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Commentary: Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza is on life support

Daniel DePetris, Chicago Tribune on

Published in Op Eds

On Nov. 17, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution that officially endorsed the U.S. peace plan for Gaza. It was a big moment for President Donald Trump’s administration, which spent months negotiating the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and weeks lobbying other countries to support the plan’s key tenets: the establishment of a so-called International Stabilization Force designed to provide stability to the battered enclave; the formation of a transitional administration under a Trump-led Board of Peace; the disarmament of Hamas and a massive reconstruction initiative.

“We will seize the opportunity today to end decades of bloodshed and make lasting peace a reality,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Michael Waltz said, beaming after the vote.

The reality on the ground is far less rosy. Nearly eight weeks after it was agreed to, Trump’s peace plan remains in a moribund state. The best that can be said is that the approximately 2 million Palestinians in Gaza are no longer under bombardment every day and Israeli troops are no longer getting ambushed in the dense confines of Gaza’s major cities. But the lack of progress on other aspects of the plan, including setting up an international policing force meant to pave the way for a full Israeli troop withdrawal from the territory, suggests that Trump’s bombastic claims of peace are misplaced.

Violence, of course, is down from its peak. Earlier in the year, hundreds of people were dying every day. This is no longer the case. The truce and the partial Israeli military pullback to the new locations farther east have minimized the prospects of clashes. The killing, though, hasn’t stopped. Israel and Hamas continue to blame each other for ceasefire violations. During one instance in late October, the death of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants prompted Israel to retaliate with a wave of airstrikes that killed 104 people.

Occasional firefights continue to this day; according to Gaza health officials, at least 352 Palestinians have been killed since Trump’s ceasefire plan went into effect. Given that an unknown number of Hamas militants are stuck underground on the Israeli side of the yellow line dividing Israeli and Hamas-controlled territory, the number is bound to go up in the days and weeks ahead.

The hostage release portion of the deal is a bit stuck as well. The 20-point Trump plan mandated the exchange of all Israeli hostages, alive and dead, within 72 hours of the deal’s signing, in return for 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 Palestinians detained during the war. Hamas freed all the living Israeli hostages and most of the deceased, but two of the dead have yet to be recovered. Hamas claims that the severe destruction in Gaza is hampering recovery work.

Meanwhile, Israel is increasingly frustrated with what it perceives to be Hamas stonewalling and is threatening to block Phase 2 of Trump’s plan until those two bodies are returned. The longer this dispute goes on, the less likely Phase 2 will begin and the more likely Trump will see his diplomatic achievement in Gaza go sideways.

The biggest impediment to success remains the complete lack of an actual plan to get to the long-term peace the Trump administration rightly wants to see. There are plenty of generalities but very few details about how to operationalize the meatiest of Trump’s 20 points. Ideally, the United States would have at least a few willing participants to staff the International Stabilization Force, which will be tasked with disarming Hamas, training an independent Palestinian police force and ensuring Gaza is secure enough that Israeli forces can continue on with a withdrawal.

Yet at this time, no country is lining up to staff the force. The Gulf Arab states don’t want to be responsible for occupying an area that Israel demolished, nor do they want to be put in the position of fighting Hamas in the (likely) event it refuses to hand over its weapons.

 

Azerbaijan has pulled out after expressing initial interest. Jordan and Egypt, which traditionally hold the most influence on the Palestinian question, have restricted their role to training Palestinian police. And Turkey, the one country that was willing to pitch in troops, is unlikely to be involved after Israel issued a veto. In the meantime, Hamas continues to consolidate its authority in the half of Gaza it currently controls.

What about the interim Palestinian administration that’s supposed to take over from Hamas? This isn’t looking particularly promising, either. Composition of the body is a mystery. Although Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have nominated individuals, the fact that Hamas is contributing to the process at all means that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to throw up roadblocks.

Indeed, the Trump-led Board of Peace that is tasked with supervising the Palestinian interim administration doesn’t have any members yet. In other words, at present, a nonexistent Board of Peace is overseeing a nonexistent Palestinian administration that may or may not be set up, depending on whether Israel approves.

Finally, as far as reconstruction in Gaza is concerned, there isn’t much to report. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and the European Union, all of which will be expected to finance much of the rebuilding, aren’t going to throw billions of dollars into the pot as long as there is a risk of the truce collapsing. This scenario isn’t far-fetched: If Hamas continues to refuse disarmament, it’s probably only a matter of time before Israel decides that the ceasefire has outlived its purpose.

Trump deserves credit for getting where we are today. But what’s the value of a deal if it’s not implemented?

____

Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune.

___


©2025 Chicago Tribune. Visit at chicagotribune.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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