Florida's Gulf Coast readies for hurricane season after 4 storms in 2 years

ORLANDO, Fla. – Leslie and Frank Hall had just rebuilt their home on the Gulf Coast following Hurricane Idalia in 2023 when they watched in horror as Hurricane Helene — a monster of a storm — barreled into their coastal community last September and wiped out their house and business.

It was a staggering one-two punch for the couple and thousands of other Taylor County residents, who had just gotten back on their feet from Idalia.

Making matters worse, Helene — which destroyed hundreds of homes and caused more than $50 million of damage in Taylor County — came nearly two months after Hurricane Debbie plowed into Florida’s Big Bend last August causing extensive flooding and days-long power outages. Idalia also hit Taylor County in August 2023, causing nearly $100 million in damage.

Now, Leslie Hall is not looking forward to this year’s hurricane season, which starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

“I’m very nervous,” she said. “If a hurricane hits us again, there will be no coming back from that. We have used every bit of money that we had trying to rebuild [from Idalia and Helene]. … Mother Nature cannot be that cruel.”

The early storm forecasts all show a good chance of a hurricane hitting the United States this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of an “above average” hurricane season this year with between 13 and 19 storms forming in the Atlantic and Caribbean. Of those storms, six to 10 will be hurricanes, including three to five as major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher and has sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour.

Weather experts at Colorado State University in their April forecast also showed an above-average storm season, with 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes, including four reaching major strength. Forecasters there give a 51% chance that a major hurricane will strike the country’s mainland.

Like the Halls, many Gulf Coast residents are anxious that after four hurricanes in two years — Idalia, Debby, Helene and Milton — another storm could deal a devastating blow to their small coastal communities, which have long relied on economies of fishing, scalloping, canoeing and visitors.

Hurricanes and tropical storms thrive in warm waters. And waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are warmer than normal for this time of year.

But the good news is they are cooler than a year ago. And that means we could be in for a less intense hurricane season than 2024, according to meteorologists.

“Yes, it is good news that they are not as warm as last year,” said Levi Silvers, a research scientist for the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University. “But last year was literally off the charts. And I’m surprised that last year was not as bad or as brutal as we expected.”

Still, Silvers cautioned the April forecast calls for an “above average” hurricane season and Florida residents should be well prepared.

“We’re expecting a season of somewhere in between last year (with 18 named storms) and normal (of 14.5 named storms),” he said.

The chance of a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast between Cedar Key and Brownsville, Texas, is 33%, slightly higher than the 27% average, according to the CSU report.

In coastal Central Florida: There is a 46% probability of a named storm striking Volusia County, but just a 3% chance it would be a major hurricane. In Brevard County, there is a 51% probability of a storm impact and a 7% chance it would be a major hurricane.

But after two years of devastation, Taylor County faces one of the lowest probabilities of a storm impact among Florida’s coastal counties — with a 43% chance of a named storm striking, and just a 1% of it being a major hurricane.

Does that mean that Florida’s Big Bend region is likely in the clear this year from a hurricane striking?

“The chances of that happening are pretty low, but they are not zero,” Silvers said about a storm hitting the Big Bend. “But if I was playing poker, I would not bet against it. Residents of the Caribbean and Gulf always need to be aware and be prepared. Even getting one major storm is a life-changing event.”

CSU meteorologists will release additional forecasts through the hurricane season. Those later forecasts, Silvers said, tend to be more accurate regarding the number of storms and intensities because of changing weather patterns, wind shear and dust in the atmosphere.

In Sarasota County, Milton — a powerful Category 3 hurricane — struck Siesta Key last October, killing 42 people in Florida and causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. Much of the damage was from deadly tornadoes along Milton’s path across the state.

“The central and northern part of our island really took the brunt,” said Howard Tipton, town manager of Longboat Key.

Surprisingly, it was Helene, not Milton, that caused much of the damage on Longboat Key, he said. That’s because of Helene’s storm surge of up to 8 feet that inundated older properties built decades ago at ground level. More than 90 homes were destroyed on Longboat Key.

Tipton recalled sitting in Town Hall last September as Helene stormed across the Gulf dozens of miles away.

“When I saw a wall of saltwater go down the road, I thought: ‘This is not good,’” he said. “I was unable to leave Town Hall. My vehicle was totaled. … A storm doesn’t have to be close to have a significant impact. Helene was 125 miles from our coast. But it was the worst storm we had in a hundred years.”

In Taylor County, officials have launched promotional and advertising campaigns to lure visitors, especially for the scalloping season which runs June 15 through September 1. The county recently held fishing tournaments that have led to hotel rooms being booked in Perry.

“We’re bouncing back,” said Dawn Perez, executive director of the county’s Tourism Development Council. “There is some fear. But we’re keeping our spirits up. We want everyone to know, we’re open for business.”

Taylor County Commissioner Michael Newman agreed.

“We’ve had some awful experiences,” he said. “But we’ve seen some good things, such as our churches and nonprofits helping with our recovery. … We don’t look past the sense that many of our residents are still struggling with their recovery. But we’re thankful to be in this place.”

Since Helene, the Halls have been renting a home while continuing to pay the mortgage on their destroyed house. They recently restarted their business Spring Warrior Fish Camp and Charter in Perry and have rooms ready to book for the scalloping season, a heavy tourist draw in Taylor County.

But rebuilding their home will be a challenge as a new structure will have to be built at least 18 feet higher, a cost they can’t afford and they are still waiting for money from FEMA.

But Leslie Hall is optimistic.

“We are ready and open for business,” she said.

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