John Romano: If things don't change, judgment day may be coming for Todd Bowles, Buccaneers

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Dec 8, 2025

Published in Football

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TAMPA, Fla. — Eventually, the scoreboard gets everybody in the NFL.

You can hide behind inexperience for a while, you can point at injuries for a spell, you can claim the salary cap, the schedule or the phases of the moon were at fault for a variety of stumbles. But as the losses and heartbreaks begin to accumulate, all those rational explanations begin to sound more like excuses.

Postseason losses caught up to Tony Dungy before he could win a Super Bowl in Tampa Bay.

Back-to-back December swoons cost Jon Gruden not long after winning a Super Bowl.

Interceptions did in Jameis Winston, and a losing record was too much for Tom Brady.

It makes you wonder:

Are the Bucs and Todd Bowles nearing a similar inflection point these days?

The question is worth asking after one of the most demoralizing Tampa Bay losses in recent memory. Playing at home against a team that had lost 22 of its last 27 games and was starting a rookie quarterback with four NFL games under his belt, the Bucs blew a second-half lead and lost 24-20 to the Saints on Sunday.

And now, an NFC South lead that once seemed relatively safe has evaporated. The Bucs have gone 2-5 since Oct. 20 and are tied with the Panthers atop the division. Going into Sunday’s game, ESPN analytics put Tampa Bay’s chances of making the playoffs at 80%. I don’t know what the computers will spit out in the coming hours, but my gut is guessing the Bucs postseason chances are no better than 50/50.

“Who have we been in the past month?” safety Tykee Smith said repeating a question. “I mean, the record speaks for itself. We’ve been losing the last month, so …”

Of course, everything in the NFL is relative. The Panthers are thrilled to be 7-6 because they’re coming off seven consecutive losing seasons under four different head coaches. The Bucs, on the other hand, were expecting something far more grand in 2025.

They had survived Brady’s disappointing final season and eventual retirement. They had endured through a serious salary cap dilemma. They had rebuilt the roster wisely and methodically and had hopes of playing deep into the postseason.

But that’s not how they looked on Sunday. And it’s not how they’ve looked for a couple of months.

You could blame an unnatural number of injuries, and history will one day acknowledge that as a contributing factor. But if you looked around at thousands of empty seats at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon, you got the feeling that fans are less-than-enthralled with this current incarnation of the Bucs.

And, believe me, that’s not the kind of thing that goes unnoticed by ownership.

“I think we just relaxed, really. Just took our foot off the gas pedal,” cornerback Zyon McCollum said of the difference between the first and second halves on Sunday. “Kudos to their quarterback and the Saints offense for dialing up the plays they did, but we’ve got to find ways to get off the field in those situations.

“We just gave it to them, really.”

Asked about losing to a 2-10 team, Bowles countered that it was a division game and division games are always tough. Not to kick a man while he’s down, but that’s a lot of hooey.

The only reason the Bucs have enjoyed success in recent seasons is because their division has been remarkably inept. The Saints are not 2-10 by accident. No team in the NFC has been outscored as much as New Orleans, and nothing short of a biblical catastrophe should excuse a loss like that.

During Bowles’ tenure as head coach, Tampa Bay is 14-7 in NFC South games. The Bucs are 20-23 against everyone else.

That’s another factor that the owners and general manager Jason Licht must consider. Dungy had a more impressive six-year run a generation ago, but the Glazers eventually came to the conclusion that they were in a continuous rut and something had to change.

The problem now is that the same type of issues are beginning to show up repeatedly. The edge rushers are not fierce. The inside linebackers struggle in pass coverage. The offensive line can’t get the job done in short-yardage situations and kick coverage is abysmal.

Two months ago, Baker Mayfield was a leading MVP candidate, Emeka Egbuka was a rookie sensation and Bowles was looking like a guy with a contract extension in his future. Now, they may need to sweep the Panthers on Dec. 21 and Jan. 4 or else the drumbeat of complaints will begin to sound thunderous.

“Nothing I can tell you man, it’s just not going our way,” said edge rusher Yaya Diaby. “We’re not finishing how we need to finish. It sucks, nothing else to say.”

That’s not entirely true. At some point, the Glazer family will have something to say.

Bowles and the Bucs had better change the tenor of the conversation before then.

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