Greg Cote's NFL conference championship picks

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Jan 22, 2026

Published in Football

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If only close counted. Two of our three misses against the spread last week were by either one point (in Niners-Seahawks game) or a half point (in Rams-Bears). At least we hit three of four straight-up. Need a strong finish both ways with only three games left in King Sport’s season.

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— Divisional playoffs: 3-1, .750 overall; 1-3, .250 against the spread.

— Postseason total: 6-4, .600 overall; 5-5, .500 against the spread.

— Final regular season: 175-96, .646 overall; 131-135-5, .493 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL CHAMPIONSHIP-ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

No. 2 seed PATRIOTS (16-3) at No. 1 BRONCOS (15-3)

Line: NE by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DEN, 23-20.

TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, CBS/Paramount+.

Upset! (“Oh my! What on Earth is he doing!?” said an incredulous America.) Yeah, I know why New England is the road favorite in its first AFC title game since 2018. I know Denver will be missing starting QB Bo Nix; I follow current events. I also know the following: The Broncos, last this close to the Super Bowl in winning it in 2015, are here primarily via defense, not Nix. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham is solid/reliable and began his career with the Patriots, as if any extra incentive were required. The return of Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins, off IR and expected to play, will help Stidham. Coach Sean Payton is a great motivator and will use Nix’s injury as fuel. Defensive chief Vance Joseph is smart enough to anticipate the twists in coverage and pressure that NE coach Mike Vrabel will bring to try to flummox Stidham. And Denver is on a 9-1 run at its Mile High home. Having said all of that, I still get why the No. 1 seed is and probably should be a home dog to Drake Maye & Co. Still, I think the spread is too big and strongly lean Broncos to cover. My lean to an outright upset is a lot of gut feeling underlined by the Patriots having played measurably the easiest schedule in the league this season. They have not faced a defense as good as Denver’s. It will show.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

No. 5 RAMS (14-5) at No. 1 SEAHAWKS (15-3)

Line: SEA by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 27-23.

TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

Another upset! NFC West rivals split regular-season games decided by two and one point, so let’s start by agreeing this is pretty much a tossup. It’s why Seattle, the top seed and home, is favored by less than the standard three-point home edge — despite riding a six-game home win streak. Part of that may be the Rams having won nine of past 13 meetings. Seahawks are better defensively, but Rams have as much of an edge on offense led by Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. Stafford may be headed to his first career NFL MVP award, and it may be decided Sunday with Stafford and Drake Maye seen as the front-runners. I certainly trust Stafford, even getting past a hand injury, more than Sam Darnold, whose 14 interceptions led all playoff QBs and who hasn’t been great vs. the Rams. But expect heavy dose of Williams, too. The winner here will be the Super Bowl favorite over either New England or Denver. Rams and Seahawks for me are two best teams in the league right now, with L.A. playing for the NFC crown for the first time since 2021 and Seattle since 2014. And in a series that has skewed high-scoring in recent years, I’m going to saddle up the better offense here. With confidence, that’s the one with Stafford in charge.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon.)