Old school vs. new school: Case for Patriots QB Drake Maye as NFL MVP

FOXBORO, Mass. — A fierce debate is raging for NFL MVP, with one more game for Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Rams QB Matthew Stafford to make their cases to voters.

Stafford’s candidacy took a big hit Monday night, when the 11-5 Rams fell on a national stage, 27-24, to the Falcons in a contest in which Stafford went just 22-of-38 with more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two).

Meanwhile, Maye was coming off the best quarterback performance of the season, when he went 19-of-21 for 256 yards with five touchdowns in just two-and-a-half quarters against the Jets. Maye didn’t just look like the MVP in that game, he played like the best quarterback in the NFL.

Maye currently is the betting favorite for the honor at -295, while Stafford presently stands at +225.

“Just an honor,” Maye said Wednesday of being in the running for MVP. “I’ve told everybody that has said some things in the locker room, ‘It’s us. It’s not just me, it’s us in the locker room.’ It’s really a team deal, I think. They say ‘player,’ but I think wins help that. So obviously, there’s been some great seasons around the league from a lot of players, and it’s an honor, but also at the same time, we’ve got work to do.”

The argument for Stafford rests heavily on counting stats. He’s completed 65.2% of his passes for 4,448 yards with a league-leading 42 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 108.8 passer rating. He’s rushed 28 times for minus-2 yards and no touchdowns.

Maye has completed a league-leading 71.7% of his passes for 4,208 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 112.9 passer rating. He’s rushed 98 times for 406 yards with four touchdowns. When discussing traditional stats, it’s worth noting that Maye also leads the NFL with 8.9 yards per attempt.

Including rushing, Maye (4,614) has more total yards than Stafford (4,446), though Stafford (42 TDs) still has Maye beat (34 TDs) in total scores.

Maye’s resume rests more on advanced stats. Maye leads the NFL in QBR with a 76.5 rating, while Stafford (70.1) ranks fourth. We’ll get into this later, but yes, QBR does account for the quality of defense.

Maye leads the NFL in completion percentage over expected (+8.9%), while Stafford ranks 13th (+1.6%). Maye ranks first in EPA (+139.4) and EPA per play (+0.24), while Stafford ranks second and fourth, respectively, in those categories. Maye and Stafford both average 9.0 intended air yards per attempt. Maye has Stafford beat on completed air yards per attempt and per completion.

Stafford (second) does rank higher than Maye in DVOA (fourth), another metric that accounts for the quality of opponent. He also has a higher PFF grade (93.2) than Maye (88.9).

And strength of schedule is the biggest knock against Maye. The Patriots have a .383 strength of schedule and .365 strength of wins, while the Rams have a .555 strength of schedule and .517 strength of wins.

“We play in the National Football League,” Maye said. “Every team’s got great players that get paid a lot of money. So, it’s not like we’re playing, shoot, Foxboro High School down the road. We play who’s on our schedule, and we can’t control that. Just trying to go out there and win. A lot of these teams that we do play are good, and they’re in the National Football League for a reason.”

No, the Patriots can’t control their schedule, but voters can take it into account.

The Patriots and Rams did face six common opponents this season. Maye and the Patriots were 6-0, while the Rams were 4-2. Maye completed 70.0% of his passes with 14 total touchdowns and three interceptions for 292.3 yards per game, a 117.6 passer rating and +0.26 EPA per dropback. Stafford completed 67.2% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions for 255.8 yards per game, a 102.9 passer rating and +0.08 EPA per dropback, per stats pulled by Evan Lazar of Patriots.com.

There are two other cases against Stafford. First, Maye and the 13-3 Patriots won the AFC East title and are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in their conference. The 11-5 Rams finished third in the NFC West and will finish with the No. 6 seed in their conference.

Stafford also has a significantly stronger supporting cast. He essentially has two No. 1 wide receivers in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, one of the best offensive-minded head coaches in Sean McVay and a rushing attack that ranks seventh in EPA per play.

He has a fan in Maye.

“I just watch him on tape a lot; we have some crossover games, and man, he’s special with the football,” Maye said. “The way he throws it and how he fits in tight windows. His no-look, and he’s got some swagger. So, I’m a big fan of his game. I know we played him last year and talked to him briefly after the game, but no, I probably should have went up to him before the game. I’ve been a big fan of his for a long time. Just talk about natural throwers, any platform, any angle, he does it at a really high level, and it’s been fun watching him.”

Maye has one borderline No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs, a very good offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and a rushing attack that ranks 18th in EPA per play.

Stafford has the second-lowest pressure rate this season at 26.8%, while Maye’s ranks 28th at 38.4%.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Stafford backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, could have still led the Rams to the postseason, given the rest of the talent on the roster.

It’s hard to imagine the Patriots finishing this season with a winning record with a backup quarterback instead of Maye.

That’s what the NFL’s Most Valuable Player essentially breaks down to.

Ultimately, voters must decide if they value counting stats or overall efficiency.