Hurricane center says disorganized Caribbean-bound system could still become tropical depression

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 5, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Friday lowered the chances a system moving across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean that could become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the broad area of low pressure dubbed Invest 91-L associated with a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic had limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Although upper-level winds are generally favorable for development, environmental dry air is likely to limit development over the next couple of days,” forecasters said. “However, a tropical depression could still form early next week as the system moves westward at around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.”

It’s forecast to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to late part of next week.

The NHC gave it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% chance to develop in the next seven. That’s lower since Friday morning’s forecast that had increased chances to 90% the system would develop in the next week.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said it’s too early to say if the system will have any impact on Florida.

Forecast tracking models keep shifting, but several have it venturing over either the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands or Windward Islands, and potentially threatening Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

If it develops, it would be the seventh tropical cyclone of the season and could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Only one of the six named storms — Hurricane Erin — reached hurricane status, and that one grew to a powerful Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, although never made landfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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