Illegal Immigration Is Down Under Trump -- Can It Last?

Debra Saunders on Feb 20, 2025

WASHINGTON -- The number of border apprehensions was down in January -- 29,116 illegal aliens were apprehended along the border, the lowest number since May 2020.

In January 2022, the number of southwest border encounters exceeded 150,000.

The White House calls it "the Trump effect."

With the whole world listening, President Donald Trump's tough-on-immigration-crime rhetoric had a dramatic effect even before he took the oath of office on Jan. 20.

People who two years ago might have seen crossing the border illegally as a reasonable risk today are faced with a different reality.

Mark Krikorian, executive director of the pro-enforcement Center for Immigration Studies, noted that past Republican presidential candidates, hand-wringers like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain, said they'd enforce immigration law. But they only looked tough compared to Democrats like former President Joe Biden.

It was doubtful these ghosts of GOP past would exert the muscle needed to arrest and deport serious offenders when they spent so much time jawboning about the need for what they called "comprehensive immigration reform." That term served as an excuse for the enforcement-lite status quo that often failed to deport repeat offenders.

Consider Trump's choice to serve as his border czar: Tom Homan, a Trump administration veteran and serious law-enforcement professional who doesn't believe in apologizing for doing his job.

Homan talks about enforcement. And deporting illegal immigrants.

Homan doesn't noodle about the "root causes" of illegal immigration, as former Vice President Kamala Harris used to do after Biden put her in charge of the border.

Methinks a major root cause is the belief that unauthorized migrants won't face serious punishment for flouting federal law.

Or, as Homan told ABC News last month, "If we don't show there's consequences, you're never going to fix the border problem." Now that's comprehensive.

And another thing: While Washington likes to talk about deporting unauthorized migrants with serious criminal records, Homan points out that it is his job to remove illegal migrants because they broke immigration law.

"He genuinely does agree with strict immigration enforcement," Krikorian said of Homan.

Good news. Blue states and "sanctuary cities" that flaunted their willingness to shield undocumented immigrants from federal law enforcement actually might enjoy a windfall.

California is expected to spend some $9.5 billion on health care for illegal immigrants during the current fiscal year. Imagine the benefits if the number of unauthorized newcomers falls, instead of rises, and fewer non-Americans cross the southwest border illegally. Imagine the benefits if others choose to return to their country of origin rather than endure the cold hospitality of incarceration. Fewer workers should mean higher wages.

Krikorian's fear is that after a while, Beltway pols and voters will see the border as "all fixed." And you know what that means: an excuse to stop enforcing a body of law that blue state and local officials spent years ignoring anyway. His remedy: Mandate that employers use E-Verify.

Then watch the number of illegal immigrants climb appreciably, which would give D.C.'s ruling class license to throw up their hands because they see the situation as unsolvable.

It doesn't have to be that way. Americans went for Trump largely because, unlike Biden, Trump was strong on the border. Trump knows that immigration helped him win back the White House. May he never forget it.

Contact Review-Journal Washington columnist Debra J. Saunders at dsaunders@reviewjournal.com. Follow @debrajsaunders on X.

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