NFL DFS Week 2 optimal lineup

Last week was about not knowing what we didn’t know. This week is about not overreacting.

This week boils down to a simple choice.

Fade what happened in Week 1 or treat it like an opening salvo of what will eventually become our new normal (or whatever resembles normal in the NFL).

Is Daniel Jones and the Colts’ offense really that good? Or are the Dolphins just that bad? I thought Jones would do well in Shane Steichen’s scheme, but Miami’s vibes are off. Mike McDaniel’s team looked terrible on both sides of the ball.

Did Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn steal the essence of the Lions’ offense on their way out the door when they both bolted for head coaching gigs in Chicago and New York? Obviously, we knew Johnson would be missed, but Detroit’s play-calling looked, dare I say, boring.

J.T. Barrett (assistant quarterbacks coach) and Antwaan Randle El (wide receivers coach) followed Johnson to the Windy City. Glenn also took Tanner Engstrand (passing game coordinator) with him to be his offensive coordinator, as well as Steve Heiden (tight ends coach) to be his offensive line coordinator.

That’s a lot of coaching talent for Dan Campbell to replace.

Maybe returning home will help the Lions get their groove back against Johnson and the Bears on Sunday? Utilizing Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown this week is fading what happened last week.

Is the old Aaron Rodgers really back? If the Steelers can protect him, Rodgers will be relevant in fantasy. If they can’t, he’ll just be Aaron Rodgers, who happens to be old.

We learned a lot last week, but Week 1 usually provides more questions than answers and these are just a few of those questions. We’ll learn even more this weekend.

Whatever strategy you used to begin the season, the worst approach this week is to completely rethink it, regardless if it worked or not.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The lineup netted zilch last week, so I’m in the red $5 after a score of 95.52 points.

Week 2 Lineup

— QB: Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($7,000)

I’m counting on the two-time MVP having a bad taste in his mouth after a gut-wrenching loss to Josh Allen and the Bills last Sunday night. I’m also counting on the Browns to keep things competitive enough to force Jackson into Super Saiyan mode until at least the fourth quarter.

— RB: James Conner, Cardinals ($6,600)

Conner is one of two players I’m doubling down on after using them last week, and they happen to form a mini-stack. He wasn’t very efficient against the Saints, but he was more involved in the passing game, catching four passes and a touchdown. Plus, Trey Benson still doesn’t concern me. It also doesn’t look like a historically bad Panthers’ run defense has improved any after watching Travis Etienne torch them for 143 yards on 16 carries.

— RB: Kyren Williams, Rams ($6,300)

The Rams are a road favorite (5 1/2) in Tennessee, which means the game script could feature a heavy dose of Williams. He’s scored 30 TDs in his 28 career starts for L.A.

— WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($6,000)

As three-point underdogs at Pittsburgh, Seattle will likely need to throw to keep pace with the Steelers and JSN finished with a 56.5% TPRR (Targets Per Route Run) against the 49ers last week. Anything above 30 is considered elite. I don’t anticipate Cooper Kupp cutting into this at all. Kupp looks cooked.

— WR: DK Metcalf, Steelers ($5,900)

Rodgers got his revenge against the Jets last week, and I expect him to dial up a few splash plays for Metcalf against his former team.

— WR: Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers ($5,400)

McMillan completes my double-down stack with Conner. He finished with five receptions for 68 yards on nine targets in his NFL debut, but the box score didn’t tell the whole story. McMillan almost made an amazing grab on a play that got flagged for pass interference. He also had a 20-yard gain that was negated by a penalty away from the play. Finally, he was running completely uncovered behind the Jaguars defense, and Bryce Young saw him, but was hit as he released the ball, causing an errant pass.

— TE: David Njoku, Browns ($4,400)

A classic overreaction would be assuming rookie Harold Fannin Jr. has supplanted Njoku as Cleveland’s top tight end. As much as I love Fannin (he was my No. 3 tight end prospect in April’s NFL draft), his solid debut didn’t come at the expense of Njoku. They both played over 70% of the offensive snaps, and the All-Pro was third on the team in routes run, ahead of Fannin.

— FLEX: Jerry Jeudy, Browns ($5,300)

The Ravens are favored by 11 1/2, which means Cleveland should be chasing points all day, and in a high-volume pass game — Joe Flacco threw 45 passes last Sunday — Jeudy has weekly upside. Plus, since I’m playing Jackson à la carte, Jeudy and Njoku combine with the former MVP to create a contrarian stack that should provide leverage on the field.

— DST: L.A. Rams ($3,100)

Only the Broncos and Colts scored more fantasy points than the Rams defense in Week 1. After keeping the Texans out of the end zone, Jared Verse and Co. should feast on Cam Ward and the Titans. Ward’s debut could’ve been worse, but he was sacked six times and held to 112 passing yards.