Tropical Storm Erin intensifies, projected to grow into 125 mph Cat 3 hurricane, NHC says

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 14, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Erin on Thursday began to intensify with the National Hurricane Center projecting it to become the season’s first hurricane on Friday and grow into a major Category 3 hurricane this weekend, but its path looks to steer it clear of landfall for now.

As of the NHC’s 5 a.m. advisory, the center of Erin was located about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean moving west at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend out 60 miles.

“This general motion is expected to continue today, with a west-northwestward motion beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend,” said NHC hurricane specialist Larry Kelly. “On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.”

The system, which passed by the Cape Verde Islands earlier in the week, causing flash floods that were blamed for nine deaths, has been moving quickly across the Atlantic.

“Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, with more significant intensification possible on Friday and Saturday,” Kelly said.

The forecast track show Erin developing into a Category 1 hurricane by Friday afternoon with 80 mph winds, and growing further to major hurricane strength early Sunday with 115 mph winds and 140 mph gusts. By early Tuesday, that strength is forecast to grow to 125 mph sustained winds with 155 mph gusts.

The system will be moving across warmer waters and models show it will face less wind shear allowing for more development.

“This increasingly favorable environment could result in a period of rapid intensification,” Kelly said. “There continues to be confidence that Erin will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend.”

The cone of uncertainty continues to favor its center remaining away from land, although the storm’s breadth could still affect the northwest Caribbean islands and Bahamas.

While there are no watches or warnings in place, the NHC advised the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to monitor Erin’s progress.

Tropical-storm-force winds could begin to be felt by Friday night and into the weekend in the Leewards and by Sunday in the Bahamas. Swells from the storm will soon begin to hit the islands.

“While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing,” the NHC stated.

Erin’s impact on Florida could be limited to hazardous boating conditions and dangerous surf by early next week.

In addition to Erin, the NHC continued to keep tabs on a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche west of the Yucatan Peninsula.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the system was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and forecast to emerge off the coast and move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or two.

“Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development,” forecasters said. “The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday, ending its chances of tropical cyclone formation.”

Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days.

The NHC gave it a 20% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

After Erin, the next name on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season would be Fernand.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated its season forecast now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

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