In April, the fight over control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court was seen as so critical nationally that Elon Musk, a top ally of President Donald Trump earlier this year, ran onto a rally stage in Green Bay donning a cheesehead hat as Lynyrd Skynyrd's "Free Bird" pumped up the crowd, before he pushed to flip the court's liberal majority.

The appearance — and $20 million in donations — failed to convince voters.

Now, it's Pennsylvania's Supreme Court and the 5-2 Democratic majority in an unprecedented firestorm of state and national politics.

In little more than a week on Nov. 4, Democratic Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht face "yes" or "no" votes on their retention for another 10-year term. Retention elections are typically uneventful, as only one justice has been tossed from the bench in more than 50 years. All three Democrats on the ballot have been recommended for retention and praised by the nonpartisan Pennsylvania Bar Association.

But this year — as in high-profile court, gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races in other states in recent years — the contest to maintain or upend Pennsylvania's high court is seen by many experts, playmakers and donors as part of a national battle over some of the country's most contentious issues.

National and state Democratic and progressive groups, along with the state GOP and a conservative advocacy network tied to billionaire and longtime Republican megadonor, Jeffrey Yass, are effectively fighting over the future of abortion access, health care, mail ballots, term limits, redistricting and other election laws in what's already become the state's most costly retention election.

"The (Democratic National Committee) is all hands on deck to make sure Democrats have the resources to contact Pennsylvania voters across the commonwealth about the stakes of this election," DNC chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. "Pennsylvania's Supreme Court retention races are some of the most important 2025 elections ahead of 2028 and will determine the future of abortion access, voting rights, education funding, and so much more for years to come."

Republican and Democratic interest groups — accusing each other of extremism — continue to pour money into a flood of ads, mailers and get-out-the-vote efforts. At least $8 million combined had been spent by both sides as of early October, with hundreds of thousands of dollars more invested over the last two weeks and many voters remaining undecided, according to recent polling.

Political strategists and academics tell the Post-Gazette that groups on the right have launched the first well-funded, organized effort to potentially upend the state court, casting the retention elections as a fight for term limits and a push to oust justices who supported pandemic lockdowns.

"Pennsylvania has an amazing opportunity this November to remove three partisan, activist Supreme Court justices who are running for another 10-year term," Pennsylvania GOP spokesman James Markley recently told the Post-Gazette. "These are the same judges that locked us down during COVID and did irreversible harm to small businesses, churches and our children's education."

If any of the judges is not retained, Gov. Josh Shapiro — who backs all three Democratic justices — would appoint a successor. The appointment would need approval from the Republican-controlled state Senate. That individual would serve until a new justice would be chosen for a 10-year-term in a 2027 election.

"While retention elections have not historically attracted big spending and national attention, judicial elections have changed dramatically in recent years," Douglas Keith, deputy director of the Judiciary Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, wrote earlier this month.

"Political parties, donors, and other interests have increasingly understood that these courts are central to major policy fights, and that their decisions can have national implications."

'Pennsylvanians, not politicians'

National groups such as Reproductive Freedom for All and Planned Parenthood have pressed in recent weeks to make voters aware of the stakes, making the case that the Democratic-majority court is the last line of defense for abortion rights.

In recent years, the high court has made critical rulings on abortion at a time when advocates and Democratic leaders hope to prevent Pennsylvania from joining the ranks of states that have restricted access since the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade.

"These are the leaders who've stood up for reproductive freedom, health care access and democracy," Mini Timmaraju, president and CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All, wrote in a LinkedIn post last week as the group kicked off a canvassing effort alongside Planned Parenthood Pennsylvania PAC and Justice Wecht. "They have helped ensure that Pennsylvanians, not politicians, make decisions about their own bodies."

The Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit announced last week a $5 million campaign "to turn out voters, hold anti-abortion extremists accountable, and defend against attacks on reproductive freedom" across multiple states including Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Virginia.

The group said the effort includes digital and field tactics, grassroots organizing and paid media. It added that more than 178,000 members across Pennsylvania are mobilizing through calls, texts and volunteer-led events to protect the state's "reproductive freedom champions."

"In this era of nonstop attacks on our freedoms, the courts are some of our strongest defenders," the group said.

Earlier this month, Planned Parenthood Votes, the national organization's super PAC, launched a six-figure direct mail campaign that includes mailers arguing "anti-abortion billionaires are coming after our rights." One mailer said the three Democratic justices helped pave the way to protect abortion in the state, along with access to birth control and prenatal care.

The balance of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court could shift dramatically if the justices are not retained, leaving an uncertain future for abortion and health care with the 2026 midterm elections, the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race and the 2028 presidential election looming.

Last Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee said abortion rights were at stake as it announced a "final get out the vote push" across Pennsylvania. The move comes a week after Martin, the DNC leader, visited Pittsburgh to campaign for the justices.

The DNC did not detail the total amount invested, but said the effort would include funding for voter contact efforts in the field, a digital media blitz, voter protection efforts, and ensuring voters who requested a ballot have received one.

The DNC noted the party is over-performing in special elections this year "by 15 points on average," with Democrats making the case that voters are rejecting much of Trump's agenda in Pennsylvania and beyond.

In Lancaster County — Trump country since 2016 — a Democrat in March won a state Senate seat held by Republicans for more than a century.

'Term limit'

The Republican State Leadership Committee's Judicial Fairness Initiative has invested at least $118,000 in "NO in November" ads on Google. Many county Republican committees are running ads on Facebook, where posts consistently urge voters to cast "no" votes against what they describe as "radical left" justices.

"Stop the woke agenda," reads one ad from the Centre County Republican Committee. "Term limit the Supreme Court."

The ads and mailers from conservatives have largely not addressed abortion or health care, although some have argued a vote against retention would "protect women" or "protect families."

In recent weeks, the Yass-tied Commonwealth Partners has funded several ads on Meta platforms Facebook and Instagram, with investments ranging from hundreds of dollars to several thousand.

A video ad from the group that began running last week called the justices "dangerous," highlighting the overturning of Bill Cosby's conviction without naming the man "accused of assaulting over 60 women."

The state Supreme Court in 2021 ruled that a non-prosecution agreement between Cosby and prosecutors should have been enforced. The conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court then declined to hear an appeal from Pennsylvania prosecutors.

'Lousy turnout, huge impact'

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee plans to spend six figures focused on the retention election, and the American Civil Liberties Union and ACLU of Pennsylvania say they'll pump $500,000 into an effort educating voters on the "pivotal" vote.

People Power Pennsylvania, a Philadelphia-based super PAC, has spent more than $100,000 on advertising over Google, including ads highlighting that 19 other states have restricted or banned abortion and urging state residents to keep the court independent with a "yes" vote. The group has also spent tens of thousands of dollars pressing for retention in ads Facebook and Instagram.

Defend Our Courts, another Philadelphia-based PAC, has spent almost $1 million this year in the lead up to the retention election, according to its state campaign finance reports. That includes spending on dozens of ads on Instagram and Facebook, informing viewers of the retention election process, potential impacts to abortion rights, and calls to "stand up to MAGA," "protect your rights," and "preserve the rule of law."

Shapiro recently taped an ad that is running on TV and on social media, saying the Democratic justices have "proven we can count on them to protect a woman's access to abortion and birth control — and stand up for all our freedoms."

Republican State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, who launched a bid for governor this summer, urged voters recently to vote against retention.

"If we allow them to remain unchecked, these justices could continue pushing judicial activism on election law, redistricting and other issues that affect ALL Pennsylvanians," she said in a post on social media.

Democratic groups have noted that Garrity supported the overturning of Roe, and that her campaign website previously sold anti-abortion merchandise. She has since said she would not support a state ban.

Republican Sen. Dave McCormick recently shared on his campaign's X account a post by conservative activist Scott Presler, who has been rallying Republicans in Pennsylvania to vote early and to vote against retention.

"I hope you understand how big of a deal this is that we can defeat three Democrat Supreme Court justices in one election," Presler said.

Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat, in a recent fundraising email had urged Pennsylvanians to register to vote by the Oct. 20 deadline.

"Judicial elections draw lousy turnout," he said. "But they have a huge impact. The (Pennsylvania) Supreme Court rules on things like redistricting, reproductive rights, election laws, equal rights, and environmental protections."

What motivates voters?

Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant based in Harrisburg, downplayed the importance of abortion in the contest.

He noted the state has a House led by Democrats and a Democratic governor being challenged by someone in Garrity who says she would respect current state law allowing abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy.

Nicholas argued that concerns about abortion rights, like Democrats' dislike of Trump, riles up the base but may not be a major factor for voters on the fence.

"That issue is not going anywhere," he said. "But it's an issue (Democrats) can use to try and scare voters, plus it's a unifying issue for them, like a political comfy blanket. That's why a lot of the advertising is focused on that."

Still, he said the same of some core conservative "no vote" messaging, including "talking about woke judges and term limits."

"That will certainly animate their base," he said. "But I'm not sure what it does for swing voters."

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