Scott Fowler: Playoffs?! Playoffs?! For the Panthers, here's the way to get there.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The Carolina Panthers have an actual shot at making the NFL playoffs.

It’s been a long time since you could write that sentence in mid-November and not be laughed out of the press box. But after a 30-27 overtime win over Atlanta on Sunday, the Panthers are 6-5 and just a half-game out of first place in the NFC South, trailing Tampa Bay.

The Panthers’ playoff chances? Still not great. The Panthers currently have the ninth-best record in the 16-team NFC. Only seven teams make the playoffs. In most NFL playoff simulators, you will see Carolina’s playoff odds hovering at about 22% as of this week.

Still, that’s far better than it has been. The Panthers haven’t made the playoffs since 2017, and also haven’t had a winning record since that same season. The last time they made the playoffs, Cam Newton was the quarterback, Ron Rivera the head coach and Jerry Richardson the owner.

Dave Canales, the Panthers’ current coach, has been trying to get the team into contention since he took over and said so Sunday after Carolina edged the Falcons behind an epic, 448-yard Bryce Young performance.

“That’s exactly the vision and the dream that I hope for, for this group,” Canales said. “If we play good complementary football for a long time, we’ll put ourselves in position for the finish, and we’re in that position right now.”

What’s next for Carolina? Six more regular-season games, starting with an enormous and difficult one at San Francisco on “Monday Night Football” on Nov. 24. The 49ers (7-4) are ranked No. 7 in the NFC at the moment. They would make the postseason if the year ended today, while Carolina wouldn’t, and so it stands to reason that San Francisco is one of the teams Carolina may need to surpass to make the playoffs.

In 2017, the Panthers employed a rookie running back named Christian McCaffrey the last time they got to the postseason; now San Francisco has him, and he’s even better. McCaffrey is tied for second place in the NFL in 2025 with 11 total touchdowns, and the day Carolina traded him away to the 49ers in 2022 will be one of the major subplots of this upcoming game.

So what does Carolina need to do to actually make the playoffs instead of just be a near-miss contender?

The way I see it, the Panthers must go 4-2 over their final six games, so they would finish 10-7. That would almost certainly win the NFC South if two of the wins were over Tampa Bay. But even if the Panthers split with the Bucs,, a 10-7 overall record would give them a good shot at the South and also at a wild-card berth. Of course it is preferable to win the division if you’re to make the playoffs; in that scenario, Carolina would host at least one home game in January. As a wild-card team, a first-round playoff game would be on the road.

But a 3-3 mark over the final six games? I don’t think that would do it for the Panthers, even though it’s not statistically impossible. A 3-3 record would put Carolina at 9-8, clinching the team’s first winning record since 2017. But in a fairly top-heavy NFC, it feels like it wouldn’t be enough. And anything less certainly won’t be. Nobody is making the NFC playoffs this season with a losing record.

The most straightforward path is to win the NFC South over Tampa Bay and former Carolina quarterback Baker Mayfield. Said Panthers offensive tackle Ickey Ekwonu when I asked him Sunday if he thought the team could win the NFC South: “Of course ... 100%. I’m confident in my team, and I know we’ve got a chance.”

The Bucs (6-4) have ruled the South in recent years, much like the Panthers used to in the mid-2010s. They have lost two in a row, though, and that might become three Sunday night against the L.A. Rams (8-2). After that, Tampa Bay has an easier schedule left than the Panthers, which makes the two games against Tampa Bay the most important two the Panthers have left.

Canales, after his euphoric “the vision and the dream” quote Sunday in Atlanta, was back to business Monday, with a week to go before the 49ers’ Monday night game. When I asked him what it would mean for his team to make the playoffs, he didn’t want to talk about the big picture.

“Honestly, we just take it one game at a time,” the second-year head coach said, “and my job is to really just sell the championship moments that we have, the championship opportunity. ... Playing on Monday Night Football against the Niners, a team that I really respect — it’s a great opportunity for us. There’s going to be a couple more cameras out there. It’s going to be under the lights. This will be a great environment for our guys, and (it’s) easy for me to sell just what these games feel like. It’ll feel like a playoff environment, certainly against a playoff-caliber type of team.”

Beyond that showcase lies a fearsome stretch — all teams with winning records save the Saints, a team that already upset the Panthers once.

The final six games for the Panthers will also contain a wild streak of playing against high-profile former Panthers — McCaffrey, Sam Darnold (now with Seattle) and Mayfield (twice). In order, it goes like this for Carolina: at San Francisco Monday; home vs. the L.A. Rams (Nov. 30); bye week; at New Orleans (Dec. 14); home vs. Tampa Bay (Dec. 21); home vs. Seattle (Dec. 27); at Tampa Bay (Jan. 4).

The only way to make it fascinating for the Panthers is to win some more. Carolina is a 7-point underdog to San Francisco, but that’s familiar territory for a team that plays best when it’s not favored (hello, Saints game).

Going 4-2 over the final six will be a tall order. Then again, so was beating Green Bay at Lambeau Field, or beating Atlanta with Young on one good ankle Sunday. This Panthers team has started to make the Carolinas believe again, but there’s so much football to play.

Still, it’s sort of fun, isn’t it?

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