As former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte rallied supporters in Hong Kong on Sunday, his team seemed unconcerned about rumors that the International Criminal Court might soon issue an arrest warrant against him.

Despite a bitter political feud with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Duterte’s team believed any legal action would first take place in the Philippines, said Harry Roque, Duterte’s former spokesman, in a phone interview from The Hague.

It was a fatal mistake.

In a span of two days, Duterte went from that Hong Kong rally to sitting glumly on a private jet delivering him to prosecutors at The Hague, where he faces accusations of being responsible for the extra-judicial killing of thousands of people from 2011-2019.

“He didn’t expect the government to humiliate him,” said lawyer Raul Lambino, a member of Duterte’s political party and legal team. “He’s always maintained that if he’ll be imprisoned or killed, that it’ll happen in his country.”

However the case at the ICC ends, the reverberations from the arrest and extradition won’t subside soon. The Philippines was already reeling from the impeachment of Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, last month over accusations she asked someone to kill the president. With that fight still playing out, the nation faces midterm elections in May which could determine the outcome of the impeachment trial.

“This is a political ploy of the Marcos regime,” Roque said. “They got rid of the biggest threat to the Marcos administration, and I’m just sad that the ICC” fell for a “Marcos ploy,” he added.

Marcos has pressed back on those accusations. He said the government was “just doing its job” by cooperating with Interpol and rejected accusations that there was any political persecution.

“The arrest we did today was in compliance with our commitments to Interpol,” Marcos said Tuesday. “It just so happened it came from ICC. But it’s not because it came from ICC, it’s because it came from Interpol.”

The ICC Office of the Prosecutor, in a statement Wednesday, said its investigation showed there were “reasonable grounds to believe that Mr. Duterte bears criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder.”

If Duterte’s family and supporters really did believe that the man known as “The Punisher” would be able to fight extradition in the Philippines, that illusion collapsed when police and an Interpol representative met the 79-year-old upon his return to Manila.

The ex-president had been prepared to surrender himself “to the jurisdiction of Philippine authorities, not the ICC,” Sara Duterte told reporters Tuesday night, when she said she attempted to join her father at the airbase where he was detained for hours but was barred.

A last-minute appeal to the Supreme Court quickly failed. Their options dwindling, the Duterte family fought to stave off the inevitable.

In what he characterized as deference to the Duterte family’s pleas, the police general who led the arrest, Nicolas Torre, said on Thursday that the ex-president was given time to rest, get adequate food and receive medical attention while he conferred with lawyers. But as the hours dragged on, Torre said he felt like the requests had become just another delaying tactic.

In a video shared by another Duterte daughter, Veronica, Torre can be heard telling Salvador Medialdea, a top former aide to the president, “We can do this the hard way. We can do this the easy way.”

The “easy way” was to pick three people to accompany Duterte on the plane to The Hague, immediately. The “hard way” was left unsaid. The former president boarded the chartered Gulfstream G550 jet, first to Dubai and then The Hague. In a Facebook video en route, he told his supporters not to worry.

His family was furious. Sara Duterte called the move a “state kidnapping” and, in a March 11 statement, said the extradition was “a blatant affront to our sovereignty.”

Yet in retrospect, she said she may have seen it coming.

In 2023, Marcos publicly and privately rejected the ICC’s jurisdiction in the case. In a Dec. 15, 2023 letter to the vice president seen by Bloomberg News, Marcos said he remained “steadfast in my resolve that the jurisdiction of the ICC over the Republic of Philippines after the effectivity of its withdrawal therefrom is very much in question.”

Crucially, he added: “To this end, this government will not assist the ICC in any way, shape, or form.”

He reiterated that stance in January 2024. But a few months later, when Sara Duterte was serving concurrently as education secretary, she sensed something was changing during a conversation with Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla.

“I noticed that he had very vague answers” when talking about the government’s position, the vice president said this week. The family started to prepare for battle, she added. But they weren’t ready for how quickly their plans fell apart.

Duterte still maintains a solid base of support in the Philippines, where many citizens lauded his “tough on crime” approach to drug trafficking. It’s too soon to tell if sympathy will build for him and even help sway the election.

But with previous ICC cases having dragged on for years, it’s suddenly possible that a man whose opponents say ruled with near impunity — and who is now the first former Asian leader to be served an ICC arrest warrant — will never step foot in the Philippines again.

Roque, the former spokesman, said the legal team’s priority will be to get provisional release and expedited procedures for the ex-president. Roque cited Duterte’s advanced age as one reason to get him out of the ICC facility.

“I want to move quickly because of his old age,” Roque said in the interview. “I don’t think he can stay in a detention center.”

Before landing in the Netherlands ahead of a Friday court appearance, Duterte said in a video posted on his Facebook account that he’d be taking responsibility for “whatever happened in the past.”

“This will be a long legal proceeding but I say to you, I will continue to serve my country and so be it if that’s my destiny,” Duterte added.

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With assistance from Manolo Serapio Jr..

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