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Takaichi to break Japan's glass ceiling with politics in turmoil

Sakura Murakami, Bloomberg News on

Published in News & Features

TOKYO — Japan’s Sanae Takaichi is poised to become the nation’s first female prime minister, taking on the challenges of quelling discontent over the cost of living, dealing with the Trump administration and reviving the fortunes of a ruling party that has lost its dominance at the ballot box.

Her appointment will mark a watershed moment for Japan’s male-dominated society, an indication that women can break through the glass ceiling to reach the country’s most important positions of responsibility.

At the same time it will also show a Japan that is shifting to the right, as an increasing number of people express dissatisfaction over a sense that living standards aren’t keeping up with global trends, the influx of foreigners into the country and concern about rising security tensions in the region.

Takaichi’s appointment is expected in the early afternoon on Tuesday after a parliamentary vote to decide the premier. Her new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Ishin, leaves her just two seats short of a majority in the lower house.

If independents or lawmakers from the far-right Sanseito party also back her, she may be elected premier in the first round of voting with a majority. Otherwise the vote will go to a second round run-off for the top two candidates, leaving Takaichi only needing to win the most votes to become premier.

Her mettle as leader has already been tested after the shock exit of her party’s long-running coalition partner Komeito earlier this month. While that setback suddenly boosted the prospects of a dramatic opposition challenge for the prime minister’s role, she quickly regained the momentum by securing the alliance with Ishin.

Still, with her new coalition lacking a majority in parliament and questions remaining over some policy differences within the coalition, her government will not be starting on solid ground. Ishin has said it would confine its role to cooperation rather than seek cabinet posts, an indication of caution.

Takaichi will also need to convince her fellow Liberal Democratic Party members that she is the right choice to rebuild the party’s popular support. She’ll likely be mindful of the one-year time frame that typically haunts Japan’s prime ministers.

She’s already moving to unite the party by offering key party roles to her main rivals, including Shinjiro Koizumi as defense minister and Toshimitsu Motegi as foreign minister, according to the local media reports.

First on her policy list will be tackling inflation.

She has said supporting households burdened by rising prices is a top priority, and pledged to compile an economic package as soon as she becomes prime minister.

Her views on the economy are similar to those of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who espoused a reflationist economic platform known as “Abenomics.” She has long advocated for government spending to boost Japan’s economic growth rate and criticized the Bank of Japan for tightening monetary policy.

During her campaign for the LDP leadership she took a more moderate stance, saying she doesn’t dispute the need for fiscal consolidation and would leave the specifics of monetary policy to the BOJ, but the yen has weakened and stocks have gained since her victory due to expectations of pump-priming and pressure on the central bank to refrain from rate hikes.

The slide in the yen would likely exacerbate inflation, a top concern after voters punished the LDP in two national elections over the last year for failing to halt the rising cost of living. That creates a dilemma for Takaichi if she intends to reprise a policy course that’s in line with Abenomics.

 

The LDP has also agreed to consider some policies touted by Ishin in order to bring the party into the coalition. These include considering a two-year cut to the sales tax on food. While that’s a cheaper alternative to cutting the tax across the board, it would come with a political risk. Governments have typically encountered stiff opposition to raising the tax even when a time frame has been laid out in advance.

Takaichi also has a string of diplomatic events lined up next week, including an expected visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Japan.

It is likely they will be on the same footing on some issues, with Takaichi in support of a strong Japanese military and enhanced economic security. They could also find common ground in memories of Abe, who mentored Takaichi and forged a congenial relationship with Trump during his first stint as president.

Still, Takaichi will have to see through the implementation of a trade deal that was signed earlier this year to lower U.S. tariffs. A number of questions remain over the deal, especially on how to get a $550 billion investment fund into the U.S. off the ground.

During her campaign, Takaichi said she doesn’t expect the trade deal to be revised immediately while signaling her openness to renegotiating parts of it if the terms don’t serve Japan’s interest during implementation.

She may also attend the ASEAN summit in Malaysia and APEC in South Korea, both leadership-level events that are set to take place next week. Takaichi’s hawkish diplomatic stance leaves questions on how she would navigate relations with neighboring countries, especially China and South Korea.

Last week Takaichi forewent a visit to Yasukuni, a shrine that some Asian countries see as glorifying Japan’s wartime past. That broke her usual pattern of visiting on the first day of the autumn festival there. During her successful campaign to become leader of the LDP, she hinted she might hold off on visiting the shrine to avoid inflaming ties with other countries.

While handling such issues abroad, Takaichi’s footing at home may easily become shaky. As the leader of a ruling bloc that is still two seats shy of a majority, she may see some turbulence as she tries to push budgets and bills through parliament.

The LDP coalition with Ishin was sealed in about a week, as they put aside some of their deeper and more contentious differences in policy for later discussion.

Ishin is seeking a ban on political donations from businesses. While the LDP has agreed to discuss this and the sales tax over the long-term, there could be strong resistance from within the LDP to both policies.

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(With assistance from Yoshiaki Nohara and Alastair Gale.)

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©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Visit bloomberg.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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