DENVER — J.K. Dobbins is the Chrysler Pacifica of NFL tailbacks. He’s smooth and agile for his size. He corners like a charm. He gets you from Point A to Point B, and comfortably, in all kinds of weather. But after those first two years, good luck keeping him running and on the road.

“I don’t think I’m ‘injury-prone,'” the Broncos tailback, a free agent who’ll reportedly return to Denver on a two-year deal, told us in January. “Because I think when you’re ‘injury-prone’, you get hurt, like, any way possible. But things that I’ve had are called unfortunate events.”

Dobbins is a delight to watch and even more fun to talk to. But he sure does stumble into unfortunate events an awful lot for an NFL lead back, doesn’t he?

Over six seasons as a pro, Dobbins has appeared in 15 or more games just once and in 13 or more only twice. He logged 10 strong games in orange and blue a year ago before a foot injury ended his 2025. He’s made eight or fewer appearances three different times (2021, 2022, 2023). Since 2021, he’s already undergone surgeries to repair an ACL and a foot.

If you’re coach Sean Payton, and you’re trusting this ride, best have the right insurance to go with it.

In Dobbins’ case, that’s not RJ Harvey. That’s not Jaleel McLaughlin. That’s sure as heck not Tyler Badie. Running it back with Dobbins means you’ll get half a season of elite, RB1 production. It also means you’ll need to grab another RB1 for the seven or eight weeks in which Dobbins won’t be available.

Someone who can work it the way Dobbins does between the tackles. Someone who can run in the snow. Someone who can push the pile and turn a 3-yard loss into a 2-yard gain.

The Broncos needed Dobbins in the playoffs. Quarterback Bo Nix needed Dobbins in the playoffs. Dobbins wasn’t there.

You have to prepare — and assume — that he won’t be again. You have to plan accordingly. Which means either you:

— Rest Dobbins until Week 5 or Week 6, so you’ve got those tires fresh for when you really need them;

— Sign or draft another bell-cow type runner, a good inside rusher who’ll be there for all the games that Dobbins won’t.

The problem isn’t that the Broncos aren’t good. They still are. The problem is that their peers used Monday’s legal tampering window to get better.

The Kansas City Chiefs signed former Seattle tailback, Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, on a three-year, $43.05.million-dollar deal. Ex-Jacksonville lead back Travis Etienne went to New Orleans on a four-year deal worth $13 million annually. Another free-agent back, Tyler Allgeier, landed a two-year, $12.25 million contract with Arizona. Kenneth Gainwell got two years, $14 million from Tampa Bay.

And yes, of those four, only Etienne and Walker offer a clear upgrade over Dobbins, who rushed for 772 yards last fall over 10 games with the Broncos.

The issue isn’t quality. Dobbins was great last fall when defenders stacked the box. He was good on first and second down. He can block. He can catch. He pairs well as “Mr. Inside” with Harvey’s “Mr. Outside.” His teammates dug him, and vice versa.

The former Ohio State standout has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in any season he’s recorded more than 10 touches. He’s a sure-fire 1,000-yard rusher if you can count on him for 17 games.

But that’s the thing: You can’t.

Planning for more than 11 contests out of Dobbins, something only produced twice over his first six NFL seasons, isn’t just arrogant. It’s ignorant.

He’s a top-6-in-the-league, lead-back hammer. For about three months. He’s the Broncos’ Aaron Gordon. You have to use what tread is left wisely.

Because like Gordon, this team wasn’t the same without him. After Dobbins was shelved before Week 11, the Broncos still had seven more regular-season games on the fight card and two more postseason tussles — and would’ve been three if Nix had been healthy.

And one of the reasons Nix wasn’t healthy was that the signal-caller had to pick up more slack in the run game once Dobbins was gone. In those eight games immediately after No. 27 was injured, the Broncos’ QB1 led the team in rush yards in two of those eight games and in rush attempts once. Bo’s ankle went kablooey at the end of the win over the Buffalo Bills, and the rest is sad, sordid history.

There are miles to go in free agency yet, granted. But Monday’s disappointment stems from the promises made by management and ownership. The Russell Wilson cap hell is over. What happened to “opportunistically aggressive,” as CEO Greg Penner termed it? What happened to “pushing it” on the open market, as general manager George Paton promised?

Fortune rarely smiles twice on the same backside. The Broncos were 12-2 in one-score games during the regular season. That’s hard to sustain. In 2024, Kansas City went 11-0 in tilts decided by eight points or fewer. The Chiefs had a 1-9 mark in one-score contests last fall. That’s a volatile way to win games, not a reliable one.

Paton will argue that running it back with Dobbins was cost-effective, that it gives the Broncos flexibility. For whom? For when? Nix isn’t going to be on a rookie contract forever. If history has taught us anything, it’s only a matter of time before Dobbins’ gears start slipping again.

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