WASHINGTON — Millions of Californians who rely on Medicaid face catastrophic cuts, insist the Democrats.

People will pay lower taxes thanks to us, boast the Republicans.

Who’s right? It’s not that simple. And no one may know for sure until much later this year.

The debate over taxes and spending suddenly intensified Wednesday, the day after the House passed a Republican-authored bill by a 217-215 margin. It was a straight party line vote, with only Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who voted no, dissenting from his party.

Since the vote, the political world has erupted. Republicans are accusing vulnerable California Democrats of backing higher taxes by voting no. Democrats warned that the state’s Republicans were heartlessly cutting social programs that aid lower income people.

The reality is this: The measure the House passed only begins a lengthy process that will involve lots and lots of votes by committees and ultimately the full Congress. That process is expected to last well into the fall.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., called the bill “the kickoff in what will be a four-quarter game.”

Here’s a look at the political war:

GOP: Gray wants to ‘raise taxes on millions’

“Adam Gray just voted to raise taxes on millions of American families and small businesses and to spend more taxpayer dollars on radical government boondoggles,” said Ben Petersen, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Gray, a Democrat, is a freshman congressman from the Central Valley who won his seat in November by fewer than 200 votes.

The House bill includes $4.5 trillion that can be used to continue the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Most expire at the end of the year, and if that happens, tax rates would revert to pre-2017 levels that would raise many taxes.

The Tax Foundation, a Washington research group, estimates that “most aspects of the individual income tax would undergo substantial changes, resulting in more than 62 percent of tax filers experiencing tax increases in 2026.”

Kim: Bill ‘does not make cuts’

“This resolution provides a framework for fiscal spending and does not make cuts to any specific programs — it simply allows us to move the ball forward in creating a budget that uses taxpayer dollars as effectively as possible to serve the American people,” said Rep. Young Kim, R-Anaheim.

She’s correct about how the bill is a framework that does not make specific cuts.

The next step is for the Senate and House to come up with one version of the budget. It then has to be approved by both chambers. The Senate passed a budget last week, but it generally deals only with border security and defense.

Once the two chambers agree on a plan, the Senate and House need to approve it. If that happens, committees will then decide on any policy and spending changes, changes that will need approval by each chamber. That’s when the big debate over cuts will get more intense and unpredictable.

Bera: ‘Devastating cuts to Medicaid’

“I stand with @HouseDemocrats against the Republican budget that would make devastating cuts to Medicaid, reduce food assistance and raise health care costs for many hardworking #SacramentoCounty families,” said Rep. Ami Bera, D-Sacramento.

He’s correct in that the potential is there for major reductions and changes in those programs. The House bill calls for $880 billion in spending reductions under the jurisdiction of the Republican-dominated House Energy & Commerce Committee. Most of those cuts are expected to come from the Medicaid program, which serves about 15 million Californians.

The bill also calls for $230 billion in agriculture cuts. CalFresh is California’s version of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and it could be vulnerable. About 5.3 million Californians used the program last year, according to the state Legislative Analyst’s Office.

California Republicans insist they’re aware of the consequences. “I want to make it clear that I do not support cuts to Social Security, Medicare and the safety net programs our vulnerable Americans rely on. We owe it to taxpayers to find savings by rooting out waste, fraud and abuse in all of our programs, including our health care programs,” said Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona.

Calvert is a senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, which will ultimately write spending legislation later this year.

Valadao: ‘Keep the legislative process moving’

“I voted to advance the budget resolution — an important procedural step to keep the legislative process moving…. I’ve made clear to House leadership that I will only support a final bill that protects essential resources like Medicaid or SNAP for Central Valley families,” said Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford.

Valadao is regarded as one of the nation’s more vulnerable Republicans. He was one of eight GOP House members to send Johnson a letter last week explaining big Medicaid cuts would have “serious consequences” in areas where the program is widely used..

Valadao is also an appropriations committee member, so he will have a large say in what ultimately happens. He said Thursday he would “keep fighting to protect access to healthcare and food security to ensure my constituents aren’t left behind.”

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