While the 2026 midterms are more than a year and a half away, three special elections happening Tuesday night should give voters across the country a sense of which way the political breeze is blowing.

In Florida, two special elections will fill congressional seats vacated by Republicans Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz, who both stepped down to join President Donald Trump’s administration. Waltz is serving as national security adviser, while Gaetz is currently a TV host on right-wing One America News Network after his failed bid to become U.S. attorney general.

While the two districts overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2024, there have been some strong signs the Republican candidates are facing surprisingly stiff competition from their Democratic opponents. Republicans currently have a slim majority in Congress, and their legislative agenda could become much more difficult if Democrats successfully flip one or both seats.

The third noteworthy special election is happening in Wisconsin, where a state Supreme Court seat is up for grabs, which could have implications for who controls Congress ahead of the 2026 midterms.

If Democrats overperform, it would be the latest sign Trump has already alienated some of his supporters a little more than two months into his second term. Last week, Democrats narrowed the GOP majority in the Pennsylvania state Senate by flipping a Lancaster County seat in a district Trump won by 15 points.

“In a district carried comfortably by President Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward — an embrace of competence, common sense, and a desire to bring people together," Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a statement.

Here’s what to know about the three special elections, in the order of when polls close, and how they could shape politics in Washington:

FLORIDA

Race: 6th Congressional District (which includes Daytona Beach and Palm Coast along the Atlantic Ocean)

Candidates: Randy Fine (R), Josh Weil (D)

When do the polls close: 7 p.m. Eastern

Why is there a special election?

A special election is being held to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, Trump’s embattled national security adviser who is under fire for apparently inviting a journalist into a Signal group chat where sensitive attack plans were discussed.

The seat should be in the bag for Republicans, with Trump winning 65% of the vote in 2024. But state Rep. Randy Fine, who is backed by Trump, is currently in what appears to be a surprisingly tight race with Democratic challenger Josh Weil, a public schoolteacher.

In a poll released last week conducted by St. Pete Polls, Fine’s lead over Weil was so narrow it fell into the survey’s margin of error, giving Democrats hope they may flip the deep-red district (rated R+14 by Cook Political Report) and narrow the Republicans’ control over Congress.

Last week, Trump withdrew the nomination of U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., to become his U.N. ambassador, citing the narrow margin Republicans are holding onto in the House.

“We have a slim margin,” Trump told reporters at the White House last week. “We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment.”

FLORIDA

Race: 1st Congressional District (which includes Pensacola and the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle)

Candidates: Jimmy Patronis (R), Gay Valimont (D)

When do the polls close: 8 p.m. Eastern

Why is there a special election?

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz gave up his seat when he was nominated by Trump to become the U.S. attorney general. Gaetz withdrew under heavy bipartisan pressure about a week later, but his former seat still needs to be filled.

There should be little drama who will win. Trump won the district with 68.1% of the vote in 2024, and the Cook Political Report gives it a uncompetitive R+19 rating. So the race should be in the bag for Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and a former state representative whom Trump endorsed.

However, although there hasn’t been much public polling on the race, there have been reports of strong Democratic turnout and a surge in late registrations. Valimont, a public middle school teacher, has also managed to out fundraise Patronis in the race by a large margin — $6.5 million vs. $2.1 million, according to Florida Politics, a news company that covers statewide politics.

Gaetz defeated Valimont handily in November, 66% to 34%. If Valimont significantly improves on those numbers, it could be a sign of growing unease at Trump and his policies in a district saturated with his supporters.

WISCONSIN

Race: State Supreme Court

Candidates: Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel

When do the polls close: 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. local)

Why is there a special election?

A state Supreme Court race doesn’t normally crack through on the national scale, but the replacement for outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley could have far-reaching consequences, including potentially impacting which party controls Congress in 2026.

There are no party affiliations in the race, but Crawford is backed by Democrats and has been endorsed by former President Barack Obama, while Schimel has the support of Republicans and Elon Musk, so make of that what you will.

Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court has had a liberal majority since 2023, and a victory by Crawford would maintain that advantage at a time Democrats want to challenge the state’s electoral map, which currently favors Republicans by a 6-2 margin. Republicans currently have a slim five-seat advantage in Congress, and that will likely tighten more in 2026, if history is any guide.

“What’s happening on Tuesday is a vote for which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives,” Musk said at a rally in Green Bay Sunday night, according to The New York Times, which is why he’s endorsed Schimel and thrown $20 million into the race. And just like in Pennsylvania, Musk cut a few $1 million checks to random voters in what was described as a random giveaway, though one recipient happened to be the chairman of the Wisconsin College Republicans.

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2025 election calendar

—May 20: Pennsylvania primaries

—June 10: New Jersey gubernatorial primaries

—June 17: Virginia gubernatorial primaries

—June 24: New York City primary

—Sept. 23: Arizona 7th Congressional District special election

—Nov. 4: New Jersey governor, Virginia governor, New York City mayor, Boston mayor, Pittsburgh mayor, Philadelphia DA

—TBD: Texas 18th Congressional District special election

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