CHICAGO — Continued enrollment declines at Chicago Public Schools could escalate into a “crisis” that would significantly affect the city’s public education system in the years ahead, according to a new report from Kids First Chicago.

CPS’ current enrollment is more than 316,000 students — a near 28% decrease of more than 122,000 students since 2002-2003.

This change reflects a broader district-wide pattern driven by several factors, including a drop in birth rates over the past decade and a smaller population of school-aged children living in Chicago, according to data compiled by the local education nonprofit.

The district’s diminished student roster isn’t the crux of the problem, according to Hal Woods, chief policy officer at Kids First Chicago. “What makes this a crisis is the lack of a serious plan for how to adapt to it. That leaves students in smaller schools with fewer opportunities and no clear path forward,” he said.

His concerns underscore a crucial shift in the district over the past few years.

A decade ago, 3 out of 4 students attending school in Chicago were enrolled in CPS.

However, between 2014 and 2023, the number of school-aged children living in the city plunged by roughly 15% — or about 80,000 children — the report highlighted. Subsequently, the number of school-aged children attending CPS slid nearly 5% — or 18,000 fewer students — by 2023, the most recent data available.

And there’s more.

In 2005, the city recorded more than 45,000 live births. But by 2023, the number of live births in Chicago had dropped nearly 41% to about 26,800, the report said. Fewer births mean fewer students are entering and matriculating through CPS, affecting early grade levels.

As for how this affects early education, fewer students entering kindergarten means smaller cohorts will reshape the district from the bottom up, experts say.

The effect is already evident in the district’s earliest grades. CPS enrolled 20,000 kindergarteners this school year — 27% fewer than a decade ago. Grades K-5 used to account for half of all CPS students in 2015, now down to 42% in the current year.

The arrival of nearly 9,000 migrant students in recent years helped to offset short-term enrollment decreases, but has since leveled off, the report said.

Black and Latino enrollment also down

Enrollment among Latino and Black students has declined across the district this school year, according to the report.

In 2015-16, Latino and Black students accounted for 85% of CPS enrollment. But Latino student enrollment, which previously exceeded 153,000, has decreased by nearly 7,000, while Black student enrollment has dropped by about 2,900.

Even with enrollment declines, the two groups still account for the majority of the district’s enrollment at 81% for this school year.

Meanwhile, other student populations, such as white, Asian and multiracial students, have seen modest increases.

According to the report, 1 in 4 CPS students is an “English Learner,” whose first language is not English. But after two years of growth, EL enrollment has waned.

Between 2023 and 2025, enrollment reached a 10-year high of more than 88,000 students but has since decreased by 2.9% to just over 86,000 students.

More than 227,000 students are also considered economically disadvantaged — about 7 in 10 students.

West and South Side schools see drop in enrollment

Enrollment trends in recent years have been uneven across the district. Schools in West and South Side neighborhoods have been disproportionately affected by plummeting enrollment. Yet, enrollment in North and Central Side neighborhoods has remained comparatively stable.

The steepest decline occurred on the city’s Southwest Side in the McKinley Park network of 29 elementary schools, according to Kids First Chicago. Since the 2015-16 school year, the network has lost nearly 7,000 students.

CPS is divided into 18 geographically distinct “networks,” each receiving customized administrative support from district leadership. Thirteen of the networks are composed of elementary (K-8) schools. The remaining networks are composed of traditional and alternative learning high schools.

Other networks also faced major declines, including the Belmont Cragin-Austin network of elementary schools on the city’s West Side, which lost 6,000 students during the same period.

In some cases, these elementary school networks have lost over one-third of their student population, according to the report.

By contrast, networks on the North Side, such as Ravenswood, Near North-Loop-Chinatown and Logan Square-Lincoln Park each lost only a few thousand over the same period.

A network can lose students for various reasons, including enrollment in private schools or homeschooling.

“The steepest losses are concentrated on the South and West sides, where many neighborhoods have experienced sustained population decline for years, while much of the North Side has seen far smaller drops or relative stability,” Woods said. “When fewer children live in a community, schools in that community feel it first.”

Declining enrollment also makes schools more expensive to operate because fixed costs remain even as student enrollment falls, the report said.

While smaller schools can offer a close-knit community, the report highlighted they may struggle to provide a full range of programs, such as advanced placement courses, foreign languages and sports.

“As schools get smaller and smaller, it can become more difficult to provide the full level of culture and opportunity you would want to,” Nelson Gerew, an education expert at The Chicago Public Education Fund, told the Tribune.

In high-poverty districts like CPS, schools may be forced to cut arts programs, electives, extracurriculars or reduce counseling, library and mental health staff.

Kids First Chicago concluded its report by urging stakeholders to get involved to avoid negative outcomes, such as reduced opportunities for students.

“Ultimately, these trends should compel everyone who cares about Chicago’s students — from educators and policymakers to families and funders — to better understand the demographic focus driving smaller schools and what those shifts mean for the students learning inside them,” the organization wrote.

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