WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump will head to his resort in Florida this week for a Thanksgiving celebration by the sea. Perhaps turkey and trimmings at Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, just off the casino-lined Strip, would have been more apropos.

That’s because, on matters foreign and domestic, the president has turned to staking his second term on a number of high-risk political bets.

Last week, he appeared to thumb his nose at military guidelines and norms by suggesting that a group of congressional Democrats who had urged U.S. troops to ignore illegal orders should be put to death.

“No,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt replied when asked whether Trump wanted sitting members of Congress executed — in another remarkable moment in the James S. Brady Briefing Room.

“Many in this room want to talk about the president’s response, but not what brought the president to responding in this way,” Leavitt said. Still, she left open the possibility that the lawmakers who advised troops in a social media video to ignore an illegal Trump order could be “punishable by law,” before adding the caveat: “I’m not a lawyer.”

In recent weeks, Trump has further aligned himself with Saudi Arabia’s economic and military ambitions, reversed course to back a bipartisan push to release long-sealed Jeffrey Epstein documents and tried convincing American consumers that prices are not still stubbornly high. Each action reflects a familiar Trump instinct: project confidence, deflect, distract and force political opponents to react.

But taken together, the gambles represent a particularly high-stakes moment for a president who has for a decade insisted he is the only figure capable of stabilizing the U.S. economy and restoring the country’s global leverage. Whether one or all of the sizable risks ultimately yield political rewards for Trump or his Republican allies in Congress remains far from certain.

Kingdom, come

Trump’s aggressive push for expanded economic and defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia underscores a broader tendency to tie America’s financial future, in part, with his family’s foreign investments while portraying himself as uniquely positioned to negotiate favorable deals. He also has continued to insist that he alone can successfully navigate how such moves to get closer to Arab allies might irritate Israel.

Supporters view the Saudi alliance as strategic pragmatism, an effort to keep energy markets stable and secure capital for promised job-creating investment projects in the United States. But critics warn that deeper military collaboration could strengthen Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s regional influence at the expense of U.S. interests and human rights priorities.

Seated alongside the crown prince in the Oval Office last week, Trump signaled that, unlike some of his predecessors, he isn’t worried about alleged Saudi human rights abuses.

“I’m very proud of the job he’s done,” Trump said of the crown prince, popularly known as MBS. “What he’s done is incredible in terms of human rights and everything else.”

The move closer to MBS has invited fresh scrutiny from congressional Democrats and watchdog groups of Trump’s long-standing personal and financial ties to Saudi leaders, including dealings through his family’s business ventures.

“Bypassing Congress on commitments of this scale sets a dangerous precedent, especially after a similar agreement with Qatar without Senate approval,” Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said of the new U.S. security commitment and pledge to send F-35 fighters and microchips to the kingdom.

“The president’s plan to sell dozens of F-35 aircraft to Saudi Arabia also raises major concerns about protecting U.S. military technology and the military edge America shares with our allies,” her statement continued. “The administration must fully explain to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee why this sale is in the vital national interest of the United States.”

For a president who again last week framed himself as insulated from any foreign pressure on his family business, which he again contended that his children manage, the optics remain politically sensitive — especially heading into a midterm election cycle when House Republicans will be defending their narrow majority.

Epstein earthquake

It was the Truth Social post heard around the world. Trump on Nov. 16 stunned the political universe by announcing he would sign a House-crafted measure aimed at securing the release of files related to disgraced sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump’s decision to sign the bill, which sailed through both chambers with one dissenting House vote, was a rare case of the ultimate political brawler opting to throw in the towel. The calculation appeared rooted in Trump’s desire to avoid what could have been one of the biggest political embarrassments of either term, as well as in his contention that any coming disclosures would damage political adversaries much more than himself.

But the bipartisan vote to compel the release of Epstein-related documents underscores how unpredictable the fallout could be. Both parties have supporters worried that prominent names from politics, entertainment, sports, finance and beyond could be soiled.

Even without new revelations involving Trump himself, the renewed focus on Epstein, a figure Trump has admitted to knowing socially, could present a distraction at a moment when the White House wants to close out the first year of his second term with a bang.

An Economist/YouGov poll released last week found most Americans believe Trump had a lot (45%) or some (24%) knowledge of Epstein’s crimes, while 8% said he knew nothing and 23% weren’t sure. (Trump has not been accused or convicted of any wrongdoing related to the disgraced financier, and neither have the Democrats whom Trump has accused.)

Price point

But perhaps the biggest head-scratcher of Trump’s “gambler” phase has been his continued contention that prices are “way down” across the board, even as Democrats largely cleaned up in this month’s off-year elections after making affordability a key campaign issue.

“They’re having a ‘Great Gatsby’ party at Mar-a-Lago during the (government) shutdown,” former Rep. Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican, said during a recent telephone interview, referring to last month’s themed Halloween event at the president’s Florida resort. “People aren’t getting their benefits or they’re not getting paid, but they’re celebrating the excesses of the 1920s? The images are just terrible.”

“In a more normal political environment, people would have a better antenna to detect this stuff,” Dent added. “I guess the Trump people think they’re untouchable, but the (election) results show people are noticing these things — and they’re just not having it.”

The president’s messaging strategy ignores his own government’s data on the prices of various consumer items. By choosing not to frame the price problem plainly, Trump has opted against trying to position himself as a populist leader who shares the public’s frustrations or, perhaps just as importantly, is ready to offer policy ideas to revive a sputtering economy, which polls show the public at large has little confidence in.

For Trump, though, risk has long been a political asset.

Taking political risks and blowing past norms fueled his rise by energizing supporters who viewed his determination for disruption as a strength — and something the country badly needed.

Notably, in recent days, two top Trump lieutenants — Vice President JD Vance and Kevin Hassett, the White House’s chief economic adviser — tried to moderate the boss’ claims about lower prices.

“Look, we get it, and we hear you, and we know there’s a lot of work to do,” Vance told Breitbart News on Thursday, before later adding, “The thing that I’d ask from the American people is a little bit of patience.”

‘Based on instincts’

Closer ties to Saudi Arabia could drive new concerns about foreign influence over his decision-making. Expected Epstein document disclosures could produce consequences neither party can fully predict.

And a stubborn insistence on misleading messaging on inflation could backfire if frustrated and insulted voters conclude that Trump lacks what it takes to slash prices on food, electricity, medical care, transportation and other staples of everyday life.

Trump signaled Wednesday that he has been letting his instincts chart the course for term No. 2.

“It’s all based on instincts,” the president said at a U.S.-Saudi investment forum in Washington.

Whether that approach shows shrewdness or naivete ultimately will depend on how the coming months unfold and how much uncertainty voters are willing to tolerate.

It all will decide whether Trump could soon become a lame-duck president, even before the midterm cycle heats up.

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