PHILADELPHIA — The lack of hand-wringing about the Phillies bullpen this offseason isn’t too surprising. By the time everyone finishes worrying about the offense, their palms are raw. Nearly half of the starting lineup from Game 1 of the NLDS is no longer under contract. They need to re-sign or replace their catcher, left fielder, center fielder and designated hitter. The guy who was their longtime right fielder is a $20 million sunk cost. Other than that, the bats are looking great.

But, hey, save some angst for the later innings. Dave Dombrowski has 99 problems and a pitcher is one … namely, a pitcher who is capable of locking down high-leverage situations. Even if Jhoan Duran is the guy he has been throughout his career, and if Matt Strahm is the guy he has been during the last three regular seasons, if Jose Alvarado is the guy he was in 2022-23, the Phillies will still need a fourth guy who is better than Orion Kerkering was even before he short-circuited in Game 4 of the NLDS loss to the Dodgers.

That’s true whether Dombrowski realizes it or not. You’d think he would by this point in time. But, then, you’d be thinking. Everyone knows the cliche. Doing the same thing over and over is the definition of Dombrowski’s bullpen plan. As the nation at large celebrates the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, there’s a very good chance that the Phillies will be celebrating the 250th anniversary of realizing they need another reliever six days after the season starts. The Masters isn’t the month of April’s only tradition unlike any other.

It’s getting to the point of mathematical certainty. If ’n’ is the number of high-leverage arms the Phillies need in order to win a postseason series, then ’n-1’ is the number of such arms the Phillies actually have. Feel free to alert the Fields Medal committee.

Look at the list of relievers who have pitched make-or-break innings for the Phillies over the last several postseasons.

Craig Kimbrel? The Phillies probably win a World Series if they have an elite shutdown arm to pitch the ninth inning of Game 3 and/or the eighth inning of Game 4 in the 2023 NLCS.

David Robertson? He faced three batters last postseason, all in Game 1 of the NLDS, two of whom scored.

Jordan Romano? Nope. Just kidding. He didn’t pitch a make-or-break inning in the postseason. Actually, he didn’t pitch any innings.

Jesús Luzardo? He was exactly what the Phillies needed out of the bullpen in the 10th and 11th innings of Game 4 against the Dodgers. There was only one problem. He was their No. 2 starter. And he will be again.

Nobody wants to admit this, but the best way to fix the Phillies offense is to build a roster where the offense doesn’t need to matter so much. It’s easy to forget that the Phillies took a 1-0 lead over the Mets into the eighth inning of Game 1 of the 2024 NLDS before Jeff Hoffman and Strahm combined to allow five runs in the eighth. As lopsided as that series felt in hindsight, the Phillies were two shutdown innings away from potentially heading to New York with a 2-0 series lead. They also blew a 1-0 lead when the bullpen allowed four runs in the bottom of the sixth in Game 4.

Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are fast approaching the points of their careers where the next season probably won’t be as good as the previous one. Same goes for Kyle Schwarber, assuming the Phillies re-sign him. J.T. Realmuto is already there, and re-signing him is still their best option at catcher. At some point, building an elite bullpen becomes a more feasible option than counting on a Max Kepler bounce back season.

Unless we assume that John Middleton is going to bump up his spending to the level of the Dodgers, then we’re wasting our breath arguing that what the Phillies really need is Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso. It would be a silly thing to assume. If you are worth $2 billion, then a $100 million contract is 5% of your net worth. Even us common folk aren’t lighting our cigars with $1,000 dollar bills.

Which brings us to the real issue with the Phillies’ bullpen. You have to squint a lot harder to see a fiscally sound path to improvement. The Orioles just signed closer Ryan Helsley to a two-year, $28 million deal after a lackluster campaign. Braves closer Raisel Iglesias took a big step backward last season and will be 36 years old next year. He just re-signed for one year and $16 million.

Chances are, both of those deals will look awful a year from now. Look at last year’s market. Of the 12 relievers who signed for an AAV of $8.5-plus million, seven finished with an ERA north of 4.30, five of whom had an ERA over 5.00. That group doesn’t include the Mets’ A.J. Minter, who pitched only nine innings after signing for two years and $22 million.

Essentially, the success rate on big-ticket bullpen signings was 33%. Even that is overstating things. The Dodgers spent a combined $39.9 million in AAV on Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Blake Teinen. The odds said that one of them should have panned out. But none of them did.

Unless the Phillies are willing to shell out $20-plus million for Edwin Diaz, they’ll be fishing in treacherous waters. There are a lot more Jordan Romanos than Josh Haders, at pretty much every price point. Dombrowski has found value before with Strahm, Hoffman and Alvarado. He’ll need to do it again in order to win this offseason.

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