Retooled Avalanche roster is Stanley Cup-worthy, but the long-term risk is considerable

The Colorado Avalanche is a better team now than it was six weeks ago, with a roster capable of winning the Stanley Cup.

What did it cost? The answer might be “Who cares?” if the Avs spend this summer parading the big, silver trophy around their hometowns. If not, it could leave the club in a perilous position.

The reality is that the Avs are not just “all-in” to win a second championship in four seasons. Given the quality and quantity of future assets expended, this is more than that.

The Avs have put the highest possible award within reach, but with an incredible amount of risk attached.

“I didn’t go in — Joe (Sakic), myself, our staff — into September thinking, ‘We’ve got a lot of work to do,'” Avs GM Chris MacFarland said. “You wish that everything goes hunky-dory and you’re healthy and everyone is playing up to their level. That’s not the reality this year. You certainly can’t plan for injuries, adversity and that sort of thing.

“I think we had to make adjustments.”

Colorado was all-in a year ago, adding four players in the days leading up to the deadline. This has been a completely different kind of season.

MacFarland has made seven trades since October. The biggest was six weeks ago, sending superstar Mikko Rantanen to Carolina for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and two draft picks.

Every move since then has been to bolster the club’s depth, with an emphasis on adding size, grit and physicality as well. Brock Nelson, Ryan Lindgren, Charlie Coyle, Jimmy Vesey and Erik Johnson all offer variations of those attributes.

The Avs have gone from playing 10 or 11 established NHL forwards some nights to having 14 available. Coach Jared Bednar can now deploy Nelson, Charlie Coyle and Drury at center behind Nathan MacKinnon, with other options (Parker Kelly, Ross Colton) on the table as well.

He can go big and sturdy on defense when needed as well.

“I don’t know about lacking (size),” MacFarland said. “Definitely thought we needed to get a little bit bigger. … You just want to be well-versed to play any type of game, whether it’s in the gritty areas of the ice, ground and pound, or attack. I think with this group, we’re more well-versed to handle different types of games that we potentially could face.”

The cost to make all of these additions is staggering. Colorado has no picks left in the first three rounds of the 2025 or 2026 NHL drafts. The club’s top prospect, Calum Ritchie, is gone. So too is William Zellers, a 2024 third-round pick who was among the top four to six prospects thanks to a breakout year in the USHL.

So, too, is Casey Mittelstadt, the prize addition a year ago. He looked like the long-term solution as the No. 2 center behind MacKinnon upon arrival, but his tenure lasted one year and one day after he was sent away before Friday’s trade deadline.

Nelson, a 33-year-old pending free agent, is now the club’s No. 2 center.

Nelson makes the team better right now. But if he leaves as a free agent in July, the Avs are back to square one at the spot that’s given them fits since Nazem Kadri left — while also severely lacking in future assets to help find a solution.

Lindgren is also a pending UFA. Necas, Drury and Coyle are all free agents after next season. The long-term futures of captain Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin, for different reasons, remain uncertain.

There’s a path forward in which the moves of the past six weeks shorten, not extend, Colorado’s contention window.

“Sometimes it’s a more limited window,” MacFarland said. “I think ours hopefully will be extended with players like Nate and Cale (Makar).

“We have a lot of other really quality hockey players. … We feel we have a good team. Their on-ice play merits those decisions year-to-year. Sometimes it’s limited, but hopefully our window is going to be pretty long here, and doing what we did is a reflection of their commitment and what they do on the ice.”

It’s been “Cup or bust” for several seasons in Denver. This team is loaded up and ready for a deep playoff run.

One potential problem? The Avs aren’t alone.

This roster is more capable of winning 16 playoff games than the one from a week ago or six weeks ago, but Dallas, Edmonton, Vegas and Winnipeg all boast formidable lineups as well.

Barring an upset, the Avs will likely need to beat three of those teams to reach the Stanley Cup Final. The most likely first-round opponent right now?

That would be the Stars, who just made the biggest splash of the deadline by adding Rantanen from the Hurricanes in exchange for Logan Stankoven and draft picks.

Whichever team wins a Dallas-Colorado first-round series might be the favorite to win the Stanley Cup. It’s also going to be a coin flip for those two clubs to advance once, let alone three times.

The risk is a first-round flameout and all sorts of uncertainty moving forward. The potential reward is a place in hockey immortality, joining a small group of teams to win two championships with the same core.

“Our guys, that’s the expectation,” MacFarland said. “It’s been building forever. They’re in it to try and do damage, not just get a playoff spot. We’ll see where the chips fall at the end.

“The offseason is for the offseason. We’ll figure that out as we move along.”

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