President Donald Trump’s reelection was fueled partly by an unmistakable boost of support from Black men, especially young ones, demonstrating yet another troublesome crack in the Democratic Party’s electoral foundation.

Recent data from Catalist, a progressive organization that analyzes precinct-level voting results, highlights how crucial it is for Democrats to pay close attention and adjust — so that the crack doesn’t turn into a fracture.

Kamala Harris received 79% of the vote from Black men in 2024 while doing worse — 75% — among those ages 18-29 in the cohort. Understandably, the Democratic nominee garnering three-quarters of the vote, and better, with any particular demographic might not sound like anything to fret about. But what matters is how the electoral performance of Black men compares to 2020 and prior presidential contests.

Harris’s 79% was seven percentage points less than Joe Biden’s vote share with Black men four years earlier. Her 75% among younger voters in that demographic trailed Biden’s total by even more — 10 points. The shift of Black men broadly, and young ones specifically, toward Trump last November appears even more stark when viewed side by side with 2016. In that contest, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton garnered 90% of the vote from both cohorts.

These numbers are nowhere near as alarming for the Democrats as the jump in Hispanic support for Trump, especially among the working class, which I detailed for Bloomberg Opinion recently. And to some degree, Republicans are slowly recovering support from Black voters they tended to receive prior to Barack Obama, who led the Democratic ticket in 2008 and 2012. (Obama earned 95% and 94% from Black men and the demographic’s young voters, respectively, in 2012.)

But Andra Gillespie, associate professor of political science at Emory University in Atlanta, told me, essentially, that it would be a mistake to interpret the movement of Black men to Trump as statistical noise. She said a combination of factors is likely responsible: economic anxiety and Trump’s pitch to reduce inflation; his mobilization of low-propensity voters; poor strategies to court Black male voters by the Harris campaign; and a general feeling of being taken for granted by the Democratic Party.

“It is certainly true that Obama overperformed amongst Black voters even when we take their high Democratic voting behavior into account,” said Gillespie, who studies political mobilization and race. “It is still also important to acknowledge the fact that we have seen — that in 2024, we did see more Black men voting Republican.”

Black women are the most loyal Democratic constituency. In 2024, they delivered 90% of their vote to Harris, equaling their support for Biden four years prior. Similarly, 88% of Black women ages 18-29 backed Harris, a 1-point drop-off from their support for Biden. And despite their slight shift rightward, Black men were the third most loyal Democratic bloc after LGBTQ voters. But when a presidential race is decided by less than 2 points nationally and in critical battleground states, seemingly small movements can matter a great deal.

And in the swing states, the Democratic Party’s share of the Black male vote and its support among the group’s younger voters, decreased by more than a small amount compared to 2020, sliding 5 points to 84% and 6 points to 81%, respectively.

To understand what drove at least some of the defections, the focus groups conducted in May by the Working Class Project, a post-election initiative from the Democratic super PAC, American Bridge 21st Century, are useful. The group talked to blue-collar Black voters in four battleground states — Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania — plus Virginia, which was atypically competitive last year. What did the Democratic strategists behind the initiative discover?

“A common thread across these focus groups was a feeling of disillusionment with the Democratic Party,” spokesman Ian Sams wrote in a memorandum posted on Substack. Among working-class Black men specifically, the Democratic Party’s problem is more acute.

Comments from the focus groups were brutal.

“It’s the pandering they do to us,” said an unnamed Black man in Virginia. “When Biden was running, it’s ‘you ain’t Black’ if you don’t vote for me. It’s Hillary (Clinton) and the hot sauce. We know, at the end of the day, you’re not really for us.” Added an unnamed participant in North Carolina: “At my age, I don’t care if I’m not included. I wanna make my money. I wanna be able to support my family.”

The first time Trump captured the White House in 2016, viewing the outcome as a political fluke was defensible. He lost the popular vote, barely won in key battleground states, defeated a historically bad Democratic nominee in Clinton, the first woman to lead a major party’s presidential ticket, and made basically zero gains with coveted voting blocs other than the White working class.

But Trump’s third campaign and second victory were powered by a broad, demographically and ethnically varied coalition. The 45th and now 47th president made measurable inroads with Hispanic voters, younger voters and, yes, Black men. The result was a sweep of the most heavily fought-over swing states plus the first Republican national popular vote victory in two decades. Come 2028, Trump’s achievement may prove fleeting, but Democrats would be foolish to make blind assumptions.

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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

David M. Drucker is columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of "In Trump's Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP."

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