US sees Russia, Ukraine choosing a longer war over a bad deal

Tony Capaccio and Natalia Drozdiak, Bloomberg News on Mar 25, 2025

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WASHINGTON — Russia and Ukraine may see a greater incentive to prolong the three-year conflict instead of rushing into a full settlement, according to an assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that clashes with President Donald Trump’s pledges for a rapid end to the three-year conflict.

Although both sides have shown willingness to test partial ceasefires, “leaders for now probably still see the risks of a longer war as less than those of an unsatisfying settlement,” according to the Director of National Intelligence’s latest unclassified assessment published Tuesday.

The intelligence assessment was presented Tuesday at the Senate Intelligence Committee’s hearing on the annual Worldwide Threat report, where top intelligence officials including Tulsi Gabbard and CIA Director John Ratcliffe testified. It comes as the Trump administration has been pressing both sides to stop the fighting.

The hearing was largely overshadowed by revelations this week that top Trump officials — including Ratcliffe and Gabbard — discussed highly classified information on a nongovernmental messaging app with the top editor of The Atlantic inadvertently included.

On other major issues, Gabbard testified that:

—China: The intelligence community assesses “that China is our most capable, strategic competitor. Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic of China seeks to position itself as a leading power on the world stage, economically, technologically and militarily.”

—Iran: Intelligence agencies continue to “assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader (Ali) Khomeini has not authorized a nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”

—Climate Change: The new report appears to have eliminated any reference to the threat from climate change, which was cited in last year’s report as placing more of the world’s population at risk. Gabbard testified that the latest report focused instead “on the most extreme and direct threats” to national security.

Gabbard and FBI Director Kash Patel also elevated crime and drugs brought by migrants into the United States as one of the major threats to the U.S., in keeping with Trump’s priority on sealing U.S. borders.

On the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, Trump administration officials are aiming to reach a full ceasefire as soon as April 20, Bloomberg reported previously, but that timeline has been seen by Ukrainian and European officials as overly ambitious given moves by President Vladimir Putin that appear to be aimed at prolonging the discussions.

According to the White House, Russia and Ukraine agreed Tuesday on implementing partial ceasefires to protect civilian navigation in the Black Sea and to “develop measures” to ban strikes against energy facilities in Ukraine and Russia.

For Putin, “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia without substantial security guarantees from the West could prompt domestic backlash and future insecurity,” according to the annual intelligence assessment.

Nonetheless, both Putin and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy probably understand the risks of a prolonged war. A protracted conflict could drag down the Russian economy and risks “undesired escalation with the West,” while for Ukraine, Zelenskyy likely understands that the future of Western assistance is uncertain, the report found.

Moscow also retains the momentum on the battlefield as a grinding war of attrition plays to Russia’s military advantages and “will lead to a gradual but steady erosion of Kyiv’s position on the battlefield, regardless of any U.S. or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow.”

The U.S. intelligence community also continues to see a risk that Putin may resort to nuclear weapons. “Russia’s inability to achieve quick and decisive battlefield wins, coupled with Ukrainian strikes within Russia, continues to drive concerns that Putin might use nuclear weapons,” according to the assessment.

In the past, Trump has been angered when the intelligence chiefs offered an assessment at odds with his position. In 2019, during Trump’s previous term, they expressed less optimism than the president on topics including the persistence of Islamic State terrorism and threats from the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea. Trump attacked them on Twitter, calling them “naive” and saying that “Perhaps Intelligence should go back to school!”

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(With assistance from Ramsey Al-Rikabi.)