Tom Krasovic: Padres' most compelling managerial candidate is already on staff

SAN DIEGO — The most interesting candidate to succeed Mike Shildt as Padres manager, at this seemingly early stage?

It’s Ruben Niebla, the team’s pitching coach of the past four years.

I’m surprised to have reached that opinion. Niebla has never managed, nor did he play in the big leagues, and now wouldn’t be the time for a Padres manager to go through profound growing pains. The franchise is in win-now mode.

But Niebla’s expertise at run prevention merits a closer look. Weighing in his favor, he has many relationships within the team. Some of those go beyond the clubhouse. It was Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller who hired Niebla in October 2021, soon before Bob Melvin was hired as manager.

Because he’d never been his team’s top big-league pitching coach, it was a little surprising to learn how highly regarded Niebla was by some Major League personnel when he left his job as the Cleveland Guardians’ assistant pitching coach to become the Padres’ pitching coach. Outside clubs, impressed by Cleveland’s aptitude with pitchers, had kept an eye on him.

“He’s a home run hire,” declared a non-Padres scout in this space.

The Padres’ run prevention stats have vindicated that forecast.

In the four years with Niebla, the Padres have finished second twice and 10th twice. That’s out of 30 Major League clubs.

Yes, Petco Park plays bigger than most venues and helps Preller recruit free-agent pitchers. Exhibit A: Flyball pitcher Nick Pivetta signed a four-year contract with the Padres last offseason and responded with a career-best season at age 32, becoming their ace.

The ballpark advantage goes only so far, however.

In Baseball-Reference.com’s adjusted ERA metric that attempts to account for ballpark disparities, the 2023 and 2025 Padres each finished second overall. The 2021 and 2024 teams ended up 17th and 11th.

The reputation Niebla built in 21 years as a coach with the Guardians, whether he was working with minor leaguers or big leaguers, made him an attractive candidate to multiple clubs entering the 2021-22 offseason. Blocked in Cleveland by much-praised pitching coach Carl Willis, who still holds that job, Niebla would have to leave the franchise if he wanted to oversee a big-league pitching staff. His experience as Cleveland’s minor league pitching coordinator from 2013-19 was viewed as a strength. Having him sharpen Padres efforts in the farm system, not just up top, was part of why Preller hired him.

Cleveland’s manager in Niebla’s big-league run was highly regarded Terry Francona, a former big-league first baseman and outfielder who won the 2004 and 2007 World Series titles as manager of the Boston Red Sox and this year led the Reds to a wild-card berth after coming out of retirement last winter. Francona’s people skills earn him a lot of praise.

Niebla’s roots in Greater San Diego qualify as a nice touch.

One of five boys in his family, he grew up in the Imperial Valley city of Calexico across from Mexicali. He attended Padres games in Mission Valley. A multi-sport athlete for Calexico High School, he went on to pitch for Imperial Valley College and Azusa Pacific University, a private Christian school not far from Dodger Stadium.

He’s fluent in Spanish, a skill that an MLB evaluator with another team called “very helpful” but not essential in the managerial market.

Some teams prefer managers who are former position players, in particular ex-catchers.

On the other hand, former Dodgers pitcher Tommy Lasorda became a Hall of Fame manager with Los Angeles. And Roger Craig, who pitched for three World Series winners with the Dodgers, led the Padres to their first winning season in 1978 as a rookie manager. Eleven years later, Craig guided the San Francisco Giants to the World Series.

When it comes to Padres managerial openings of recent decades, there’s a long list of Padres coaches who attracted media coverage as candidates but did not get the job.

In fact, none of the six managers hired in Preller’s 11 years on the job were promoted from on-field jobs within the organization. Bench coach Dave Roberts and minor league manager Rod Barajas were placeholders, the former managing just one game; they don’t count. Bruce Bochy, a former Padres catcher and minor league manager promoted from third-base coach to replace Jim Riggleman entering the 1995 season, was the franchise’s most recent promotion to manager. Shildt did some on-field coaching for the Padres in 2022 and 2023 when others fell ill, but technically was a senior adviser to player development.

When a manager is short on managerial experience, it’s typical to have a former MLB manager on his coaching staff.

Whoever is managing the Padres come February and in the season opener in March against A.J. Hinch’s Detroit Tigers, projecting how he’ll perform is just that — a projection.

When Melvin’s first Padres team reached the franchise’s first National League Championship Series in 24 years, it seemed Melvin’s lengthy history as a manager and big-league catcher had paid off. Then 2023 happened. Melvin’s second Padres team had the most disappointing season in Padres history.

The Shildt Padres actually matched up with the Shildt Cardinals, drawing praise for their attention to detail and going to the playoffs in both years.

But instead of returning for the 2026 season, the 57-year-old Shildt announced Monday he’s retiring due to stress-induced fatigue.

Later this week, an unwanted parallel to Shildt’s Cardinals era was made known when Shildt, responding to anonymous criticisms by Padres support staff that he could be snippy and insecure, said some of his Cardinals support-staffers made similar complaints.

Keep this in mind: firing Shildt after the 2021 season hasn’t worked out well for the Cardinals. They reached the playoffs in 2022 but haven’t gone back since. Their 91 losses in 2023 were the most by the franchise since 1976. This year, in their fourth season under Shildt’s replacement, Oliver Marmol, they lost 83 games and ranked near MLB’s bottom in defensive efficiency.

Betting on the person — that’s what these hires ultimately boil down to.

Four years after hiring him, Preller should have a good idea who Niebla is.

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