Greg Cote's Week 15 NFL picks

Last week was a bloodbath for many of us in the habit of making public our picks. Not saying I’m happy with 8-6 straight-up and 7-7 vs. the bet line, but relatively speaking I’m OK with it. Nailed our Upset of the Week with Chargers beating Eagles (”Aawwk!”), had two other ‘dogs-with-points on covers by Saints and Steelers, and missed two picks ATS by one point. Four weeks left to hike both season percentages. Our .652 overall would be third of 11 on the ESPN Experts Panel; not bad. Our imperative is to get up over even vs. the spread. Fly, darts! Roll, dice! And do it fast. [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Buccaneers (7-6, -4 1/2) over Falcons (4-9), 24-20.]

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— Week 14: 8-6, .571 overall; 7-7, .500 against the spread.

— Season: 135-72, .652 overall; 98-106-3, .481 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BILLS (9-4) at PATRIOTS (11-2)

Line: BUF by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 30-24.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

New England enjoys the same home dog disrespect factor as Denver does (see immediately below), but there’s a difference. Buffalo has Josh Allen, the motivation of chasing a division rival and good ol’ revenge after losing 23-20 to the Patriots earlier this season. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in one season, as Pats are fixin’ to learn. I also think Buffalo is better all-round, not by a lot, but by enough. Pats have feasted on a mostly fortunate (read: easy) schedule in their 10-game win streak. New England winning obviously would not shock: Pats are off a bye week and on a 15-5 roll at home vs. Buffs. But Bills are a road fave for a reason. In an unusually wide-open NFL season bereft of a consensus super team, Allen and Bills know this might be their last, best shot at finally winning a Super Bowl before that metaphoric window slams shut.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

PACKERS (9-3-1) at BRONCOS (11-2)

Line: GB by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DEN, 23-20.

TV: 4:25 P.M., CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” serenades the Upset Bird. ”Denver Braaawwwk!” Little in sports motivates better than real or perceived disrespect, and the Broncos have both cards in their deck here. A team on a 10-game win streak being a home underdog? That’s rarer than a safety. Especially when that team is riding an 11-game home winning streak. But here sits Denver, a home dog to Green Bay in our GOTW runner-up. Offensive edge to Jordan Love, but Denver’s defense — real good and better at home — counters that. Some trends offset: Like Broncos having lost five of past six when favored ... vs. Packers having lost seven of past eight trips to the Mile High City. I need no trend to lean on, though, to know a very hot team with a top-tier home-field advantage getting points is almost always a good bet. “Denver will be surfing that disrespect like the Big Kahuna,” notes U-Bird. “Disrespaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 14:

Our Thursday night pick was @Buccaneers (7-6, -4 1/2) over Falcons (4-9), 24-20.

@Bears (9-4, -7 1/2) over Browns (3-10), 23-16: This is a Letdown Sandwich Game for Chicago (if there is such a thing): a Bears home game vs. a weak foe wedged in between last week’s loss at rival Green Bay and next week’s home rematch vs. Pack. Chitown will marshal enough attention to win, but I’m leaning Browns with points. Shedeur Sanders has found some rhythm. And Caleb Williams, meet Myles Garrett.

Ravens (6-7, -2 1/2) over @Bengals (4-9), 30-24: Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have been bad lately but still are alive in AFC North chase and need this one somethin’ fierce. Cincy is technically alive in playoff hunt but not really. Ravens had won four straight in division series before Bengals won on Thanksgiving. See a rebound game from L-Jack vs. a Gals’ defense that can’t get off the field on third downs.

@Chiefs (6-7, -5 1/2) over Chargers (9-4), 24-20: The dynasty is wheezing. Analytics put K.C.’s playoff chance at 11.9%, so Patrick Mahomes and the boys are in win-out mode from here. Tough challenge in LAC, but the plump point spread tells you Joe Public’s faith in Mahomes is still there. (If only his receivers would stop dropping his passes?) Chiefs are on 7-1 run in this division series and are 5-2 at Arrowhead. Bolts’ O-line has been a nightmare, but still like Justin Herbert to cover.

@Giants (2-11, -2 1/2) over Commanders (3-10), 27-23: Race for No.1 overall draft pick is crowded, and here are two prime contenders. So the winner loses. Fathom the depth of this haplessness: 15 combined losses in a row, Comms’ eight straight and Biggies’ seven. Washington has worst pass defense in NFL; NYG has worst run D. No result would surprise, but with Jayden Daniels (elbow) ruled out, I’m riding with Giants at home and off a bye.

@Eagles (8-5, -11 1/2) over Raiders (2-11), 31-10: Geno Smith (shoulder) seems unlikely to play, so it’ll be Kenny Pickett running for his health behind a bad O-line and vs. a Philadelphia pass rush that just sacked Justin Herbert seven times. Birds on a 15-2 run at home, and Vegas might have sunk to worst-in-league status. Philly will look like the champs they are against a foe that lives to make opponents look good.

@Jaguars (9-4, -13 1/2) over Jets (3-10), 24-16: Signs of an insane NFL season: Jacksonville favored over anybody by two TDs. Reasons the spread’s this big: Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields both very iffy means raw, undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook likely gets the ball. Even with all the disparity, lean NYJ-plus-points in a score-stingy game. Jets are 8-5 against the spread including the last two covers as double-digit dogs.

@Texans (8-5, -9 1/2) over Cardinals (3-10), 27-13: Opposite Directions Bowl as Texans have won five in a row and Zona has lost five straight. Houston’s defense is as good as any in the league when driven, as we saw in K.C. Sunday night. But will that D be as motivated vs. lowly Cardbirds in what looms as a letdown game? Cards-with-points is tempting as a second helping, but I see HOU’s ground game getting untracked to C.J. Stroud’s benefit.

@Rams (10-3, -6) over Lions (8-5), 34-30: Another GOTW contender in a week with four or five candidates — mainly because a season-high points over/under (55 1/2) foretells a fireworks show as Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff play first-to-30 wins. Rams on a 6-1 run at home vs. Lions, but Motown on an 11-3 streak on the road. I like Stafford exacting revenge against his ex-team and its middling defense. But give me Detroit plus six, please and thanks, especially rested off a game last Thursday.

Panthers (7-6, -2 1/2) over @Saints (3-10), 19-17: Carolina is the worst winning-record team in NFL with a minus-50 points differential — worst by a lot, to me. They are bottom-five in scoring, 31st in defensive sacks, lost 15 of past 20 road games ... just not impressed at all. Perhaps illogically I’ll take Panthers at home off a bye, but anxiously, with a hedge on points. N’Awlins is on a 5-1 home run in rivalry, and an outright win by Saints would surprise me not at all.

@49ers (9-4, -12 1/2) over Titans (2-11), 37-9: San Fran is off a bye and celebrating Christian McCaffrey is Back Day in the Bay. The fantasy-god RB hasn’t gone anywhere but had his second-worst offensive output of year in last game — and a huge rebound is expected vs. bottom-five Titans defense. Point spreads this big usually give one pause, especially with Tenners 8-1-1 ATS in past 10 vs SF. But I see McCaffrey leading a grade-A rout.

@Seahawks (10-3, -14) over Colts (8-5), 28-17: Don’t know I’ve ever seen a more intriguing matchup with this big a point spread. The number shows devastating effect of Indy losing QB Daniel Jones for the year to an Achilles tear. With raw Riley Leonard the backup, there was a chance as of Thursday that 44-year-old recent new-grandpa Philip Rivers could start just days after being hauled out of retirement. Hawks are preparing as if Old Man Rivers will start. (You can’t make this [bleep] up, folks.) Combo of Jonathan Taylor, a Sam Darnold turnover or two and a feelgood comeback by Rivers has me liking Indy to cover.

@Cowboys (6-6-1, -5 1/2) over Vikings (5-8), 27-20: J.J. McCarthy and Vikes’ defense both impressed last week in shutout over lowly Washington, but I don’t see J.J. keeping up with Dak Prescott’s Dallas scoring machine on Sunday night. Two caveats: Minny’s pass-D is above-average, and ‘Boys star WR CeeDee Lamb (concussion) was iffy to play though coach Brian Schottenheimer said he ”feels good” about the chances. Give me Dallas rested off a Thursday game, 4-1-1 at home, on 5-1 run in this series, and win-desperate to boost a teetering 9.7% playoff likelihood.

@Steelers (7-6, -3) over Dolphins (6-7), 21-20: Hot team, meet cold weather. Like, really cold. There is your basic cold weather, then there is weather you ought not be out in unless you are a polar bear. ‘Tis the time on the calendar when every NFL game in a cold-weather city without a dome will be affected by the elements, and Dolphins at Pittsburgh Monday night is high among them, with weather expected in the ‘20s, cloudy, windy and with a chance of light snow. Could be worse; still, Miami, its four-game win streak and its faint playoff hopes face two opponents: Aaron Rodgers’ Steelers, and Ma Nature. I give Miami a fair upset shot here because Fins have been a better team than Pitt the past month-plus, perhaps especially on defense. Steelers defensive star T.J. Watt is iffy to play after being hospitalized Wednesday with a lung issue, and Pitt has not covered the spread in consecutive weeks since Oct 21; that’s an unreliable team. On the other side of consideration, Miami is 1-5 its past six trips to Pittsburgh, is (over)due a stumble, and more pragmatically might be without rising-star RB De’Von Achane, iffy with a rib injury. Venue and weather have me leaning Steelers outright, but with enough hesitation to take Fins with the points.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon.)