WASHINGTON — While it may take a few days, or even weeks, to properly digest the 2025 elections, the results are clear: Democrats won decisively. In races from New Jersey and Virginia to Georgia and California, there really wasn’t any ambiguity about who won and who lost.

Even though votes are still being counted and final margins aren’t yet known, there are some initial takeaways.

Here are a dozen things I think I think after what happened this week.

Republicans have work to do

Yes, Democrats won the governorships of two Democratic-leaning states, but their margins of victory showed that Republicans could have a problem reassembling President Donald Trump’s coalition when he’s not on the ballot.

Trump lost Virginia by 6 points a year ago, while Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger is poised to win the governorship by 15 points. Trump held Vice President Kamala Harris to a 6-point win in New Jersey in 2024, while Rep. Mikie Sherrill could end up winning the gubernatorial race by a dozen points when all the votes are counted.

The House was in play before the 2025 elections, and it’s in play after the elections

On paper, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip the House next year. Functionally, that number should be higher because of Republicans’ overall advantage in mid-decade redistricting.

But the passage of Proposition 50 in California, which green-lights a new Democratic-drawn map, coupled with Democrats’ strong overperformance in key races, shows the GOP majority remains at risk.

Republicans still have the advantage to hold the Senate in 2026

Despite Democrats’ sweeping gains this year, it’s not immediately clear whether they’ll be able to win in Republican-leaning states such as Ohio, Iowa, Texas or Alaska next year. They’d need to flip Senate seats in at least two of those states to get to 51 seats.

Republicans’ best race was one where their candidate received 8% of the vote

GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa hemorrhaged support in the final days of the New York City mayoral contest, but Democrat Zohran Mamdani’s victory is the silver lining in an otherwise rough night for Republicans.

Republicans will attempt to make the self-identifying democratic socialist the face of the national Democratic Party. Democrats can’t dismiss it because the party has no clear leader at the moment, and it fits into the narrative that Democratic politicians are too far to the left and too out of touch. But it’s also hard to believe that the 2026 midterm elections will be defined by who’s the mayor of New York City.

Parties don’t have to have a clear leader, a clear message or be popular in order to win

Democrats this year showed that, similar to their own party in 2005 or Republicans in 2009, you don’t have to have a clear national leader or a clear message or even be popular to win elections.

When voters are dissatisfied, they tend to focus on the party in power and are less bothered by the warts of the party out of power. This year’s elections were more of a repudiation of the status quo rather than an embrace of the Democratic Party.

We’ve got to listen to the politicians and party officials

I’ve said it before, but it’s important to listen carefully to the politicians and party strategists, because what happened in the elections matters less than what the politicians think happened in the elections.

Because what politicians think happened in the elections will drive future behavior. Trump’s initial response was to blame the results on the shutdown and his absence from the ballot. If he believes that, it could lead to him being more engaged to end the shutdown. But it also means Republicans could be in a lot of trouble next year because there’s no way to put his name on the ballot next year.

The elections weren’t a strict referendum on Trump

That’s true, but the elections took place in an environment in which voters were primed for change because of the president’s poor job rating. Despite the supreme confidence displayed by Republicans in Washington, Tuesday’s results showed there’s some unrest with the current state of the country.

To put it another way, if Trump had a positive job approval ratings or there were a Democratic president, these elections would have looked different, at least on the margins, if not the results.

Ballot measures are easier to pass when it’s a partisan race in a partisan state

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and his fellow Democrats did a good job of framing the state’s redistricting measure as a partisan fight and a statement against Trump. Framing Proposition 50 as a nuanced lesson in redistricting would have been confusing and would have likely failed.

Ballot measures often die in a cloud of confusion. But making it a straight partisan fight in a Democratic state was effective.

Newsom will be part of the 2028 conversation

By taking on Trump and winning, Newsom has solidified his place as a future Democratic presidential contender. That doesn’t mean he’ll be the nominee, but he has the profile and infrastructure to make an impact.

Spanberger will be part of the 2028 conversation

With an elevated profile as governor and as a woman with a national security background, Spanberger will be in the mix for a slot on the future Democratic ticket. Yes, I know, she hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but she doesn’t have to make any moves for a couple of years.

Partisanship forgives a multitude of sins

Democrat Jay Jones’ victory for Virginia attorney general, in spite of him musing in 2022 texts about the death of a political opponent and his young children, showed that partisanship is a heck of a drug. Terrible acts committed by a political ally are easily forgiven while anything short of the death penalty is prescribed when an opponent does something wrong.

Only 41% of Virginia voters said Jones’ texts were disqualifying, according to the exit polls, and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares received 47% of the vote. The bottom line is that we’re completely lost when it comes to what qualifies or disqualifies a candidate.

Speaker Mike Johnson caught a break

No candidate received more than 50% in the special election in Texas’ 18th District to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner. Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards will advance to a yet-to-be-scheduled runoff.

That means Johnson avoids having to sideline two Democratic members-elect. For now, it’s just Adelita Grijalva of Arizona. It would have been even tougher to justify not swearing a Democrat in if there were two of them.

House Republicans still have a vacancy of their own, with a special election in Tennessee’s 7th District scheduled for Dec. 2.

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