Matt Calkins: Yes, Julio Rodríguez earned his All-Star nod. Just not in the way we expected.

Matt Calkins, The Seattle Times on Jul 7, 2025

Published in Baseball

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

SEATTLE — He’ll be in Atlanta with three of his teammates next week, and if you’re a Mariners fan, you’re all for it.

The selection certainly beefs up a résumé that may be on the brink of the Hall of Fame when he’s retired, but if you’ve been watching him this season, you have to wonder.

For the third time in his four-year career, Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez is an All-Star. The question is: Does that seem right?

The argument for Rodríguez getting another nod in the Midsummer Classic is that he has been one of the best defensive players in baseball. Not one of the best defensive outfielders — players, period. According to the Fielding Bible, Rodríguez is seventh among major leaguers with 12 defensive runs saved. No American League outfielder has more.

If you want more defensive stats, there’s dWAR, a measure for defensive wins above replacement, as well. There, Rodríguez is fourth in MLB with a mark of 1.6. Skilled as Rodríguez has been in center throughout his young career, before this season, his highest dWAR season was 0.7. At this pace, he may quadruple that number by the time the year is done.

Some might wonder if Julio ever would have had a chance at making the All-Star team before the stat-geek revolution that changed how a player’s value is analyzed. They would look at his career-low .247 batting average and his career-low .695 OPS and be befuddled as to how he is considered to be among the game’s elite. But he also has 15 stolen bases on 18 attempts, and a Baseball Reference WAR of 3.4 — tied for 22nd in MLB. But I don’t know … do you really consider Rodríguez to be a top-25 player in baseball right now?

The reason I isolated “Baseball Reference” WAR is because that site isn’t the only one that attempts to assign an all-encompassing stat regarding a player’s value. FanGraphs does the same thing, and the disparity in their evaluations are noteworthy to say the least.

For example, FanGraphs says Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has a WAR of 5.7 and is the clear No. 2 player in baseball behind Aaron Judge (7.1). But Baseball Reference says Raleigh has a WAR of 4.7 and is the fifth-best in MLB. So what does FanGraphs say about Julio? That with a WAR of 2.4, he is the 61st most impactful player in the league.

Tied for 22nd in one and 61st in another? Might we be relying a little too much on analytics?

Because there certainly is a case against Rodríguez being deserving. And it’s not just the aforementioned offensive numbers that suggest he’s having the least productive season of his career at the plate. It’s the fact that he’s hitting .209 with runners in scoring position. That’s 132nd in MLB. With runners in scoring position with two outs, Julio is hitting .175. That’s 128th.

To be fair, Shohei Ohtani is hitting .218 with RISP — good for 125th. Nobody is accusing him of having a down year. But how many times have you seen Rodríguez walk up to the plate with the chance to make an impact, only for those “Ju-li-o!” chants to be met with a K or a pop out?

Still, with 64 total players getting an All-Star slot, Julio’s selection doesn’t seem like an extreme. He might not have the traditional stats on his side, but he has the defensive production that has impressed the sabermetrics folks (some more than others), and has rightfully earned a chance to play on July 15.

This speaks to a couple of things:

— How much differently value is perceived now versus before the turn of the century.

— The lack of depth among AL outfielders this season.

It’s basically impossible to select 32 players from each league and not have fans of certain teams feel like one of their guys got snubbed. This would be true if there were 16 on each side or 160.

But here’s what I’d say about Julio: He earned a spot. Not convincingly. Not enough for him to complain if he wasn’t selected. But he earned it nonetheless.

Here’s what I’d also say about Julio: He needs to do more in the second half of the season. He knows that as well as anyone. Majestic as he has been with his glove this season, his bat has got to catch up.

A postseason berth for the Mariners may depend on it. The man is having a good season — but good may not be good enough.

____