Wintry blast to unleash snow, test grids from Midwest to NYC

Lauren Rosenthal and Naureen S. Malik, Bloomberg News on Jan 17, 2025

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An extended run of bone-chilling cold is poised to send demand for power and natural gas surging across much of the United States this weekend, with snow expected in the Northeast by Sunday and a chance of snow or sleet along the Gulf Coast early next week.

Frigid weather has already begun to set in across the Central U.S. By Monday, daily high temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees Fahrenheit below average across a large swath of the country, according to the U.S. Weather Prediction Center.

Houston will have overnight readings below freezing, while Washington, D.C., will see single digits. President-elect Donald Trump said he plans to hold his inauguration indoors Monday. As much as 7 inches of snow may fall in Manhattan’s Central Park Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours.

“At least for northeastern U.S., these will be the coldest readings since just before Christmas in 2022,” said David Roth, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.

That winter, a short-lived Arctic front sent temperatures dipping into the single digits Fahrenheit, Roth added, but the system currently unfurling across the U.S. is expected to last as long as four days.

The largest U.S. electric grid, PJM Interconnection, said in a statement that demand on Tuesday and Wednesday “is expected to approach PJM’s all-time winter peak,” which occurred on Feb. 20, 2015. PJM, which serves more than 65 million people from Washington, D.C., To Chicago, declared a “conservative operations” event beginning Monday due to extreme cold, signaling that generators should secure gas supplies to prevent disruptions as demand peaks.

In the Northeast, surging power demand pushed natural gas fuel trades Friday to as much as $100 per MMBtu — the highest-priced gas in the country — for the region close to New York, according to traders watching the cash market. Due to pipeline constraints, winter natural gas prices in the region often spike during periods of deep cold.

The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s grid, announced that it expects demand to top out Tuesday at 24.4 gigawatts, exceeding its high forecast for this winter. In a statement Friday, NYISO’s vice president of operations, Aaron Markham, said the system should still have “an adequate supply of electricity” to get through the cold snap.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which serves more than 45 million people from the Great Lakes and Canada down to the Gulf Coast, has also issued conservative operations notices starting Monday, asking operators of transmission lines and power plants to cancel any maintenance that they can.

Meanwhile, the Texas grid manager — the Electric Reliability Council of Texas — has warned customers that severe weather could lead to higher demand and “the potential for lower reserves” Monday through Thursday. ERCOT said it did not anticipate running into supply shortages. The power demand forecast has dipped somewhat, with peak demand expected to hit 75.4 gigawatts on Monday morning.

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(With assistance from Ruth Liao.)