Hurricane center ups chance Caribbean-bound system will develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 19, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Sunday increased the chances a Caribbean-bound system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave, dubbed Invest 98L, was on top of the Caribbean’s Windward Islands with a large area of showers and thunderstorms, but without any close circulation.

“However both radar and satellite images indicate the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to show signs of organization,” forecasters said. “The system is still moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, which could limit development over the next day or so, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as it slows down in the central Caribbean Sea by the middle of this week.”

A tropical depression could form by midweek in the central Caribbean Sea.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through Monday morning,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a near 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% chance to develop in the next seven.

If it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.

Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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