Marcos-Duterte feud spurs surprise gains by 'third force' in Philippine vote

Andreo Calonzo, Bloomberg News on May 13, 2025

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Two liberal Philippine politicians have emerged as key players after a surprisingly strong performance in Senate elections, gaining support from a bloc of voters dissatisfied with rancor between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his deputy Sara Duterte.

After trailing in surveys and losing in previous elections, Bam Aquino and Francis Pangilinan are unexpectedly returning to the Senate following Monday’s midterm elections. Aquino, the relative of two former presidents, won the second-most votes of candidates competing for 12 Senate seats and led the count in the vote-rich metropolitan Manila, according to GMA News. Pangilinan came in fifth.

“They sneaked in, showed they still have a strong base that they have been able to maintain the constituency that supported the anti-Marcos, anti-Duterte vote in 2022,” Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of risk consultancy Teneo, told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

While Marcos and Duterte teamed up to win the 2022 elections, their alliance has dramatically collapsed. The vice president remains furious that Marcos handed over her father, ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, to the International Criminal Court to face charges over alleged crimes against humanity. Sara Duterte herself was impeached by Marcos allies over the alleged misuse of funds and a threat to assassinate Marcos, which she denies.

While the midterms boosted the Dutertes, some voters appeared turned off by the two feuding leaders. That helped Aquino and Pangilinan, who avoided the Duterte-Marcos row and focused on livelihood issues such as food, education and jobs.

Progressive political group Akbayan, which includes Marcos-Duterte critic, Senator Risa Hontiveros, was the surprise leader in the party-list elections for the House of Representatives. A party-list led by former Senator Leila de Lima, who was detained during Duterte’s term, is also poised for a seat in Congress. Opposition figure and former Vice President Leni Robredo won as mayor in her bailiwick.

Aquino and Pangilinan may have also won the support of younger voters, according to Francisco Magno, director of the De La Salle University Institute of Governance in Manila. Some 60% of voters are composed of millennials and Gen Zs.

The Marcos and Duterte camps both have to contend with the stronger-than-expected performance by liberals and progressives in the midterms, especially as the families seek to stay in power through the 2028 presidential elections, Teneo’s Herrera-Lim said.

“They now have to start thinking about the middle vote,” he said. “You have a third force, and it’s not going to be just Marcos versus Duterte going forward.”

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—With assistance from Cecilia Yap and Cliff Venzon.