Tom Krasovic: Bullpen gives Padres an edge over Dodgers, but will it be enough?

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Aug 15, 2025

Published in Baseball

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SAN DIEGO — There’s no secret how the Padres will try to win their first National League West title in 19 years.

By leveraging Major League Baseball’s best bullpen into enough victories over the final 41 games, the Padres believe they can outpace a Dodgers club that trails them by a game going into Friday’s series opener in Los Angeles.

The prize: a first-round playoff bye … if the West champion also surpasses either the Central champion (likely the Brewers) or the East champion (likely the Phillies).

The West runner-up has a very good chance, as things stand now, of landing one of three wild-card playoff spots.

If any team can bullpen its way past the Dodgers in the 162-game marathon — and perhaps do it again in October — it’s the Padres.

Labeled by Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora as MLB’s best bullpen before and after his team’s series in San Diego last weekend, the Padres’ relief crew stands first in several categories.

You can skip the ad in 5 sec with a mouse or keyboard The Padres are first in ERA, fielding-independent ERA and home run rate. The Dodgers’ bullpen sits 20th, 17th and 21st.

Bullpens can be volatile, but the Padres’ rare quality of depth and the widespread burden-sharing it fosters argues against a steep decline.

Padres relievers stand only 19th of 30 bullpens in pitches thrown, a remarkable team achievement given that ace Michael King has barely pitched since May 24 (and was put on the injured list Thursday with a knee ailment ) and starter Yu Darvish’s debut came just last month.

The pure stuff of Padres relievers makes a slump less likely, too.

In sinker velocity and horizontal movement, traits Cora singled out, Padres relievers lead MLB at 95.6 mph and 3.6 inches. Armed with perceived rising fastballs, too, the Padres rank first in “hop” — also known as vertical movement.

The Padres boast seven relievers whose fastballs average more than 95 mph: Mason Miller (101.2), Robert Suarez (98.5), Jeremiah Estrada (97.9), Adrian Morejon (97.5), David Morgan (97.4) and Wandy Peralta (95.3).

And Jason Adam’s fastball, hardly a slowpoke, paces at 94.5 mph. It’s fast enough to play up three other pitches the right-hander commands.

The Padres’ bullpen has been very healthy, too, by MLB standards.

The Dodgers have been hit hard by injuries to starting pitchers and relievers, a factor in L.A.’s bullpen leading the MLB in innings pitched for much of the season.

Injuries shut down several relievers who were stalwarts in the Dodgers’ run to the 2024 World Series title.

An elbow ailment ended the season of Evan Phillips, a longtime Dodgers standout. Only recently did L.A. regain Blake Treinen, a key figure in the club’s two World Series championships this decade.

Closer Tanner Scott (elbow) and setup man Kirby Yates (back) are expected to return this month. Brock Stewart, who was acquired at the trade deadline only to lose two leads and hit the injured list this week with a shoulder ailment, won’t be back before September, said manager Dave Roberts.

Scott, a former Padres reliever who joined the Dodgers in January on a four-year, $72 million contract, was having a disappointing season before he was put on the injured list on July 22.

Only three other teams have had more bullpen meltdowns this season than the Dodgers, per FanGraphs.com’s metrics. The reigning World Series champs can’t expect to win the West this year unless they get much better work from several relievers.

L.A. has the more talented offense, although the Padres’ moves at the trade deadline have cut into L.A.’s advantage. And the projection models of three analytics sites — FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference — still see the Dodgers as the NL West favorite, putting those title chances at 62.2%, 55.1% and 60.4%.

I see the Padres as an even-money choice. For everyone on a team, baseball is a lot more fun when the relief is reliably good.

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