Tropical Storm Melissa forecast to be major hurricane; effect on Florida uncertain

Tropical Storm Melissa continued its slow push north in the Caribbean Thursday and is expected to grow into a major hurricane as it nears Jamaica. But its long-term path including what effects it might have on Florida remain uncertain, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In the NHC’s 5 p.m. Eastern time advisory, Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was located about 185 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 295 miles southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti moving north-northwest at 2 mph.

“A slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days,” forecasters said.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in place for Jamaica and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend,” forecasters said.

The system is forecast to intensity to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts by Saturday. The five-day forecast has it growing to a Category 3 major hurricane early Sunday morning, parked just south of Jamaica with 115 mph sustained winds and 140 mph gusts and intensifying further to a strong Category 4 storm as its center moves to the west across the length of the Caribbean island with 145 mph sustained winds and 175 mph gusts.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has its eye on the system.

“Some uncertainty continues late weekend and into next week on the track of Tropical Storm Melissa and the amount of moisture present over the Florida peninsula,” NWS forecasters said. “Fortunately, model consensus keeps Melissa well to the south of the Florida peninsula through at least the next 5 days. However, any storm in the Caribbean bears watching for the local area and residents and visitors should continue to monitor official National Hurricane Center updates.”

Hurricane conditions could begin affecting Haiti, with tropical-storm conditions in Jamaica on Friday.

The slow-moving storm could bring dangerous rainfall to southern Haiti, southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with 8-14 inches expected through Sunday and potentially more depending on the storm’s path. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Another 2-4 inches are forecast across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and western Jamaica.

Melissa, which formed on Tuesday, became the 13th tropical cyclone of the season.

Four so far have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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