Greg Cote's Week 2 NFL picks

Two things are true about last week, chronologically: 1). The Dolphins in their 33-8 loss in Indy stunk like Limburger cheese left in a car trunk. It was top-to-bottom ineptitude so flagrant it was the talk of the league. 2). Everybody overreacted. No matter the faith-jarring result ... It was one bleepin’ game! Yet the outcry was fire-everybody-and-trade-everybody-else — right now! Comical, almost. So, now what? Miami has a chance in its home opener to reset, reboot and keep the wolves at bay. Or to lose again and see all the noise climb to ear-shattering levels. Lose again and face a near-certain 0-3 start, with at Buffalo on deck four days later on a Thursday night. Rarely has a Week 2 game felt more must-win. And, befitting the mood of most Dolfans, Hard Rock Stadum may present a gloomy tableau, with clouds and a good chance of stormy weather forecast, not to mention loud booing at the first three-and-out. So why do I trust the Fins to win here when zero trust was earned in Week 1? First, the matchup. Miami has won four straight and eight of past nine over the Patriots. New England is on a 2-10 skid in Miami and has not won at HRS since pre-Covid 2019. And the Dolphins have covered the spread nine straight times in this AFC East rivalry. Second, the Patriots and alleged savior Drake Maye are way overhyped, and Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill both should shake off last week with big games vs. this opponent’s iffy pass defense. Also, national embarrassment can’t but slap a hugely better effort from the Fins.

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 2 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

EAGLES (1-0) at CHIEFS (0-1)

Line: PHI by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: KC, 27-23.

TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.

This week’s GOTW debate was brief because, well, it’s the law: A regular-season rematch of the previous year’s Super Bowl is the Game of the Week with no debate heard. (Especially lacking hearty Week 2 alternatives.) Birds spanked Chiefs 40-22 in the last SB, and if you buy into the revenge factor — human nature swears it’s real — then that and the home field has you liking K.C. here. Chiefs have won 13 in a row at home. (The Taylor Swift Effect?) I would get it if you favored Philly, sure. The Eagles have Spittin’ Jalen Carter back, and Patrick Mahomes will be without two key targets in suspended Rashee Rice and injured Xavier Worthy, the latter not ruled out as of Thursday but seen as very doubtful. But give me revenge, Arrowhead magic and Chiefs’ run D. Upset!

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BUCCANEERS (1-0) at TEXANS (0-1)

Line: HOU by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: TB, 19-17.

TV: 7 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “Tampa Bay Baawwks!” There are very few NFL matchups — for me, not even one a week — that are coin-flip close, where I go back and forth and would be fine riding with either team. This Monday night early game is one of those. This is only these teams’ seventh all-time meeting, and Houston has won the past five, but I like Baker Mayfield finding a way here. The two offensive lines will shape the result. Tampa is without star LT Tristan Wirfs, but Houston’s blocking front is shakier overall and Bucs’ rush will bother C.J. Stroud. “Still wrapping my beak around Baker Mayfield being the best QB in a game,” notes U-Bird. “Baker Maaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 2:

Thursday night pick was @Packers (-3 1/2) over Commanders, 30-17: Had Pack winning and comfortably covering. Find that complete prediction capsule separately here.

@Bengals (1-0, -3 1/2) over Jaguars (1-0), 23-20: One of only four 1-0 vs. 1-0 Week 2 matchups, but slow-starting Cincy barely got past Cleveland, and Jax impressed vs. a bad Carolina. Jaguars are not a good road team (1-11 skid), and Bengals have won three straight in series. Look for Joe Burrow to bounce back from a lackluster opening performance but lean Jax with points..

@Cowboys (0-1, -5 1/2) over Giants (0-1), 27-23: Few teams own an opponent like the Boys own the NFC East rival Biggies. Dallas has won eight in a row and 15 of past 16 over NYG. Why stop now? Russell Wilson is one more bad game from losing his QB job, and Giants coach Brian Daboll is hanging onto his job like a man holding onto his hat in a hurricane. Dallas — though on a 2-8 skid at home — is rested after playing last Thursday and keeps streak alive, though I like Giants D-line to help keep it close.

@Lions (0-1, -6 1/2) over Bears (0-1), 31-16: Chicago coach Ben Johnson was Detroit’s offensive coordinator last year, and Week 1 fed the narrative that QB Jared Goff isn’t the same without his play-calling. Watch Lions flip that script with a tour-de-force win that reintroduces them as an NFC power.

Rams (1-0, -5 1/2) over @Titans (0-1), 20-17: Titans rookie QB Cam Ward was sacked a league-high six times last week, and Rams will get to him, too. But Tennessee has won three of the past four meetings, and I like them at home here getting almost a touchdown as Rams perhaps glance ahead to next week’s game with champ Eagles.

49ers (1-0, -3 1/2) over @Saints (0-1), 27-13: San Fran QB Brock Purdy is out at least two weeks with a turf toe-type injury, and TE George Kittle is sidelined, too. Major blow — but one survivable vs. lowly N’Awlins. Christian McCaffrey and that Niners run game will dominate Saints D and enable OK backup QB Mac Jones to play it safe. And Frans D will turn Spencer Rattled.

Bills (1-0, -6 1/2) over @Jets (0-1), 24-20: Both AFC East rivals coming off Week 1 thrillers: Bills’ 41-40 prime-time miracle against Ravens, and Jets’ 34-32 blown-lead heartache vs. Steelers. NYJ won’t stop Josh Allen here, but ground-first Jets can run on Bills, and Justin Fields might find openings in a beat-up Buffs secondary. Enough to stay inside the point spread, anyway.

@Steelers (1-0, -3 1/2) over Seahawks (0-1), 19-13: Seattle has won six straight road games, but Pittsburgh is on a 6-1 run in September and is stout at home. Aaron Rodgers will enjoy a hero’s welcome in Pitt’s home opener, and can strike for big plays vs. Hawks loose pass D. But I foresee a points-shy result steered mostly by Steelers’ defense.

@Ravens (0-1, -11 1/2) over Browns (0-1), 37-16: Baltimore stings from last week’s crazy one-point loss to Bills and will take out all the frustration on Cleveland. Browns have played Crows tough lately (4-3 in past seven), but BAL is on a 14-3 run at home in series. Count on big Lamar Jackso numbers, two turnovers from Joe Flacco and an AFC North rout.

Broncos (1-0, -1 1/2) over @Colts (1-0), 24-13: Miami’s defense (or lack-of) made Daniel Jones look like Peyton Manning last week. Sunday, Denver’s defense will demote him to Daniel Jones again. Broncos have lost seven of last eight trips to Indy, but not this time. Take notes, Dolphins. Watch how a real defense handles the Colts.

@Cardinals (1-0, -6 1/2) over Panthers (0-1), 27-17: Dueling trends: Carolina has won seven of past eight vs. Arizona ... but Carolinas also is on a 2-16 skid on the road. Bottom line I like Kyler Murray vs. Panthers’ soft defense. Was tempted to lean Cats with the points, but that would require trusting Bryce Young more than I do.

@Vikings (1-0, -3 1/2) over Falcons (0-1), 23-20: Atlanta’s Michael Penix-led offense had more yards than Tampa Bay last week in a hard-fought three-point loss, and I like Falcs to stay close here, too. So I’m riding that extra half point on the bet line in this Sunday nighter. Vikes are not the 14-3 power they were last year, and J.J. McCarthy is still settling in.

Chargers (1-0, -3 1/2) over @Raiders (1-0), 27-23: Monday night late game should find Chargers rested after playing last Friday in Brazil, and there’s a good chance Justin Herbert lights up prime time and the Raiders defense. So I like LAC to win and cover, although Vegas-with-points tempts assuming TE Brock Bowers (knee) plays as I expect he will.

Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

A disappointing Week 1 for me. Only the Miami Dolphins had a worse showing out the gate. Having said that, we had diabolical luck of the bad variety. We picked four teams — Jets, Seahawks, Bears and Ravens — that all led late and blew it, costing us four wins straight-up. That 9-7 was headed for 13-3 before the mass, late derailing. Had three underdogs-with-points, at least, on covers by the Cowboys, Jets and Browns. Oh well. Lady Luck and Mister Fate can be a mean couple, uncaring of you or me. Their whims work for or against us with no logic involved. As far as I’m concerned, that means they owe me! Now let’s bounce back big! (Note: Our Thursday night pick was Packers (-3 1/2) over Commanders, 30-17. Find that full prediction capsule separately here.)

Week 1: 9-7, .563 overall; 7-9, .438 against the spread.

Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.