Jason Mackey: As MLB Home Run Derby nears, let's have an honest conversation about Oneil Cruz
Published in Baseball
PITTSBURGH — When Oneil Cruz steps into the batter's box at Truist Park in Atlanta for the MLB Home Run Derby on Monday night, on the surface it offers the snuggest of fits.
A gigantic man who can hit towering home runs and enjoys entertaining fans charged with putting on a show. It should be must-see TV for much of the country.
Here in Pittsburgh, however, the presence and perception of Cruz will continue to vary, because ... well, it's sort of always been that way, a dichotomy that I think warrants a deeper discussion.
Some look at the 6-foot-7 native of Nizao, Dominican Republic, and see a fun and dynamic player, his exit velocity and the distance Cruz can hit a baseball remarkable. Others watch Cruz and become overly fixated on the bad — the strikeouts and occasional lack of effort, as well as his fielding and baserunning misadventures.
Reality, as it often does, resides somewhere in the middle, though I fail to understand what's so difficult or offensive about offering an honest appraisal of Cruz's game. (Tougher than you think on the hellscape formerly known as Twitter.)
Cruz isn't perfect and must improve in several areas, effort and focus chief among them. But he's also capable of doing things few others can. I'm sure not willing to punt on his enormous potential any time soon.
More than anything, it's why I can't wait to watch Cruz participate — and possibly win — in the Home Run Derby. Shoot, I wouldn't be shocked if, by late Monday, Cruz became the talk of the baseball world for the performance he's capable of delivering in this event.
There's nothing on a baseball field he's better-equipped to dominate, and he's already delivered ample evidence: his best-in-baseball average exit velocity (96.4 mph), barrel percentage (22.5%), bat speed (78.6 mph) and so much more.
Cruz has hit the hardest home run in the Statcast Era (since 2015) this season at 122.9 mph, and it's bound to happen again in Atlanta. Totally serious, MLB might consider having the kids doing something other than shag flies while Cruz hits.
It also doesn't make Cruz a finished MLB product at the plate, because he's not.
Cruz is hitting .134 against lefties this season. He's also hitting just .175 since June and has a 32.4% strikeout rate over 83 games, which simply can't happen. The Pirates need more consistent contact from Cruz, who's still played just over two seasons of MLB games (327).
What Cruz has accomplished thus far had me searching for some additional Pirates perspective, and I came across something that grabbed my attention. I'm also not saying they're similar players because they're not. But the production thus far made me think.
The player: Neil Walker.
In Walker's first 286 MLB games, the No. 11 overall pick in the 2004 MLB draft was worth 4.1 wins above replacement, per Baseball Reference. He also hit .280 with a .761 OPS that included 24 homers and had an OPS+ (where 100 is considered average) of 110.
Cruz, meanwhile, has a .755 OPS in those 327 games, with 56 home runs and a 109 OPS+. He's been worth 6.1 bWAR compared to 4.7 for Walker when you adjust to match the sample sizes, and the spread is wider if you shift over to FanGraphs, which tends to place a heavier emphasis on offense in its WAR calculations.
— My point 1.0: Cruz has been pretty darn good. (He also has 64 steals compared to 12 for Walker.)
— My point 2.0: It's OK to extend some grace here and allow for Cruz to develop.
— My point 3.0: Look at that homer total and consider whether you're willing to accept the gap in average (.280 to .239). I know I am.
Furthermore, the idea that Cruz is a finished product at 26 is ridiculous. Were you? I sure wasn't. What genius has determined that Cruz can't get better?
For anyone who thinks players are robots and should all be looked at the same, please take a trip to the Dominican Republic and observe some of the not-ready-for-vacation areas. Or at least Google them. It's ... not great.
Latin American players rarely have the same access to equipment, facilities or coaching and often have to follow a certain path to get out of their home countries and make it in baseball: take the showcase route.
How hard can you hit or throw? Can you run fast? Lean into the tools and figure the rest out later. Cruz is no different.
Much of that remains a work in progress with Cruz — and it's in no way absolving some of the silly stuff he's done. I actually think fans see Cruz's enormous potential and become even more offended that he's not yet fulfilled it.
But that doesn't make him a bad player. It makes him an important, ongoing project for the Pirates.
Because that's what I see with Cruz, someone who wants to be great and has gobs of talent ... but for a few reasons hasn't put it all together. And also someone who hasn't been properly held accountable until this season.
One of the best things the Pirates did was sign Carlos Santana, who looked after Cruz but also didn't coddle him, the veteran explaining what was required to become a star. Trying to replace Santana with the Rowdy Tellez-Connor Joe platoon was one of several numbers-driven missteps for this regime.
But how many times has Cruz made the first or last out of an inning at third, including on a grounder to the left side, without consequence? In the field, similar stuff, though I can live with the physical mistakes.
Only recently — when Cruz allowed a ball to roll past him in the outfield and a few days later dogged it to first because he forgot how many outs there were — did the Pirates finally take action.
Good, too.
I would've sat Cruz after the first incident, but I'm also not going to bury the kid or put artificial boundaries on him; it's almost like Pirates fans have been scarred by Gregory Polanco and believe every oversized Latin American player fits that mold.
No, Cruz is very much his own person. Like all of us, that includes imperfections. My suggestion: Enjoy Monday what he can do as well as anyone in MLB ... and hope like hell he and the Pirates can smooth out the rough edges in his game.
If they do, Cruz will be invited to do a lot more than the Home Run Derby.
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