He barely made the Kentucky Derby. Now, he's a major threat in the Belmont.

Cameron Drummond, Lexington Herald-Leader on Jun 6, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

Baeza has gone from a horse that barely made the Kentucky Derby starting gate to one of the trendy choices to win Saturday night’s 157th running of the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes.

The John Shirreffs trainee was an also-eligible entrant for the 2025 Derby, before drawing into the field after Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez scratched from the race.

Baeza made good on his opportunity, scoring a late-running third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby slop behind runner-up Journalism and champion Sovereignty.

Now, all three horses are back to face each other again in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, which will take place at a shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

To be clear, there was substantial buzz about the potential of Baeza even before his third-place effort in the Run for the Roses. After claiming his first, and still only, win in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita Park in February, Baeza ran an impressive race in the Santa Anita Derby, coming in second and finishing less than a length behind Journalism after a stretch duel.

Baeza — who will begin the eight-horse Belmont from post position No. 6 — already has plenty of backers for the race. He is the third choice in the morning-line odds to win the race at 4-1. Sovereignty is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and race favorite Journalism is the 8-5 favorite.

It’s no surprise that the top three choices on the morning line for the Belmont are also the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby, although in a different order after Journalism’s comeback win in the Preakness Stakes.

This marks the first time since 2013 that the top three finishers from the Derby will all be running in the Belmont Stakes.

“(Journalism) is going to be a very difficult horse to beat,” Shirreffs said Tuesday afternoon. “But Baeza is emerging and Baeza is developing. We were close to (Journalism) at Santa Anita. We were making up a lot of ground at Churchill. So hopefully we can turn the tables this time.”

Some of the enthusiasm for Baeza is likely due to his championship bloodlines.

Baeza is a son of McKinzie and Puca.

McKinzie was a runner in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Classic and finished second in that race in 2019. Puca is a Big Brown mare who finished 12th in the 2015 Kentucky Oaks.

Baeza is also a half-brother to both last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Dornoch, and the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. A pair of half-siblings also won back-to-back editions of the Belmont Stakes in 2006 and 2007 (Jazil and filly Rags to Riches).

“We are really blessed with his pedigree, because pedigree means a lot, especially in classic races and races (where) there’s a lot of stress and a horse has to maintain themselves,” Shirreffs said.

Baeza — who has finished in the money in all four of his starts this year — clearly has enough talent to deliver the 80-year-old Shirreffs his second classic win as a trainer. Shirreffs’ only Triple Crown victory to date came with 50-1 long shot Giacomo in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

“It’s all about position and pace,” Shirreffs said of what would go into winning this year’s Belmont. “Hopefully we get out of the gate well and get a nice pace. Then, obviously you want to see your horse get in that glide rhythm. They’re just striding along. They’re not using a lot of energy and having something left for the finish.”

A triumph in the Belmont Stakes would carry plenty of meaning for Shirreffs. While he’s now based at Santa Anita in California, Shirreffs grew up spending time on Long Island in New York.

This year’s Belmont Stakes is the second straight edition of the race to be held at Saratoga while Belmont Park undergoes renovations. Still, adding a Belmont to his career accolades would be a big deal to the veteran conditioner.

“Being a native New Yorker, that would be the greatest thing, right? I’d love to win the Belmont,” Shirreffs said. “I was at the draw, and I was looking at that trophy. I said, ‘Wow, what a nice trophy that is.’ So, you know, Belmont is so historic and the race is historic. There are legends over there. So it’d be just wonderful to win the Belmont.”

A win on Saturday night would also be a fitting tribute to Baeza’s namesake. The horse is named after Hall of Fame jockey Braulio Baeza. Originally from Panama, Baeza rode three Belmont Stakes winners in his career: Sherluck (1961), Chateaugay (1963) and Arts and Letters (1969).

The Belmont is the only classic missing from the trophy case of Baeza’s jockey, Flavien Prat, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House and the 2021 Preakness Stakes with Rombauer.