Xi risks becoming top US threat if Trump cuts deal with Putin

For President Xi Jinping, an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine brings many opportunities and one major threat: China would suddenly become the main focus of the U.S. military.

U.S. and Russian officials have started talks in Saudi Arabia to negotiate an end to the three-year war, prompting deep concern in Europe and Ukraine itself over whether Donald Trump will effectively hand a victory to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

China has publicly welcomed the talks, and is positioning itself to benefit from reconstruction efforts — as well as the deepening rift among the U.S. and its allies over NATO, the meaning of democracy and the international rules-based order.

The one major problem for Beijing is what Trump plans to do next. The comments from those around the Republican, including Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth and his eldest son Donald Trump Jr., indicate the U.S. wants to focus the bulk of its military assets on countering China.

“Beijing is in a Catch-22 situation,” said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing who has worked as a consultant for China’s Commerce Ministry. “It wants the war to stop, or at least be suspended,” he added. “But it’s not so much interested in becoming the No. 1 priority issue for Washington.”

China has, so far, avoided any action that might provoke Trump, responding to his 10% tariff with modest moves and refraining from the aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy rolled out in his first term. Xi is instead focused on the economy, which is battling a yearslong property crash, sticky deflation and sluggish consumption. The Chinese leader met Alibaba’s once-shunned Jack Ma this week to close a chapter on regulatory crackdowns and boost animal spirits as Beijing prepares to unveil its annual growth goal next month.

Trump himself has struck a less belligerent tone on China, telling reporters Wednesday a trade deal was “possible” and again trumpeting his “very good relationship” with Xi. But his administration is stacked with China hawks, including Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has pledged to address Beijing’s “destabilizing actions” in the South China Sea.

China would be sensitive to any stepped up attention over its actions in the Indo-Pacific, where it has territorial disputes with the Philippines as well as self-ruled Taiwan. Beijing previously accused the U.S. of trying to build a Pacific version of NATO, as the Biden administration strengthened security alliances with Japan and South Korea.

Displaying its ambition to project military power across Asia-Pacific, the Chinese navy this week has three warships sailing in international waters off the coast of Sydney in a voyage the Australian defense minister branded “unusual.”

Indicating Trump’s team could already be taking a stronger stance in Asia, the U.S. State Department this month deleted a phrase from a fact sheet saying the U.S. does “not support Taiwan independence” — a line Beijing frequently demands nations it has diplomatic ties with endorse. It was unclear if the change was intentional, and the U.S. maintained it endorsed its long-standing “one-China policy.”

Taiwan is keeping a close eye on the latest developments, as Trump warns Volodymyr Zelenskyy that if the Ukraine doesn’t strike a deal quickly with Russia then “he is not going to have a Country left.” His administration has also signaled sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table.

One diplomat from the self-governing island, which China claims as its own, said although relations between Russia and the U.S. will improve, the most important thing for Taiwan is to prove its value to Trump.

The twist for Taipei — and Beijing — is that Trump’s own policy can differ from that of his cabinet. On the campaign trail, the Republican demanded Taiwan pay the U.S. for security and cast doubt over former President Joe Biden’s repeated pledge to defend the island from China.

While there’s no indication Xi plans to invade anytime soon, a softer stance from Taipei’s biggest military backer could make it more vulnerable to pressure campaigns from Beijing.

Another scenario could see China participate in a Trump-led Ukraine deal. The U.S. leader has floated the possibility of a three-way meeting with Putin and Xi, in which he suggested they’d agree to cut defense spending in half — an idea Beijing swiftly rejected.

What China could offer Ukraine remains unclear. Defense Secretary Hegseth has said American military wouldn’t be deployed, and any “security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.” That leaves the door open to some kind of United Nations peacekeeping force, which could include Chinese troops, although a direct dispatch from China can’t be ruled out.

Beijing could play a “leading role” with Global South and non-NATO countries in peacekeeping, according to Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army and senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy. “Being China’s first ever direct involvement in the security of Europe, it would promote China’s image and boost its international standing,” he added.

China’s Foreign Ministry has declined to comment on whether Beijing would participate in any such mission, when asked at regular briefings.

A cessation of hostilities in Ukraine also presents Beijing with a “rare opportunity” to repair its damaged relations with Europe, according Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China at Chatham House.

Beijing could offer assistance in reconstructing Ukraine, leveraging its vast experience building infrastructure abroad through extending cheap credit under its $1 trillion Belt and Road initiative. China signaled its willingness for such efforts in a 2023 position paper on the conflict, saying: “China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavor.”

Inserting its military and money into Ukraine’s peace process could complicate Xi’s “no limits” relationship with Putin, if Moscow launched another invasion. There’s little sign recent developments between Russia and the U.S. would fracture those ties, with Xi planning a visit to Moscow in May.

Facing a fickle U.S. leader in Trump, China is more likely to play the long game, according to Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. After all, barring any health issues, Putin is able to stay in the Kremlin until at least 2036, probably far outlasting Trump.

“Why would you sacrifice a relationship with a strategic partner who will be around for as long as you can see for somebody who changes his mind all the time and who is not trustworthy?” he added.

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(With assistance from Yian Lee and Lucille Liu.)

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