Paul Sullivan: How to fill out your March Madness pool sheets without really trying

CHICAGO — It’s easy to go to the experts to fill out your NCAA Tournament pool sheets.

And there are plenty of experts out there, including some at The Athletic, which did more than 1 million simulations of the men’s field and projected Duke over Michigan in the title game, with Houston and Arizona as the other two Final Four teams.

It doesn’t take an expert to see that Duke and Michigan, who played last month, are probably the two most talented teams, or that Arizona and Houston are also popular picks as the best two teams from the best conference, the Big 12.

Even the least knowledgeable college basketball fan can make an educated guess on the Final Four teams based on the seedings and have a fair chance of winning their pool. But it’s the early rounds that separate the experts from the casual fans who just enjoy being part of the March Madness experience.

If you’re looking for such an expert, you’ve come to the wrong place. I’m still trying to figure out how Illinois lost to Wisconsin twice.

But my advice is not to overthink it. The odds of picking a perfect bracket without just guessing or flipping a coin are 1 in 120.2 billion, according to NCAA.com, so don’t waste a lot of time researching the teams.

Go by what your gut tells you, and don’t worry about a team’s NET or KenPom ratings or Wins Above Bubble or Dunk Probability Quotient (sorry, I made that last one up).

Here are a few tips for filling out your pool sheets without obsessing over making the right picks:

Geezers unite

If you’re old and in the way, go with a Final Four of St. John’s, Houston, Tennessee and Arkansas. The four coaches would have an average age of 70: St. John’s Rick Pitino, 73; Tennessee’s Rick Barnes, 71; Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, 70; and Arkansas’ John Calipari, 67.

You also could substitute Michigan State’s 71-year-old Tom Izzo for Pitino on your Final Four menu if you choose to pick the Spartans to beat St. John’s in an Elite Eight matchup. Dick Vitale approves of this pool sheet.

Friends or bust

So no one told you life was gonna be this way? Your pool’s a joke, you’re broke, your school is D.O.A.? If that’s the case, Vanderbilt is your Cinderella pick to win it all.

Vandy finished second in the SEC Tournament after an upset win over top-seeded Florida in the semifinals, and the Commodores actually have a player named Chandler Bing, who was not named after the character on “Friends.”

Even so, could you beeeee any more excited than picking a team with Chandler Bing to go all the way?

Hate picking

In matchups that include a team you hate, always pick the team you hate. That means picking your school’s archrival and, of course, Duke, which everyone hates.

If the team you hate wins, at least you get some satisfaction by having made the right pick. If the team you hate loses, you may have sacrificed your pool chances, but the enjoyment of seeing it knocked out supersedes anything else, especially when it’s Duke.

Fun fact: Stephen Miller went to Duke.

Four underdogs, no waiting

One underdog from each region is enough. Picking the right ones is the hard part. Usually it’s a No. 11 or No. 12 seed, but look for one reasonable upset by a mid-major over a middle-of-the-road team from a power conference, especially one from the Big Ten.

The team with the longest winning streak entering the tournament is 12th-seeded High Point, which faces No. 5 seed Wisconsin in its West Region opener. The Panthers have a 14-game winning streak, and their average scoring margin of 19.7 points is the biggest of any tournament team. They’ll face a Badgers team that wins and dies by the 3-pointer and looks ripe for a letdown.

Akron, the No. 12 seed in the Midwest and guided by former Illinois coach John Groce, has won 18 of 19 and could be primed to knock off fifth-seeded Texas Tech, which lost probable NBA first-round draft pick JT Toppin to a torn ACL.

In the West, Cal Baptist earned its first bid when Utah Valley missed a potential game-tying, last-second alley-oop lob in the WAC title game, a stroke of luck that could be an omen. The 13th-seeded Lancers take on fourth-seeded Kansas, a program still living off its reputation and prone to coming in overconfident.

No. 11 seed VCU will be a popular upset pick against No. 6 seed North Carolina in the South, based on the Tar Heels being without star Caleb Wilson. Go with the flow.

One big, beautiful bracket

The White House office pool should be interesting. Many of your favorite Trump administration characters’ college teams are represented in the tournament, including President Donald Trump himself, who earned his degree from Penn, not Trump University.

Anyway, here’s a Final Four that, if it clicks, could make you the talk of the next big MAGA meeting: Penn (Trump), Miami (Marco Rubio), Virginia (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) and Duke (Miller). No. 14 seed Penn is the biggest underdog of the four, with a low approval rating among pool sheet participants heading into its first-round game against third-seeded Illinois.

Chalk or die

Last year was the first time since 2008 that all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four: Florida, Houston, Duke and Auburn. A No. 1 seed obviously has the best shot at winning, with 14 of the last 18 champions going in as a top seed.

If you insist on being boring and trying to win, go with Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida for your Final Four, with Duke over Arizona in the title game. It’s the safest bet, and you and a few million others can say you got it right.

But remember, if Duke wins, you’ll hate yourself in the morning.