the fuel tanks of emergency generators; and move cars away from trees that appear fragile, Schoenfeld said.

Experts warn people against keeping certain items within five feet of your home, such as outdoor furniture, umbrellas, garbage and recycling bins. Getting rid of all dead or living weeds is also a good idea, as is clearing gutters, roofs, decks, porches and stairways of flammable materials such as leaves and needles.

“And then when wind does start, stay away from trees, windows. And use extreme caution, again, with anything that could start a fire,” Schoenfeld said.

This week’s alert is an unprecedented fifth “particularly dangerous situation” enhancement to a red flag warning in a single season by the weather service’s Oxnard office, which covers Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

The first three times the office issued that warning were followed by fires igniting and spreading rapidly — the 19,904-acre Mountain fire in Ventura County in November, which razed 243 structures; the 4,037-acre Franklin fire, which spread rapidly in Malibu and destroyed 20 buildings in December; and this month’s Palisades and Eaton fires, among the most destructive and deadliest in modern California history.

The need for, essentially, a red alert for a red alert became clear after the devastating Thomas fire of 2017, which destroyed 1,063 structures in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties; and the Woolsey fire of 2018, which destroyed 1,643 structures in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Both were among the most destructive fires in Southern California’s modern history.

Amping up that messaging has seemed, sometimes, to work. In late 2019, the weather service office overseeing the Bay Area referred to a red flag warning as potentially “historic” and “extreme,” which got significant attention. At the time, firefighters credited an extraordinary marshaling of firefighting resources as critical to keeping fires in Northern and Southern California from becoming far worse.

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Times staff writer Connor Sheets contributed to this report.

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©2025 Los Angeles Times. Visit at latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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