NFL DFS Week 6 optimal lineup

I’m an eternal optimist. Always have been. Always will be.

My mother hardwired it in me, and please believe, the circumstances weren’t always rosy. When faced with adversity, she’d turn to me and say, “You either believe you can or you can’t. You’re right either way.”

I took it to heart.

I began my journey in journalism at the turn of the century, just in time to experience its complete transformation, mostly wrought by the internet. While one of my early bosses spoke of “opportunities and challenges,” most of my coworkers served up side-eye long before there was an emoji.

I was an on-call agate clerk then, a true art form that’s headed the way of the dodo, and I accepted every opportunity and challenge with a smile on my face.

Even in today’s world, where everyone appears to be under-rested and overwhelmed, and society seems to be sort of stretched too thin, much like J.R.R. Tolkien once wrote, “like butter scraped over too much bread,” … it’s impossible for me to feel cynical.

Skepticism is healthy. Frankly, it’s part of the job, but never cynical. I equate being skeptical to having a functioning immune system, while cynicism is akin to an autoimmune disorder. It’s a self-protective defense mechanism that eventually turns inward, damaging the system it was meant to protect.

So when I’m building hundreds of lineups each week, trying to determine which puzzle pieces fit together on any given Sunday, it’s easy for me to imagine how everything can succeed.

My mind is hardwired to focus on what could go right, but what I’ve realized since I began playing DFS, is it’s equally important to imagine how everything can fail before you lock in that lineup.

You may be planning to build around the Cowboys-Panthers matchup this week, which has the highest game total (49 1/2) on the slate.

Perhaps you’re thinking of paying down at quarterback with Bryce Young ($4,800), and stacking one or two more Carolina players with him, like Rico Dowdle ($5,800) in a revenge narrative, or receiver Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000) against an awful Dallas defense, plus bringing back either George Pickens ($6,800), Javonte Williams ($6,400) or Jake Ferguson ($5,300).

This strategy could help you shoehorn players like Puka Nacua ($8,700), Jonathan Taylor ($8,500) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,400) in your lineup.

The Cowboys’ offense is good enough to force any game into hyperdrive, and their defense is bad enough to allow other teams to come along for the ride, so this game environment is likely dependent on the Panthers’ ability to return punches. Which is exactly where we could fail.

Young’s late-season magic from a year ago appears to have been an illusion. According to FantasyPros, the former No. 1 overall pick ranks 35th in yards per attempt, 29th in passing yards per game, 36th in highly accurate throw rate, and 31st in catchable target rate among 40 qualifying quarterbacks. Plus, his rushing upside has disappeared altogether.

Considering the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the Carolina offense, it’s just as likely Young and Co. can’t keep up. If that happens, Williams and Dallas’ defense, as bad as it is, actually becomes a solid stack with Dak Prescott and his pass catchers likely pumping the breaks earlier than usual.

Which means a good portion of the field likely attacking the slate through this matchup doesn’t get the return they need on their investment.

This is how we find leverage.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $80 this season, so I’m in the red $5 with an average score of 141.40 points through five weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 95.52

— Week 2: 124.90

— Week 3: 181.44

— Week 4: 142.88

— Week 5: 162.24

Week 6 lineup

— QB: Drake Maye, Patriots ($5,900)

Maye is the overall QB7 in fantasy through five weeks, and one of the few quarterbacks on this slate with any rushing upside, which is why I’m comfortable playing him à la carte. Also, the Saints have allowed multiple touchdowns to every QB they’ve faced this season.

— RB: Josh Jacobs, Packers ($7,300)

Jacobs is playing for a two-touchdown favorite at home against a Bengals’ defense allowing the most fantasy points to running backs this season.

— RB: Kyren Williams, Rams ($6,300)

The Rams are a TD favorite on the road, which means the game script should favor a big game by Williams, who would love to erase the memory of his costly fumble at the goal line against the 49ers last week. The Ravens have already allowed 177 points in five games, which is 12 more than the 2000 Ravens allowed in a 16-game season.

— WR: Puka Nacua, Rams ($8,700)

Barring injury, the floor is probably 25 and the ceiling is north of 40. The ceiling is definitely in play with the Ravens allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Also, I doubt many lineups include both Williams and Nacua, outside of those building onslaught stacks featuring the Rams.

— WR: Matthew Golden, Packers ($5,000)

Talented rookies usually get a bump in usage coming off a bye, and Green Bay has a nearly 30-point team total at home against a bad Bengals secondary.

— WR: Calvin Ridley, Titans ($4,900)

The Raiders play the third highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL, and Ridley has historically performed better against zone coverage.

— TE: Hunter Long, Jaguars ($2,500)

Long gets the start with Brenton Strange on IR, providing a lot of salary relief for those of us who want to use Nacua, Taylor or McCaffrey. The Seahawks have allowed the most receptions, the third-most fantasy points and the fifth-most TDs to tight ends.

— FLEX: Ashton Jeanty, Raiders ($6,900)

The Titans have allowed a league-leading 10 rushing TDs in five games and are also allowing 5.0 yards per carry to running backs. I expect Pete Carroll to lean on Jeanty with Brock Bowers out and Geno Smith regressing to his bad ol’ days with the Jets.

— DST: Cleveland Browns ($2,700)

You really can’t run on the Browns, and Aaron Rodgers simply can’t escape a pass-rush the way he used to. Plus, Myles Garrett is as good as he ever was.