David Murphy: Forget the Mets. The Phillies' playoff fate depends on the next nine games

There is no such thing as The Team to Beat in the major league playoffs. The Phillies have seen both sides of that coin. They were that team in 2010 and 2011. They beat that team in 2023.

Come October, there are only hot teams, hotter teams, and everybody else. Regular-season records have little correlation with which teams fall into which categories. It helps to be hot in September, except for when it doesn’t.

The Phillies are hot, and they also happen to be within striking distance of entering this year’s postseason with the best record in the National League.

Up 11 games on the Mets for the division. Down two games to the Brewers for the top overall seed. Up 4½ games on the Dodgers for the second seed and a bye through the wild-card round. That is where things stand after the Phillies swept the Mets in the series finale.

If the playoffs started Thursday, the Phillies would open the postseason with an NLDS matchup against the winner of a Mets-Dodgers wild-card series. The top-seeded Brewers would face the winner of Padres-Cubs.

But a lot can change over the next couple of weeks. As impressive as the Phillies were against the Mets, and as important as it was for them to slay the psychological demon that has haunted them since last October, the final battle for postseason position has only just begun.

The Phillies’ next nine games are as tough as they come this time of year. The headliner is a three-game road series against the Dodgers. But sandwiched around those games are three at home against the always-tough Royals and three on the road against a Diamondbacks team that is fighting for its playoff life. As big of a boost as the Phillies gave themselves in the division race against the Mets, all it could earn them is a wild-card series against those same Mets if they stumble against the Dodgers and D-Backs.

The moral of the story? Now is not the time to start taking selfies in bathroom mirrors. That’s the message Rob Thomson should be preaching as the Phillies host the Royals on Friday. The one-game-at-a-time ethos is a valuable thing, but it isn’t always the right approach when a team is coming off a series that feels like an achievement. Thomson should remind his team of the urgency of these next nine games. There’s a difference between playing with fear and playing with a mindful understanding of all there is to lose. Once the smoke has cleared, the Phillies are more than welcome to approach the Marlins and Twins one at a time.

The Phillies have plenty to gain outside of the win column. The last couple of weeks of the season are about postseason preparedness. It’s one of the reasons Thomson’s handling of his outfield has been so shrewd. The goal isn’t just to put the best lineup on the field each night, but to get his players accustomed to the way he is going to deploy them in October. If his veterans think they are most comfortable playing every day, well, time to practice playing outside their comfort zones.

Among the players who most need these last few weeks to get right:

1) Bryce Harper

Getting right is relative with Harper. He has played a big role in the Phillies’ recent surge, homering in four of their last 10 wins heading into Thursday. But he has been a shadow of his usual self since the brief eruption that followed his return from the injured list in late June. Heading into Thursday, he had a .297 on base percentage and .757 OPS in his last 34 games. It’s a testament to those around him that the Phillies were 22-12 in those games. But they are going to need him in a vintage groove in order to get to another World Series. The wrist is obviously a question.

2) Orion Kerkering

The Phillies desperately need somebody to step up to fill Jose Alvarado’s role once the postseason arrives. It will be interesting to see how Thomson handles the stretch run knowing that he won’t have Alvarado in the postseason, thanks to a PED suspension that, according to MLB rules, will render him ineligible. Kerkering is averaging more than two baserunners allowed per inning in his last nine appearances, with six of those coming via walk. He hasn’t made up for that traffic with his strikeout rate, which sits at a relatively pedestrian six Ks in 31 batters.

In theory, the Phillies could survive a postseason with David Robertson, Matt Strahm, and Jhoan Duran as their only reliable high-leverage options. But that depends on a couple of things. One, that they get six innings from their starter in every win. Two, that Strahm and Robertson remain pitching at their current levels.

3) Jesús Luzardo

He is the biggest wild card of them all. In fact, I think it’s likely that he will determine what kind of team the Phillies are this postseason. Cristopher Sánchez gives them an edge over just about anybody in Game 1. Ranger Suárez will give the rest of the team an opportunity to win Game 2. With Luzardo, it has been feast or famine. He has pitched like a guy who will either win you Game 3 or lose you Game 3. It would do wonders for the Phillies’ World Series odds to have Luzardo enter the postseason as the same guy who has a 2.64 ERA in his last eight starts.

These next couple of weeks are critical. Beating the Mets is always fun. But the real work has only just begun.

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