Who's favored to win the nationwide redistricting civil war?

WASHINGTON — California is a crucial battlefront in a coast-to-coast political civil war over congressional redistricting, a war that Republicans nationally appear better positioned to win.

“If all these Republican processes go through, even if California goes through, Republicans are probably going to end up winning this redistricting war,” said Matthew Klein, U.S. House and governors’ race analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

It’s easier for Republicans in states they dominate to redraw the maps, he explained, and the GOP is aggressively weighing whether to do so in Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and Texas.

At the same time, there are potential roadblocks to mid-decade redistricting, a strategy almost unheard of.

“Right now it seems there’s a political posturing to this where everybody is all taking a swing at this,” said Lee Miringoff, polling director at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York. “Whether they actually connect is probably going to be in court cases.”

President Donald Trump and his allies are aggressively trying to get congressional maps redrawn in Republican-friendly states. Democrats are seeking ways to fight back in California, New York, Illinois and elsewhere.

In Washington, Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., who could be redrawn into a new, tougher-to-win district, is gaining support for legislation that would bar mid-term redistricting.

And congressional leaders are using their muscle to create momentum for and against any plans to hurt their parties’ chances of controlling Congress

Controlling the U.S. House

Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the 2026 election to regain control of the House for the first time since January 2023.

History is on their side, as the party holding the White House traditionally loses a lot of seats in the middle of their term.

Trump’s Republicans lost a net 40 seats in 2018 and Democrats regained control of the House. Republicans won back control in the middle of President Joe Biden’s term in 2022, as they gained nine seats.

While it’s still early to predict any outcomes, polling shows Trump’s popularity sliding and Republican issues less popular. Inside Elections, a nonpartisan group that analyzes political races, says races for eight GOP House incumbents are toss-ups. Democrats have three in that category, including Reps. Adam Gray, D-Calif., and Derek Tran, D-Calif.

An August 9-11 Economist/YouGov poll had Trump’s approval rating at 42% while 54% disapproved.

A Democrat-controlled House would create political havoc for Trump. Democrats would not only set the chamber’s agenda, but could launch investigations of the administration.

The Republican offensive

Trump and his allies have been unusually bold in trying new strategies to maintain control, according to media reports and conversations with analysts around the country.

Texas ignited the fire with its efforts to redraw its maps with the hope of gaining at least five more seats. California and Gov. Gavin Newsom struck back, creating their own new map aimed at winning five new Democratic seats.

Now Republicans are eyeing a host of GOP-friendly seats. In Indiana, Vice President JD Vance met with state officials last week, and state Republicans are weighing whether to act.

In Florida, House Speaker Daniel Perez sent a memo to lawmakers last week saying he was creating a new committee on congressional redistricting. The Miami Herald reported that whether it can act in time for the 2026 election is unclear.

Officials are also weighing whether to redistrict in Indiana and Ohio, NPR has reported. Both states have huge legislative Republican majorities, big enough to overcome Democratic opposition.

In Missouri, Republicans are reportedly considering breaking up the Kansas City-based district of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., but also faces strict laws making mid-decade change difficult, NPR Kansas City reported.

Democrats fight back

Democrats vigorously dispute the notion that Republicans have an advantage in the redistricting wars.

“Republicans are running scared. They know they can’t win on the issues, so they are resorting to rigging the system in a desperate scheme to save their miniscule majority,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

She vowed “Democrats everywhere are prepared to fight back, using every tool at our disposal.”

Democrats, though, appear to have fewer opportunities to change the maps in this cycle.

“It’s much more complicated for Democratic states,” said Darrell West, senior fellow at Washington’s Brookings Institution. “They tend to have independent redistricting commissions.”

Many of the Republican states in play don’t.

In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is said to be sympathetic to having new lines, but state law makes that nearly impossible until the 2028 election, Spectrum News reported.

In Illinois, Gov. JB Pritzker has warmed to the idea, though it’s unclear where he could draw new lines favorable to Democrats.

There’s also talk in heavily Democratic Maryland of redrawing the state’s only GOP district, but that would be geographically tough because of how much of that district is east of the Chesapeake Bay.

Even in California, nothing is assured. The redistricting effort has to survive the Legislature, court challenges and voters in November.

“That fight is going to be long and ugly,” said political analyst Klein.

Congress weighs in

In Washington, there’s action on two fronts.

Speaker Mike Johnson made it clear this week that he’ll do all he can to stop California’s bid. Redistricting, he said, is not only a bad idea, but a vanity mission for Newsom.

“Gavin Newsom’s latest attempt to disenfranchise millions of California voters was written in the dark of night” by party officials, Johnson said.

“This is a slap in the face to Californians, who overwhelmingly support the California Citizens Redistricting Commission,” the Louisiana Republican said.

Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has vowed to fight Republican efforts across the country.

Asked on ABC News last week if the Democrats were starting a redistricting arms race, the New York Democrat said that has already begun.

“Certainly, under these circumstances, one cannot unilaterally disarm. The Republicans are counting on that as part of their scheme to try to steal the midterm elections and gerrymander these congressional maps with impunity across the country,” he said. “We’re not going to stand for it.”

But will members of Congress support Kiley’s legislation, which would bar mid-term line-drawing? Passage of his legislation would cool all these efforts.

Congress doesn’t return to Washington until Sept. 2, but there appears to be sentiment from members of both parties for legislation to stop the mid-term redistricting.

“Both parties have engaged in gerrymandering,” Kiley said. “The entire justification for redrawing district lines is absent. The entire process is motivated by partisanship through and through.”

_____