Hurricane center gives 90% chance system will form, begins tracking second Atlantic system

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 16, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said an Atlantic system is expected to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, while also beginning to track a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, an area of low-pressure with showers and thunderstorms in the central tropical Atlantic about midway between the Caribbean’s Windward Islands and the west coast of Africa has become better organized since Monday.

“Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC’s forecast area of formation has it steered away from the Caribbean and likely headed into the open ocean.

The NHC gave it a 90% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

If it were to develop into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Also on Tuesday, the NHC began to watch a tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa with an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Some slow development of this system is possible towards the latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The next name after Gabrielle would be Humberto.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was on Sept. 10, but 60% of annual activity has historically happened after this date, the NHC stated.

So far, the season has had only six named storms. The most recent, Tropical Storm Fernand, petered out by the end of August.

Only one of the six storms developed into a hurricane, Hurricane Erin, which grew into a massive Category 5 system with 160 mph winds but remained in the Atlantic without making landfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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