Democrats see opportunity in Ohio beyond battleground House seats

WASHINGTON — In their quest to flip the House this year, Democrats have their eyes on a handful of Ohio seats the party hasn’t held in decades.

In a Dayton-area district, nurse practitioner and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker is highlighting her health care experience and military background as keys to bridging the partisan divide.

In a seat south of Cleveland, Democrat Brian Poindexter says his working-class perspective and job as a union ironworker bolsters his connection with economically anxious voters across party lines.

Democratic strategists say Knickerbocker and Poindexter represent two of the party’s best chances of dislodging GOP incumbents in barn-red Ohio. It won’t be easy: Over the past decade, The Buckeye State has gone from a patchwork of purple to a swath of deep crimson, and Democrats have seen their hopes of making gains dashed repeatedly.

Ohio has also had Republican-favored congressional maps for decades. While the new House map adopted last fall represented a compromise by the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, Donald Trump would have carried 12 of Ohio’s 15 districts under the current lines.

But Democratic officials point to a convergence of factors that could make Ohio voters more hospitable to their midterm message, including growing disenchantment with the president’s policies and historical trends that typically lift the party that doesn’t control the White House.

“This isn’t about party labels — it’s about working families who are feeling the devastating consequences of Republicans’ failed agenda on affordability and health care every single day,’’ Riya Vashi, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an email. “We’ve won these seats before, and we will do so again in November when Ohio voters elect leaders who will actually fight for them.”

That confidence is reflected in Democrats’ decision to place on its 2026 target list both Ohio’s 10th District, where Knickerbocker is running against longtime Republican Rep. Michael R. Turner, and the 7th, where Poindexter and former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald are vying to unseat Republican Max Miller.

The DCCC is also targeting the 15th District held by Republican Mike Carey, where teacher and Army reservist Adam Miller is running. Miller was the party’s 2024 nominee, losing to Carey 43% to 56%.

Republicans scoff at the notion that Turner, a 12-term incumbent who won reelection by 18 points in 2024, and Miller, who won a second term by 15 points last cycle, are vulnerable.

“National Democrats are panicking and it shows,’’ said Zach Bannon, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “Reps. Turner and Miller are battle-tested incumbents who consistently overperform and deliver results for Ohio, while Democrats resort to fantasy and spin.”

Selling their message

Running in a district that Trump would have carried by 11 points in 2024, according to calculations by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, Poindexter has focused on economic populism, asserting that working-class voters in Ohio have “lost faith in the Democratic Party.”

“I understand why people decided to vote for Trump. He ran on making it better, but in a lot of ways it’s gotten worse,” said Poindexter, who grew up on the west side of Cleveland, the son of a factory worker and a homemaker. “It really doesn’t seem like there’s anyone fighting for us.”

Miller is a Trump loyalist who worked in the White House during the president’s first term. But earlier this month, he was one of 17 Republicans who defied Speaker Mike Johnson and voted with Democrats on a three-year extension of enhanced health insurance tax credits for Affordable Care Act plans.

“A permanent extension of the … tax credits would be fiscally unsustainable and ultimately irresponsible,’’ Miller said in a Jan. 8 statement. “At the same time, it would be irresponsible to pull the rug out from under my constituents before we have a final product.”

Poindexter said Miller’s “last minute change of heart” isn’t going to help voters grappling with rising costs.

Like Poindexter — and most other Democrats running this year — Knickerbocker is emphasizing pocketbook issues.

“Americans are losing faith in their leaders, and our bills are too high,’’ she said. “People are losing access to health care and health insurance, and it’s time to prioritize solutions over partisan politics.”

A first-time candidate, Knickerbocker is one of a number of female contenders with military experience on the ballot this year. Supporters say her background could carry extra resonance in Ohio’s 10th, home to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

But in Turner, a former Dayton mayor first elected to the House in 2002, Democrats face a formidable opponent who cuts a more moderate profile and routinely outperforms the top of the Republican ticket.

In a recent interview with the Dayton Daily News, Turner nodded to the competitive nature of the district, which shifted a tad to the right under the new map — Trump would have carried it by 8 points in 2024. But the former House Intelligence chair emphasized his experience and work on national security.

“I’m endorsed by Donald Trump but at the same time I think I’m able to balance my voice being important for the community and for representing all of the 10th District,’’ he told the newspaper.

Inside Elections rates the races for both the 7th and 10th districts as Solid Republican.

The broader landscape

As House Democrats seek to expand their map of potential pickup opportunities, they will also have to devote significant resources to preserving the Ohio seats they already hold.

Chief among them is the 9th District represented by Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in congressional history. First elected in 1982, Kaptur saw her red-leaning district in the Toledo area moved further right in the latest round of redistricting — Trump would have carried it by 11 points. She faces several GOP challengers in a race Inside Elections rates Tilt Republican.

Democrats are also defending Rep. Greg Landsman in the 1st District, newly reconfigured as a Trump-won seat in the Cincinnati area. And in the Akron-anchored 13th District, Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes is seeking a third term, though her seat grew a shade bluer in redistricting. Inside Elections rates Landsman’s race a Toss-up and the 13th District contest as Likely Democratic.

David Jackson, a political scientist at Bowling Green State University, said both Poindexter and Knickerbocker could get a boost from former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid. Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to fill a vacancy when JD Vance became vice president.

“If Democrats can’t do well in Ohio in 2026, maybe writing us off as a red state makes some sense,’’ Jackson said. “With Sherrod Brown on the ballot, and with Trump’s low approval ratings … they should do well in Ohio this time.”

“Will they? I don’t know.”