Tom Krasovic: Pitching-hungry Padres get their fill with innings-eater Nick Pivetta
Published in Baseball
SAN DIEGO — The source of the loud whoosh that blew into San Diego last week from Padres camp in Peoria, Ariz., was a robust sigh of relief from Padres players and staff.
(Actually, the sound may have been a Santa Ana gust. Allow me some poetry here.)
The Padres were in strong need of an innings-eating pitcher who could slot behind tri-aces Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish and in front of several less-established pitchers.
Last week’s signing of former Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta filled that hole, and you can be sure Padres players are grateful Nick The Arm is joining them for the long journey ahead.
Though he probably won’t contend for a Cy Young award and no one should ever be surprised if a pitcher’s arm gives out, Pivetta is among the better bets in Major League Baseball to complete 150 innings or more in 2025.
That workload projection may not impress Padres fans who remember Randy Jones soaking up 315 innings in 1976 or Kevin Brown throwing almost 300 innings across the 1998 season and postseason.
But in today’s power-obsessed game that’s experiencing a troublesome rate of pitchers’ injuries, the Pivetta types fill a valuable niche.
In each of the past four years with the Red Sox, Pivetta put up between 140 to 180 innings. His total of 623 innings landed 23rd in the big leagues. His average of 155 innings would’ve placed third on the Padres last season.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander also strikes out hitters at a high rate with a hot fastball and up to four types of right-to-left breaking pitches.
Pivetta, 32, stands fifth in strikeouts per nine innings among the aforementioned innings-eating group of the past four years.
The four K-masters above him are familiar to most casual fans: Padres teammate Cease, Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman and Corbin Burnes, the former Brewers and Orioles ace who last month joined the Diamondbacks on a $210 million contract.
How good is Pivetta’s strikeout rate of 10 2/3 per nine innings over the past four years? It edged out the great Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler.
Pivetta’s command of the strike zone doesn’t merit ace status. Hence his so-so season ERAs of 4.53, 4.56, 4.04 and 4.14 from 2021 through last year.
His ERA of 4.33 over those four seasons, when adjusted for ballpark conditions and other league context, sits two points better than league average.
Let’s keep the main thing the main thing here.
The Padres are trying to win their first World Series trophy. If Pivetta pitches to his norms, he will go through hot and cold stretches, but he will, on balance, improve the team’s odds of earning a fourth wild-card berth in six years.
Of all the Padres who applauded Pivetta’s signing, I’d guess that team elders Manny Machado and Darvish were the most excited.
They’re due to turn 33 and 39 this summer and have never been part of a World Series champion roster.
If Padres ownership were to punt on a season, they’d be more bummed out than most players. Sand. Hourglass.
But Padres ownership isn’t punting on this season, nor should it. Pivetta’s signing made that reality more clear.
Paying up, A.J. Preller guaranteed Pivetta $55 million. The signing will cost the Padres a high-end pick in this year’s amateur draft and $500,000 in next year’s international amateur budget.
The Red Sox have to be pleased, too, by the transaction.
Because Pivetta turned down their qualifying offer of $21.05 million in November, they’ll get a Padres draft pick near the 75th slot this summer.
The Red Sox like the precedent there. Two years ago, they drafted teenager Kristian Campbell 132nd as compensation for losing Xander Bogaerts to the Padres. Campbell, a .327 career hitter in the minor leagues, enters this season as Baseball America’s No. 4 prospect.
In November, the Red Sox replaced Pivetta by signing Walker Buehler, the former Dodger, to a one-year contract worth exactly $21.05 million. The move didn’t cost Boston a draft pick.
Presumably, the Padres had some interest in Buehler, whose clutch pitching last October was crucial to Los Angeles winning the World Series. But Preller couldn’t have viewed Buehler as a great bet to log a high innings total. Two years ago, he had his second reconstructive elbow procedure.
Pivetta, conversely, has a remarkably clean medical record for a veteran pitcher. He has gone on the injury list with an arm ailment just once during a professional career that began in 2013 with a Phillies affiliate. That injury, a flexor tendon strain, sidelined him for a month early last season. His only other arm injury came during his high school career in Victoria, Canada.
The Padres played the odds here, adding a durable flyball-and-strikeout pitcher to their pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Credit Padres fans with an assist. Projected strong attendance made the back-loaded contract more digestible.
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