Analysis: Why the Gaza ceasefire puts both Netanyahu and Hamas at political risk

JERUSALEM — Thursday's ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas delivered a jubilant moment in one of the darkest periods of the decades-old conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. But for both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas, the deal could be the poison pill that spells their downfall.

Netanyahu, who with a combined total of 17 years in office is the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history, now must contend with a day-after in Gaza that looks very different from the vision he used to woo allies and keep his opponents at bay.

Hamas, on the other hand, faces a war-ravaged populace that was weary of its rule even before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack; two years later, with more than 67,000 killed, many more wounded and most of the Palestinian enclave in ruins, most Gaza residents are enraged at what they view as the militant group's reckless gamble.

The deal, which President Donald Trump produced after weeks of consultations with — not to mention intense pressure on — Israel and a raft of Arab and Muslim nations, brings about some measure of victory that both sides can claim, namely the swap that will see all remaining Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity exchanged for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Netanyahu and Hamas both trumpeted it as an achievement.

"This is a diplomatic success and a national and moral victory for the State of Israel," Netanyahu wrote Thursday on X, crediting the breakthrough to "steadfast resolve, powerful military action," along with Trump's efforts.

Hamas, meanwhile, said in a statement that the deal was a result of the "steadfastness of the Palestinian people" and its "Resistance," a reference to the Palestinian factions.

Yet those victories could hardly be called complete.

Netanyahu had promised Hamas would not only be defeated but also vanquished, with its arsenal removed. He has also made it his long-running mission to ensure no Palestinian state arises — something he hoped to achieve by conquering Gaza and annexing the West Bank.

Instead, the Israeli military has stopped its offensive with the fate of Hamas' weapons still unclear, and Trump recently said he will "not allow" Israel to annex the West Bank.

Also, Trump's 20-point plan not only put the kibosh on the notion of deporting Gaza residents but also encouraged them to stay. And Netanyahu was forced to accept the prospect of a Palestinian state only a few days after a fire-and-brimstone speech at the United Nations rejecting any such thing.

Already, the coalition he relies on to remain in power is showing fractures, with extremist figures representing settler interests expressing their anger that Netanyahu didn't stay the course and continue fighting.

His opponents, meanwhile, see the conflict's end as their chance to oust him. And his critics among Israeli voters — elections are slated for October 2026 — are not only set to reject him at the ballot box, but also excise anyone associated with his leadership.

At the so-called Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Thursday, Israelis demonstrated some of that rage. When Benny Gantz, an Israeli opposition leader who served in Netanyahu's Cabinet until last year walked through the crowd, hecklers shouted at him "to go home," accusing him of claiming a success he had not earned.

"When the war began, Gantz joined Bibi and saved him instead of bringing down his government," said Einat Mastbaum, a 50-year-old Hebrew teacher, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname. Those actions, she said, kept Netanyahu's government in place and prolonged the hostages' ordeal.

Udi Goren, 44, whose cousin Tal Haimi was killed Oct. 7, 2023, said Israel needed new faces to effect change many Israelis demand after this war.

"Now is the time for us — Israelis and Palestinians — to support a better future, to draft a new narrative for ourselves," he said. "After what we've been through these past two years, we don't want this to happen again."

Yet it would be foolish to discount Netanyahu, a consummate politician in Israel's political landscape who has proved time and again his ability to gauge the national mood and rebound from setbacks, including a prolonged corruption trial he has successfully postponed throughout the war, and an warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Though his claim of totally defeating Hamas falls short, he can still rightly point to having left Israel the indisputable hegemon in the region, whether by decimating the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah or by dealing a crippling blow to Iran. If the deal's implementation continues smoothly, he may also manage to extend normalization agreements to other Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia. Polls, meanwhile, show he's recovered his popularity after taking a hit in the days after the Oct. 7 attack.

And the deal "will boost him," said Dahlia Scheindlin, a public opinion researcher in Israel.

"It will make him look like he's the only one in the country who could work so well with Trump."

"He's much more popular today than he was five days ago," Trump said at the White House.

Hamas' situation appears more complicated. It has said it will play no role in Gaza's future governance — a key Israeli and American demand. But its main rival in the Palestinian Authority, which governed Gaza until Hamas prevailed in elections in 2006, is viewed by many Palestinians as hopelessly corrupt, not to mention downright traitorous because of its security coordination with Israel, which has seen authority forces attack anti-Israel Palestinian resistance groups and activists.

At the same time, the notion of Hamas having any power seems untenable.

"They dragged all of Gaza into the fire. Our homes, our jobs, our futures were all destroyed because of reckless decisions," said Nidal Laqqan, 37, a former merchant from Khan Yunis who has been displaced for the last two years.

He said that many people he knows feel the same way.

"People are angry. This was an uncalculated adventure," he said. "We need a new Palestinian leadership that puts our interests first. No more military steps taken without thinking of the people who will pay the price."

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—Special correspondent Bilal Shbeir in Deir al Balah, Gaza Strip, contributed to this report.