For Mariners, ALDS Game 5 stakes are clear: Beat Tarik Skubal and Tigers to survive

DETROIT — The stakes are simple for the Seattle Mariners:

Win on Friday in front of a sellout crowd at T-Mobile Park and their magical 2025 season continues into the American League Championship Series and a celebration at home.

Lose at home and the offseason begins prematurely, giving everyone associated with the team days and weeks of diagnosing what went wrong while second-guessing every decision and strategical move along the way.

The 9-3 pasting put on them by the Tigers on Wednesday afternoon forced this situation — a Game 5 with the season on the line.

Detroit has already played what’s felt like a week’s worth of elimination games. The Tigers will give the ball to their ace — left-hander Tarik Skubal — for Game 5. Manager A.J. Hinch made that clear in his media session before Game 4.

“Having Tarik Skubal there gives us optimism and probably gives them a little bit of concern, but there’s a lot of baseball to be played before we’ve earned the right to give Tarik the ball again,” Hinch said pregame.

He was more effusive in his praise postgame.

“Sitting in my chair, one of the easiest things to do and one of the most exciting things to do is hand the ball to the best pitcher in baseball,” Hinch said.

And who will the Mariners be starting?

“We’ll announce that coming up,” manager Dan Wilson said.

Well, OK then. The Mariners don’t have to announce a starting pitcher until Friday afternoon when the lineup is posted. They waited until after winning Game 3 to announce that Bryce Miller would start Game 4.

They logically have two candidates. They could go with George Kirby, who started Seattle’s 3-2, 11-inning loss in Game 1, and would have had an extra rest day, or they could opt for veteran Luis Castillo, who started the Mariners’ 3-2 victory in Game 2, and would be working on normal rest.

“We have lots of confidence in all of our guys,” catcher Cal Raleigh said. “I thought they both threw the ball really well the first time. But it’s game five. Anything can happen. It’s a one-game series. Just go out there and give it your best go, that’s all you can do.”

Kirby pitched five innings, allowing two runs on six hits with a walk and eight strikeouts. He needed 94 pitches to get through the five innings. Kirby’s nemesis Kerry Carpenter hit a two-run homer off him in the fifth inning.

Castillo pitched 4 2/3 scoreless innings, giving up just one hit with four walks and three strikeouts. He was lifted with runners on first and second and two outs in the fifth inning with Carpenter coming to the plate.

So who should they start?

Well, they could actually pitch both Castillo and Kirby in the game, if needed. The winner of Friday’s Game 5 would have Saturday off, with the ALCS starting on Sunday. Logan Gilbert would be on normal rest to make that start, if needed.

Of course, the Mariners can’t worry about who would start Game 1 of the ALCS when they have to face Skubal again on Friday night.

The former Seattle U standout and reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will face the Mariners for a second straight postseason start and for the fourth time this season. He took losses in the two games in the regular season and a no-decision in Game 2, which the Tigers lost.

In the Game 2 start, Skubal worked seven innings and gave up two runs on five hits with a walk and nine strikeouts. The two runs allowed came on a pair of solo homers from Jorge Polanco.

Skubal was in a similar situation a year ago, starting Game 5 of the ALDS on the road in Cleveland. He gave up five runs on six hits in six innings pitched, taking the loss. He was in no mood to relive it in the news conference after Wednesday’s game.

“I’ll let you guys create the narrative,” he said. “I’m just going to do what I do best, and that’s play baseball and create pitches. The game is still the game. I’ll let you guys write the stories and do your jobs, but you’re not going to get anything from me.”

Well, he gave a little bit.

“Like I’ve said before, the experience of playoff baseball, I understand win-or-go-home games are a little bit different, but every game means a ton,” he said. “So it’s not like Game 1 or Game 2 or Game 3 are any different than Game 5 in terms of wins or losses.”

Can the Mariners find a way to beat the Tigers for the fourth time this season with Skubal, the presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner, on the mound?

If they do, it would be similar to Clayton Kershaw’s struggles against St. Louis in 2013. He lost both of this regular season starts to the Cardinals and then both games against them in the NLDS.

While Wilson wouldn’t say anything more on his Game 5 starter, whoever that might be, Hinch was more than happy to discuss his starter.

“We win together, we lose together, but he leads us,” Hinch said. “He’s a big presence going into Game 5. As we get on this plane to go across the country, we’ve got a lot of optimism heading that way because of the presence of Tarik Skubal.”

In 2013, Kershaw lost both of his regular season starts against the Cardinals and then lost both of his postseason starts against them in the NLCS. (He also lost both of his starts against the Cardinals in the 2014 NLDS.)

“We’ve been able to get to Skubal throughout, and we have another chance to do that on Friday,” Wilson said. “Offensively, we’ve done some really good things in this series and continue to do some of those things today. So we will certainly be ready on Friday.”