Record travel expected during Thanksgiving week, and most are going to drive

Tim Harlow, The Minnesota Star Tribune on Nov 23, 2025

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More Americans than ever are expected to travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period, and the lion’s share of the nearly 82 million people making a getaway will be going by car.

AAA predicts that 73 million people will drive to their destination, and that number could rise if those who originally opted to fly switch to driving after the recent spate of flight delays and cancellations that resulted from FAA mandates enacted during the government shutdown.

All restrictions imposed at the 40 largest U.S. airports were lifted last week, allowing a full schedule of flights to resume just as the busy holiday travel season arrived.

U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said he expects flight problems to be resolved before Thanksgiving travel ramps up.

About 6 million people are predicted to fly, with Sunday expected to be the busiest day at the nation’s airports, AAA said.

In AAA’s West North Central Region, which includes Minnesota, nearly 6.5 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday and Dec. 1, marking a 1.8% increase over last year, said Brynna Knapp, a spokeswoman with AAA Minnesota.

Of those, 5.8 million will drive while 306,000 will fly, according to AAA Minnesota.

“Minnesotans are embracing the Thanksgiving spirit with record-breaking travel plans this year,” said Debbie Haas, AAA’s vice president for travel. “Even with concerns about flight cancellations, travelers are showing flexibility and resilience and relying most on driving. We encourage air travelers to build flexibility into their plans.”

Roads will be packed all week, but the highest levels of congestion are expected between noon and 9 p.m. Tuesday and between 11 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Wednesday and Sunday, according to Inrix, a travel analytics company.

The best day to drive is Thanksgiving Day or before 11 a.m. on the two days before and three days after the holiday, Inrix said.

On Sunday, drivers returning to the Twin Cities from Wisconsin on westbound I-94 can expect the trip from Eau Claire to take nearly 2 hours due to heavy traffic, the worst commute of the weekend, Inrix predicted.

Slow and safe is better than not arriving at all. Sunday after Thanksgiving is a dangerous day to be on the roads, with the crash rate rising 65% compared with the Sunday before the holiday, according to 2024 data analyzed by Samsara, a technology company that tracks commercial fleet safety.

Speeding rises 68% on Thanksgiving compared to normal Thursdays and 27% on the day before and 32% on the day after. Distracted driving jumps 10.8% on Thanksgiving Day, according to Cambridge Mobile Telematics.

Drunken driving and speeding are top travel hazards, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said.

Fuel costs will be at reasonable levels with a national average of $3.02 on Thanksgiving Day, according to the gas price tracking website and app GasBuddy. That would match the price of last year.

“Gas prices are cooperating,” said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy. He warned that prices can jump 10 to 25 cents when drivers cross a state line. “It pays to compare prices before filling up.”

AAA predicts prices will be at or below the national average in Minnesota.

Amtrak also is predicting a surge in travelers over the weekend. That comes after the railroad served more than 34.5 million customers during fiscal year 2025 and set an all-time mark for ridership and revenue for the second straight year.

Trips to and from St. Paul and Chicago on the popular Borealis line were sold out on Wednesdayand Sunday, but tickets remained for Thursday through Saturday travel, according to Amtrak’s website.

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