Kyle Schwarber's bet on himself paid off. And how he did it boosts his value -- even as a DH
Published in Baseball
Six months ago, before Kyle Schwarber went for his first lap around the bases this season, his agents had talks with the Phillies about a contract extension.
“Obviously,” Schwarber said in July, “they didn’t progress.”
So, the Phillies slugger did what most professional athletes do when they’re going into the last year of a contract. He paused the conversation, preferring to focus on competing before circling back when the season is over.
In other words, Schwarber bet on himself.
Because what followed was only one of the best all-time walk years. Schwarber is the second player in the Phillies’ 143-year history — and the 34th ever — to hit 50 homers in a season. Entering the weekend, with 15 games to go, he led the National League in homers and the majors in RBIs (123) while ranking fifth in slugging (. 560) and sixth in OPS+ (150).
You know that ringing-bell sound effect when a Phillies player homers in Citizens Bank Park? A cash register — cha-ching!— would’ve been more apt after Schwarbombs.
Schwarber’s season brings to mind Aaron Judge, who declined a $213.5 million offer from the Yankees before the 2022 season, then bashed 62 homers to eclipse Roger Maris’ 61-year-old franchise record and signed back with New York for $360 million.
Juan Soto was always destined for a free-agent bonanza last winter based on his surpassing talent and relative youth. (He just turned 26 when he went on the market.) A 179 OPS+ in his walk year with the Yankees, though, helped turn an as-expected payday into a gobsmacker — $765 million — from the Mets.
Schwarber won’t ride his massive contract year to those heights because designated hitters in their 30s don’t get paid like that. But the point is, for every Judge and Soto, dozens tripped when faced with optimizing their earning potential in the season leading to free agency. Adrian Beltré, for example, had an 83 OPS+ with the Mariners in 2009 and settled for a one-year deal with the Red Sox — “a pillow contract,” agent Scott Boras famously called it — to rebuild his value.
How did Schwarber avoid that trap?
“I guess I just don’t process it that way,” he told The Inquirer before a game this week. “Like the way that I process things is I just think about our group and I think about our team, and that’s it. I’m pretty adamant when I say that I don’t really think about personal accolades.”
Well, at least not in the context of individual goals. Instead, Schwarber said he views his numbers through the lens of how much they help the team win. His home-run total means less to him than the fact that the Phillies are 34-10 in games in which he goes deep.
“You want to perform well, you want to do good, everything like that,” Schwarber said. “But I feel like the more that you’re able to dive into your group and the team, like even if you’re struggling, go help someone else out. You might help yourself out. That’s the way I think about things.”
That’s Schwarber, regarded within the sport as Krazy Glue for a clubhouse. It isn’t coincidental that he’s about to reach the playoffs for the 10th time in 11 major league seasons with three organizations (Cubs, Red Sox, Phillies). His interpersonal skills make him a unifying force.
They also will boost Schwarber’s value this winter. But free agency isn’t usually a welcoming place for DHs who will begin their next contract at age 33.
Unless maybe they’re coming off a historic walk year.
Gauging the DH market
The Phillies signed Schwarber to a four-year, $79 million contract before the 2022 season. Since then, here’s the home-run leader board in the majors, through Thursday:
— 201 — Judge
— 181 — Schwarber
— 180 — Shohei Ohtani
But the fourth player on the list represents the closest comp to Schwarber. And Pete Alonso, a prodigious power hitter with limited defensive ability, went unsigned last offseason until February before returning to the Mets on a two-year, $54 million deal with an opt-out after this season.
Oh, and Alonso is 21 months younger than Schwarber.
“I think my skill set and who I am as a player, the substance and body of work I provided was definitely good enough to get me a job,” Alonso said. “I mean, I didn’t have my best year [in 2024] and I got a $10 million [annual] pay raise, which is great.”
Just not the long-term, nine-figure deal that he expected.
It didn’t help that the Mets tagged Alonso with a qualifying offer, which limits a free agent’s market by forcing a team to give up draft picks as compensation if they signed him.
The Phillies will surely put a qualifying offer on Schwarber, which will cause some teams to drop out of the bidding. Other front offices are strictly disinclined to doing a three- or four-year, high-dollar deal with a 30-something DH.
But there is a precedent for it. In 2018, J.D. Martinez signed for five years and $110 million with the Red Sox. Although Martinez was younger than Schwarber (the deal covered his age-30 to 34 seasons), he had a similar middle-of-the-order, limited-defense profile. And the Red Sox were being run then by Dave Dombrowski.
Seven years later, Schwarber will surely get a higher annual salary than Martinez’s $22 million. One potential price point: $31.35 million, the average annual value of Rafael Devers’ contract. Devers wasn’t a free agent (he signed an extension with Boston when he was 26 and a third baseman). But he’s primarily a DH now with the Giants.
If Schwarber got four years at, say, $31.5 million annually, the total value of the contract would come to $126 million, a fair prediction, according to multiple league sources.
Among the highest-spending teams, the Dodgers (Ohtani), Yankees (Giancarlo Stanton), Astros (Yordan Alvarez), and Giants (Devers) have DHs. The Mets and Blue Jays might want to use Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., respectively, in that role more often.
But Schwarber won’t lack suitors. Red Sox manager Alex Cora said he’s “very intrigued” by Schwarber’s market. The Padres or Braves may have interest. Schwarber grew up near Cincinnati, and when the Phillies played there last month, the Reds invited his father and a former coach to throw ceremonial first pitches, a not-so-subtle gesture to get him to consider coming home.
“Being a baseball fan, growing up and watching Cincinnati baseball for your whole youth, that’s how you fall in love with baseball,” Schwarber said in July. “Being able to play for your childhood team is something that I think it’d be awesome.”
The Phillies re-signed J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola when they reached the market after the 2020 and 2023 seasons. Across baseball, the guess is that Phillies owner John Middleton won’t let Schwarber leave, either.
“We need no motivation whatsoever when it comes to [wanting to keep] Kyle Schwarber,” Middleton said in July. “He’s great. We thought he was great when we signed him years ago. We thought he’s great consistently during the years. There’s nothing Kyle does that surprises us.
“We love him. We want to keep him.”
Change is coming
Bryce Harper‘s contract runs through 2031, Trea Turner‘s through 2033. Nola is locked up through 2030. The Phillies face a decision on Realmuto, a free agent who turns 35 in March.
Asked in spring training if this season represents the last dance for others in this Phillies core, Schwarber cracked, “Who would want to come out and watch a bunch of 40-year-old dudes play baseball?”
Change is coming, likely soon. Regardless of how and when the season ends, the Phillies will integrate younger players. Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford are nearing the majors; Aidan Miller, too.
Surely, Schwarber could help with the transition — and for reasons that go beyond his power. Not that he has been thinking much about it.
Schwarber often recites wisdom passed down early in his career by former Cubs pitcher Jon Lester, who, incidentally, could’ve written a playbook on excelling during a walk year.
In 2014, Lester rejected a lowball extension offer from the Red Sox, then posted a 2.46 ERA in a career-high 219⅓ innings. Boston traded him at the deadline to the Athletics, whom he helped lead to the playoffs. And he cashed in as a free agent with a six-year, $155 million contract from the Cubs.
Schwarber believes there’s a lesson in Lester’s story.
“Jon Lester said it best: If you’re winning and you focus on winning, that means you’re probably doing something good for the team,” Schwarber said. “And then it all takes care of itself after that.”
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